Assessment of Total Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Sector of Cyprus
In this paper, the results of a climate change impact and vulnerability assessment conducted for the agricultural sector of Cyprus are presented. The assessment is based on the outputs of specialized climatic and crop models, while it incorporates quantified socio-economic vulnerability indicators o...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-06-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/6/608 |
| _version_ | 1827715392039026688 |
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| author | Christina Papadaskalopoulou Marco Moriondo Ioannis Lemesios Anna Karali Angeliki Konsta Camilla Dibari Lorenzo Brilli Konstantinos V. Varotsos Andreas Stylianou Maria Loizidou Marinos Markou Christos Giannakopoulos |
| author_facet | Christina Papadaskalopoulou Marco Moriondo Ioannis Lemesios Anna Karali Angeliki Konsta Camilla Dibari Lorenzo Brilli Konstantinos V. Varotsos Andreas Stylianou Maria Loizidou Marinos Markou Christos Giannakopoulos |
| author_sort | Christina Papadaskalopoulou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this paper, the results of a climate change impact and vulnerability assessment conducted for the agricultural sector of Cyprus are presented. The assessment is based on the outputs of specialized climatic and crop models, while it incorporates quantified socio-economic vulnerability indicators of the Cypriot agriculture. The results are aggregated at municipal level in order to support regional and local adaptation planning. The assessment was performed for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), as well as for extreme climatic scenarios. Following, an economic assessment was made on the expected change in revenues of the agricultural sector. The results of climatic simulations indicated that future increases in temperature will be characterized by a strong seasonal trend, with the highest increases occurring in summer. Precipitation is expected to decrease throughout the island, where the highest decreases (50%) are expected during summer (RCP8.5). This trend will affect mainly tomato, grapevine, and olive tree, whose growing cycle takes place during summer. By contrast, crops covering autumn-winter season, such as potato, barley, and wheat, are expected to partially avoid harsh summer conditions. The results of the economic assessment show that the changes in total revenues are insignificant, because, under all scenarios, a loss in one crop is compensated by a gain in another crop. However, the farmers as well as the government should take action to increase the resilience of the agricultural sector, with a special focus on those crops and areas that are expected to be adversely affected by climate change impacts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:17:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f9c785cee4434c3fa6e67642dadf4255 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:17:31Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-f9c785cee4434c3fa6e67642dadf42552023-11-20T03:18:39ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332020-06-0111660810.3390/atmos11060608Assessment of Total Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Sector of CyprusChristina Papadaskalopoulou0Marco Moriondo1Ioannis Lemesios2Anna Karali3Angeliki Konsta4Camilla Dibari5Lorenzo Brilli6Konstantinos V. Varotsos7Andreas Stylianou8Maria Loizidou9Marinos Markou10Christos Giannakopoulos11School of Chemical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 9 Iroon Polytechniou Str., Zographou Campus, 15773 Athens, GreeceInstitute of BioEconomy, National Research Council (IBE-CNR), via Madonna del Piano, 10 Firenze, ItalyInstitute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Lofos Koufou, P. Pendeli, 15236 Athens, GreeceInstitute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Lofos Koufou, P. Pendeli, 15236 Athens, GreeceSchool of Chemical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 9 Iroon Polytechniou Str., Zographou Campus, 15773 Athens, GreeceDepartment of Agricultural Sciences and Technologies, University of Florenze, DAGRI, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, ItalyInstitute of BioEconomy, National Research Council (IBE-CNR), via Madonna del Piano, 10 Firenze, ItalyInstitute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Lofos Koufou, P. Pendeli, 15236 Athens, GreeceAgricultural Research Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment, Athalassa Forest, Nicosia 1516, CyprusSchool of Chemical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 9 Iroon Polytechniou Str., Zographou Campus, 15773 Athens, GreeceAgricultural Research Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment, Athalassa Forest, Nicosia 1516, CyprusInstitute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Lofos Koufou, P. Pendeli, 15236 Athens, GreeceIn this paper, the results of a climate change impact and vulnerability assessment conducted for the agricultural sector of Cyprus are presented. The assessment is based on the outputs of specialized climatic and crop models, while it incorporates quantified socio-economic vulnerability indicators of the Cypriot agriculture. The results are aggregated at municipal level in order to support regional and local adaptation planning. The assessment was performed for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), as well as for extreme climatic scenarios. Following, an economic assessment was made on the expected change in revenues of the agricultural sector. The results of climatic simulations indicated that future increases in temperature will be characterized by a strong seasonal trend, with the highest increases occurring in summer. Precipitation is expected to decrease throughout the island, where the highest decreases (50%) are expected during summer (RCP8.5). This trend will affect mainly tomato, grapevine, and olive tree, whose growing cycle takes place during summer. By contrast, crops covering autumn-winter season, such as potato, barley, and wheat, are expected to partially avoid harsh summer conditions. The results of the economic assessment show that the changes in total revenues are insignificant, because, under all scenarios, a loss in one crop is compensated by a gain in another crop. However, the farmers as well as the government should take action to increase the resilience of the agricultural sector, with a special focus on those crops and areas that are expected to be adversely affected by climate change impacts.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/6/608climate changeimpactsagriculturecrop yieldvulnerabilitysocio-economic |
| spellingShingle | Christina Papadaskalopoulou Marco Moriondo Ioannis Lemesios Anna Karali Angeliki Konsta Camilla Dibari Lorenzo Brilli Konstantinos V. Varotsos Andreas Stylianou Maria Loizidou Marinos Markou Christos Giannakopoulos Assessment of Total Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Sector of Cyprus Atmosphere climate change impacts agriculture crop yield vulnerability socio-economic |
| title | Assessment of Total Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Sector of Cyprus |
| title_full | Assessment of Total Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Sector of Cyprus |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of Total Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Sector of Cyprus |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of Total Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Sector of Cyprus |
| title_short | Assessment of Total Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Sector of Cyprus |
| title_sort | assessment of total climate change impacts on the agricultural sector of cyprus |
| topic | climate change impacts agriculture crop yield vulnerability socio-economic |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/6/608 |
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