Modelling Impact of Urban Expansion on Ecosystem Services: A Scenario-Based Approach in a Mixed Natural/Urbanised Landscape
The present study aims at predicting future land use/land cover (LULC) and quantifying and mapping the ecosystem services (ESs) of water yield, outdoor recreation opportunity and food production in current (here, 2017) and future landscapes in Northern Iran, using the InVEST, Recreation Opportunity...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Land |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/2/291 |
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| author | Fatemeh Mohammadyari Ardavan Zarandian Mir Mehrdad Mirsanjari Jurate Suziedelyte Visockiene Egle Tumeliene |
| author_facet | Fatemeh Mohammadyari Ardavan Zarandian Mir Mehrdad Mirsanjari Jurate Suziedelyte Visockiene Egle Tumeliene |
| author_sort | Fatemeh Mohammadyari |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The present study aims at predicting future land use/land cover (LULC) and quantifying and mapping the ecosystem services (ESs) of water yield, outdoor recreation opportunity and food production in current (here, 2017) and future landscapes in Northern Iran, using the InVEST, Recreation Opportunity Spectrum (ROS) and yield models. To that end, two LULC scenarios known as business as usual (BAU) and protection-based (PB) plan were applied for 2028, using the Markov Artificial Neural Network and Multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) models. The results show that rapid urbanisation, caused by the expansion of human settlements and industrial areas, has led to a decline in the ESs in the region. Compared to the ESs in 2017, the service of water yield increases as urban expansion increases, whereas food production and recreation services decrease as urban expansion increases, under the BAU scenario. On the other hand, in the PB scenario, relatively better conditions can be observed for all three ESs. Considering that the ecological structures of this region have been severely affected by rapid urban expansion, the results of this research will be useful for maintaining the existing ESs and can greatly affect planning and decision-making regarding future development towards urban sustainability. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T08:35:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f946f3c87f9e46b8b343b4b19901acf1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-445X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T08:35:12Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj.art-f946f3c87f9e46b8b343b4b19901acf12023-11-16T21:35:18ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2023-01-0112229110.3390/land12020291Modelling Impact of Urban Expansion on Ecosystem Services: A Scenario-Based Approach in a Mixed Natural/Urbanised LandscapeFatemeh Mohammadyari0Ardavan Zarandian1Mir Mehrdad Mirsanjari2Jurate Suziedelyte Visockiene3Egle Tumeliene4Department of Environmental Sciences, Malayer University, Malayer 65719-95863, IranResearch Center for Environment and Sustainable Development (RCESD), Department of Environment, Tehran 19395-4697, IranDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Malayer University, Malayer 65719-95863, IranDepartment of Geodesy and Cadaster, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Sauletekio av. 11, LT-10223 Vilnius, LithuaniaDepartment of Geodesy and Cadaster, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Sauletekio av. 11, LT-10223 Vilnius, LithuaniaThe present study aims at predicting future land use/land cover (LULC) and quantifying and mapping the ecosystem services (ESs) of water yield, outdoor recreation opportunity and food production in current (here, 2017) and future landscapes in Northern Iran, using the InVEST, Recreation Opportunity Spectrum (ROS) and yield models. To that end, two LULC scenarios known as business as usual (BAU) and protection-based (PB) plan were applied for 2028, using the Markov Artificial Neural Network and Multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) models. The results show that rapid urbanisation, caused by the expansion of human settlements and industrial areas, has led to a decline in the ESs in the region. Compared to the ESs in 2017, the service of water yield increases as urban expansion increases, whereas food production and recreation services decrease as urban expansion increases, under the BAU scenario. On the other hand, in the PB scenario, relatively better conditions can be observed for all three ESs. Considering that the ecological structures of this region have been severely affected by rapid urban expansion, the results of this research will be useful for maintaining the existing ESs and can greatly affect planning and decision-making regarding future development towards urban sustainability.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/2/291land use scenarioecosystem servicesMarkov Artificial Neural NetworkMOLA modelurban expansionKaraj landscape |
| spellingShingle | Fatemeh Mohammadyari Ardavan Zarandian Mir Mehrdad Mirsanjari Jurate Suziedelyte Visockiene Egle Tumeliene Modelling Impact of Urban Expansion on Ecosystem Services: A Scenario-Based Approach in a Mixed Natural/Urbanised Landscape Land land use scenario ecosystem services Markov Artificial Neural Network MOLA model urban expansion Karaj landscape |
| title | Modelling Impact of Urban Expansion on Ecosystem Services: A Scenario-Based Approach in a Mixed Natural/Urbanised Landscape |
| title_full | Modelling Impact of Urban Expansion on Ecosystem Services: A Scenario-Based Approach in a Mixed Natural/Urbanised Landscape |
| title_fullStr | Modelling Impact of Urban Expansion on Ecosystem Services: A Scenario-Based Approach in a Mixed Natural/Urbanised Landscape |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling Impact of Urban Expansion on Ecosystem Services: A Scenario-Based Approach in a Mixed Natural/Urbanised Landscape |
| title_short | Modelling Impact of Urban Expansion on Ecosystem Services: A Scenario-Based Approach in a Mixed Natural/Urbanised Landscape |
| title_sort | modelling impact of urban expansion on ecosystem services a scenario based approach in a mixed natural urbanised landscape |
| topic | land use scenario ecosystem services Markov Artificial Neural Network MOLA model urban expansion Karaj landscape |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/2/291 |
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