Unveiling urban area growth dynamics: insights from a comprehensive study of urban area growth curves
ABSTRACTAmidst rapid global urbanization, comprehending urban area growth (UAG) dynamics is vital for urban planning and sustainability. Despite ample urban development research, the historical developmental patterns of UAG remain underexplored. Long-term UAG exhibits an initial acceleration followe...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2024-12-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Digital Earth |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2024.2339361 |
| _version_ | 1827289187288612864 |
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| author | Haoyu Wang Lubin Bai Shuping Xiong Shihong Du Xiuyuan Zhang |
| author_facet | Haoyu Wang Lubin Bai Shuping Xiong Shihong Du Xiuyuan Zhang |
| author_sort | Haoyu Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACTAmidst rapid global urbanization, comprehending urban area growth (UAG) dynamics is vital for urban planning and sustainability. Despite ample urban development research, the historical developmental patterns of UAG remain underexplored. Long-term UAG exhibits an initial acceleration followed by deceleration, thus, using 200-years UAG data from the U.S., we meticulously compare the S-shaped curve (Logistics and Gompertz models) with other time-series models, and unveil insights into UAG's intricacies by examining how S-shaped models perform across different urban stages. Notably, the Logistics model emerges as the more accurate modeling tool, boasting an RMSE of 0.019, which surpasses the Gompertz model's 0.032. Moreover, the parameters of the S-curve explicitly describe the fundamental properties of UAG, and we unveil the remarkable stability of the maximum growth rate in the S-shaped model through a thorough parameter analysis, which underscores its role as a reliable and universally applicable assessment tool for UAG. Fundamentally, this meticulously analytical research delves deep into the complexities of the UAG curve, robustly confirming the S-shaped trend as the ‘realistic’ consequence of UAG over time. Importantly, this enduring S-shaped trend remains consistent across historical and contemporary contexts. These findings significantly advance our understanding of UAG dynamics for informed urban planning and development. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T11:46:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f8ae1ae9ab484c4db1e0de1b1fae856f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1753-8947 1753-8955 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T11:46:29Z |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Digital Earth |
| spelling | doaj.art-f8ae1ae9ab484c4db1e0de1b1fae856f2024-04-09T10:43:00ZengTaylor & Francis GroupInternational Journal of Digital Earth1753-89471753-89552024-12-0117112710.1080/17538947.2024.2339361Unveiling urban area growth dynamics: insights from a comprehensive study of urban area growth curvesHaoyu Wang0Lubin Bai1Shuping Xiong2Shihong Du3Xiuyuan Zhang4Institute of Remote Sensing and GIS, Peking University, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaInstitute of Remote Sensing and GIS, Peking University, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaInstitute of Remote Sensing and GIS, Peking University, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, People’s Republic of ChinaInstitute of Remote Sensing and GIS, Peking University, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaABSTRACTAmidst rapid global urbanization, comprehending urban area growth (UAG) dynamics is vital for urban planning and sustainability. Despite ample urban development research, the historical developmental patterns of UAG remain underexplored. Long-term UAG exhibits an initial acceleration followed by deceleration, thus, using 200-years UAG data from the U.S., we meticulously compare the S-shaped curve (Logistics and Gompertz models) with other time-series models, and unveil insights into UAG's intricacies by examining how S-shaped models perform across different urban stages. Notably, the Logistics model emerges as the more accurate modeling tool, boasting an RMSE of 0.019, which surpasses the Gompertz model's 0.032. Moreover, the parameters of the S-curve explicitly describe the fundamental properties of UAG, and we unveil the remarkable stability of the maximum growth rate in the S-shaped model through a thorough parameter analysis, which underscores its role as a reliable and universally applicable assessment tool for UAG. Fundamentally, this meticulously analytical research delves deep into the complexities of the UAG curve, robustly confirming the S-shaped trend as the ‘realistic’ consequence of UAG over time. Importantly, this enduring S-shaped trend remains consistent across historical and contemporary contexts. These findings significantly advance our understanding of UAG dynamics for informed urban planning and development.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2024.2339361Urban area growthS-shaped curvelogistics modelgompertz modelmaximum growth rate |
| spellingShingle | Haoyu Wang Lubin Bai Shuping Xiong Shihong Du Xiuyuan Zhang Unveiling urban area growth dynamics: insights from a comprehensive study of urban area growth curves International Journal of Digital Earth Urban area growth S-shaped curve logistics model gompertz model maximum growth rate |
| title | Unveiling urban area growth dynamics: insights from a comprehensive study of urban area growth curves |
| title_full | Unveiling urban area growth dynamics: insights from a comprehensive study of urban area growth curves |
| title_fullStr | Unveiling urban area growth dynamics: insights from a comprehensive study of urban area growth curves |
| title_full_unstemmed | Unveiling urban area growth dynamics: insights from a comprehensive study of urban area growth curves |
| title_short | Unveiling urban area growth dynamics: insights from a comprehensive study of urban area growth curves |
| title_sort | unveiling urban area growth dynamics insights from a comprehensive study of urban area growth curves |
| topic | Urban area growth S-shaped curve logistics model gompertz model maximum growth rate |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2024.2339361 |
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