Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model
This paper presents a model for the projection of Chinese vehicle stocks and road vehicle energy demand through 2050 based on low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios. To derive a gross-domestic product (GDP)-dependent Gompertz function, Chinese GDP is estimated using a recursive dynamic Computable...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2014-11-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/7/11/7454 |
| _version_ | 1828146101608251392 |
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| author | Tian Wu Mengbo Zhang Xunmin Ou |
| author_facet | Tian Wu Mengbo Zhang Xunmin Ou |
| author_sort | Tian Wu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper presents a model for the projection of Chinese vehicle stocks and road vehicle energy demand through 2050 based on low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios. To derive a gross-domestic product (GDP)-dependent Gompertz function, Chinese GDP is estimated using a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The Gompertz function is estimated using historical data on vehicle development trends in North America, Pacific Rim and Europe to overcome the problem of insufficient long-running data on Chinese vehicle ownership. Results indicate that the number of projected vehicle stocks for 2050 is 300, 455 and 463 million for low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios respectively. Furthermore, the growth in China’s vehicle stock will increase beyond the inflection point of Gompertz curve by 2020, but will not reach saturation point during the period 2014–2050. Of major road vehicle categories, cars are the largest energy consumers, followed by trucks and buses. Growth in Chinese vehicle demand is primarily determined by per capita GDP. Vehicle saturation levels solely influence the shape of the Gompertz curve and population growth weakly affects vehicle demand. Projected total energy consumption of road vehicles in 2050 is 380, 575 and 586 million tonnes of oil equivalent for each scenario. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T20:43:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f9225ad966b546178a5636cd5452deb3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T20:43:05Z |
| publishDate | 2014-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-f9225ad966b546178a5636cd5452deb32022-12-22T04:04:10ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732014-11-017117454748210.3390/en7117454en7117454Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium ModelTian Wu0Mengbo Zhang1Xunmin Ou2School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaHanqing Advanced Institute of Economics and Finance, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, ChinaInstitute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaThis paper presents a model for the projection of Chinese vehicle stocks and road vehicle energy demand through 2050 based on low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios. To derive a gross-domestic product (GDP)-dependent Gompertz function, Chinese GDP is estimated using a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The Gompertz function is estimated using historical data on vehicle development trends in North America, Pacific Rim and Europe to overcome the problem of insufficient long-running data on Chinese vehicle ownership. Results indicate that the number of projected vehicle stocks for 2050 is 300, 455 and 463 million for low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios respectively. Furthermore, the growth in China’s vehicle stock will increase beyond the inflection point of Gompertz curve by 2020, but will not reach saturation point during the period 2014–2050. Of major road vehicle categories, cars are the largest energy consumers, followed by trucks and buses. Growth in Chinese vehicle demand is primarily determined by per capita GDP. Vehicle saturation levels solely influence the shape of the Gompertz curve and population growth weakly affects vehicle demand. Projected total energy consumption of road vehicles in 2050 is 380, 575 and 586 million tonnes of oil equivalent for each scenario.http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/7/11/7454vehicle ownershipenergy consumptionGompertz functionComputable General Equilibrium (CGE) model |
| spellingShingle | Tian Wu Mengbo Zhang Xunmin Ou Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model Energies vehicle ownership energy consumption Gompertz function Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model |
| title | Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model |
| title_full | Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model |
| title_short | Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model |
| title_sort | analysis of future vehicle energy demand in china based on a gompertz function method and computable general equilibrium model |
| topic | vehicle ownership energy consumption Gompertz function Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model |
| url | http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/7/11/7454 |
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