Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change
Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM _2.5 ) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogeni...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034005 |
| _version_ | 1797748396914638848 |
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| author | Raquel A Silva J Jason West Yuqiang Zhang Susan C Anenberg Jean-François Lamarque Drew T Shindell William J Collins Stig Dalsoren Greg Faluvegi Gerd Folberth Larry W Horowitz Tatsuya Nagashima Vaishali Naik Steven Rumbold Ragnhild Skeie Kengo Sudo Toshihiko Takemura Daniel Bergmann Philip Cameron-Smith Irene Cionni Ruth M Doherty Veronika Eyring Beatrice Josse I A MacKenzie David Plummer Mattia Righi David S Stevenson Sarah Strode Sophie Szopa Guang Zeng |
| author_facet | Raquel A Silva J Jason West Yuqiang Zhang Susan C Anenberg Jean-François Lamarque Drew T Shindell William J Collins Stig Dalsoren Greg Faluvegi Gerd Folberth Larry W Horowitz Tatsuya Nagashima Vaishali Naik Steven Rumbold Ragnhild Skeie Kengo Sudo Toshihiko Takemura Daniel Bergmann Philip Cameron-Smith Irene Cionni Ruth M Doherty Veronika Eyring Beatrice Josse I A MacKenzie David Plummer Mattia Righi David S Stevenson Sarah Strode Sophie Szopa Guang Zeng |
| author_sort | Raquel A Silva |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM _2.5 ) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM _2.5 -related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr ^−1 due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM _2.5 . The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:04:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f89a184b88784913840782b0778da8f3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:04:09Z |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-f89a184b88784913840782b0778da8f32023-08-09T14:27:17ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262013-01-018303400510.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034005Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate changeRaquel A Silva0J Jason West1Yuqiang Zhang2Susan C Anenberg3Jean-François Lamarque4Drew T Shindell5William J Collins6Stig Dalsoren7Greg Faluvegi8Gerd Folberth9Larry W Horowitz10Tatsuya Nagashima11Vaishali Naik12Steven Rumbold13Ragnhild Skeie14Kengo Sudo15Toshihiko Takemura16Daniel Bergmann17Philip Cameron-Smith18Irene Cionni19Ruth M Doherty20Veronika Eyring21Beatrice Josse22I A MacKenzie23David Plummer24Mattia Righi25David S Stevenson26Sarah Strode27Sophie Szopa28Guang Zeng29Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina , Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USAEnvironmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina , Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USAEnvironmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina , Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USAUS Environmental Protection Agency , Washington, DC 20004, USANCAR Earth System Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research , Boulder, CO 80301, USANASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Earth Institute , New York, NY, USADepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, UKCICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo , Oslo, NorwayNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Earth Institute , New York, NY, USAHadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met Office , Exeter, UKNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory , Princeton, NJ 08540, USANational Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, JapanUCAR/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory , Princeton, NJ 08540, USAHadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met Office , Exeter, UKCICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo , Oslo, NorwayEarth and Environmental Science, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University , Nagoya, JapanResearch Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University , Fukuoka, JapanLawrence Livermore National Laboratory , Livermore, CA, USALawrence Livermore National Laboratory , Livermore, CA, USAAgenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l’Energia e lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile (ENEA) , Bologna, ItalySchool of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, UKDeutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre , Oberpfaffenhofen, GermanyGAME/CNRM, Meteo-France, CNRS—Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Toulouse , FranceSchool of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, UKCanadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Environment Canada , Victoria, BC, CanadaDeutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre , Oberpfaffenhofen, GermanySchool of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, UKNASA Goddard Space Flight Center , Greenbelt, MD, USA; Universities Space Research Association , Columbia, MD, USALaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE-CEA-CNRS-UVSQ , Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceNational Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research , Lauder, New ZealandIncreased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM _2.5 ) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM _2.5 -related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr ^−1 due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM _2.5 . The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034005climate changeair pollutionozoneparticulate matterhuman healthpremature mortality |
| spellingShingle | Raquel A Silva J Jason West Yuqiang Zhang Susan C Anenberg Jean-François Lamarque Drew T Shindell William J Collins Stig Dalsoren Greg Faluvegi Gerd Folberth Larry W Horowitz Tatsuya Nagashima Vaishali Naik Steven Rumbold Ragnhild Skeie Kengo Sudo Toshihiko Takemura Daniel Bergmann Philip Cameron-Smith Irene Cionni Ruth M Doherty Veronika Eyring Beatrice Josse I A MacKenzie David Plummer Mattia Righi David S Stevenson Sarah Strode Sophie Szopa Guang Zeng Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change Environmental Research Letters climate change air pollution ozone particulate matter human health premature mortality |
| title | Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change |
| title_full | Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change |
| title_fullStr | Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change |
| title_short | Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change |
| title_sort | global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change |
| topic | climate change air pollution ozone particulate matter human health premature mortality |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034005 |
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