Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, China
Abstract Background Mumps is an acute respiratory infectious disease with obvious regional and seasonal differences. Exploring the impact of climate factors on the incidence of mumps and predicting its incidence trend on this basis could effectively control the outbreak and epidemic of mumps. Method...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2020-07-01
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| Series: | BMC Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12879-020-05180-7 |
| _version_ | 1819173839314092032 |
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| author | Wen-ting Zha Wei-tong LI Nan Zhou Jia-jia Zhu Ruihua Feng Tong Li Yan-bing Du Ying Liu Xiu-qin Hong Yuan Lv |
| author_facet | Wen-ting Zha Wei-tong LI Nan Zhou Jia-jia Zhu Ruihua Feng Tong Li Yan-bing Du Ying Liu Xiu-qin Hong Yuan Lv |
| author_sort | Wen-ting Zha |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Mumps is an acute respiratory infectious disease with obvious regional and seasonal differences. Exploring the impact of climate factors on the incidence of mumps and predicting its incidence trend on this basis could effectively control the outbreak and epidemic of mumps. Methods Considering the great differences of climate in the vast territory of China, this study divided the Chinese mainland into seven regions according to the administrative planning criteria, data of Mumps were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, ARIMA model and ARIMAX model with meteorological factors were established to predict the incidence of mumps. Results In this study, we found that precipitation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed had an impact on the incidence of mumps in most regions of China and the incidence of mumps in the north and southwest China was more susceptible to climate factors. Considering meteorological factors, the average relative error of ARIMAX model was 10.87%, which was lower than ARIMA model (15.57%). Conclusions Meteorology factors were the important factors which can affect the incidence of mumps, ARIMAX model with meteorological factors could better simulate and predict the incidence of mumps in China, which has certain reference value for the prevention and control of mumps. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T20:29:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f9d8bd5339564bb4bef9baa65ff3f577 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2334 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T20:29:27Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-f9d8bd5339564bb4bef9baa65ff3f5772022-12-21T18:13:39ZengBMCBMC Infectious Diseases1471-23342020-07-0120111110.1186/s12879-020-05180-7Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, ChinaWen-ting Zha0Wei-tong LI1Nan Zhou2Jia-jia Zhu3Ruihua Feng4Tong Li5Yan-bing Du6Ying Liu7Xiu-qin Hong8Yuan Lv9Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal UniversityAbstract Background Mumps is an acute respiratory infectious disease with obvious regional and seasonal differences. Exploring the impact of climate factors on the incidence of mumps and predicting its incidence trend on this basis could effectively control the outbreak and epidemic of mumps. Methods Considering the great differences of climate in the vast territory of China, this study divided the Chinese mainland into seven regions according to the administrative planning criteria, data of Mumps were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, ARIMA model and ARIMAX model with meteorological factors were established to predict the incidence of mumps. Results In this study, we found that precipitation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed had an impact on the incidence of mumps in most regions of China and the incidence of mumps in the north and southwest China was more susceptible to climate factors. Considering meteorological factors, the average relative error of ARIMAX model was 10.87%, which was lower than ARIMA model (15.57%). Conclusions Meteorology factors were the important factors which can affect the incidence of mumps, ARIMAX model with meteorological factors could better simulate and predict the incidence of mumps in China, which has certain reference value for the prevention and control of mumps.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12879-020-05180-7MumpsMeteorological factorsARIMAARIMAXPrediction effect |
| spellingShingle | Wen-ting Zha Wei-tong LI Nan Zhou Jia-jia Zhu Ruihua Feng Tong Li Yan-bing Du Ying Liu Xiu-qin Hong Yuan Lv Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, China BMC Infectious Diseases Mumps Meteorological factors ARIMA ARIMAX Prediction effect |
| title | Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, China |
| title_full | Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, China |
| title_fullStr | Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, China |
| title_short | Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, China |
| title_sort | effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction china |
| topic | Mumps Meteorological factors ARIMA ARIMAX Prediction effect |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12879-020-05180-7 |
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