Impact of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity: A Numerical Investigation
Despite numerous studies, the impact of global warming on the tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity by reasons of data inhomogeneity in remote sensing and large natural variability over a relatively short period of observation is still controversial. Three carbon-emission sensitivity experiments...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Remote Sensing |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/11/2763 |
| _version_ | 1797596891335098368 |
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| author | Zhihao Feng Jian Shi Yuan Sun Wei Zhong Yixuan Shen Shuo Lv Yao Yao Liang Zhao |
| author_facet | Zhihao Feng Jian Shi Yuan Sun Wei Zhong Yixuan Shen Shuo Lv Yao Yao Liang Zhao |
| author_sort | Zhihao Feng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Despite numerous studies, the impact of global warming on the tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity by reasons of data inhomogeneity in remote sensing and large natural variability over a relatively short period of observation is still controversial. Three carbon-emission sensitivity experiments are conducted to investigate how TC track and intensity respond to changes in the oceanic and atmospheric environment under global warming. The results show a high sensitivity of the simulated TC track and intensity to global warming. On one hand, with increase in carbon emissions, the western Pacific subtropical high expands notably, increasing the poleward steering flow and eventually leading to a poleward shift of TC. On the other hand, the underlying sea-surface temperature and surface-entropy flux increase and, thus, favor the convections near the eyewall. Moreover, the TC structure becomes more upright, which is closely related to the larger pressure gradient near the eyewall. As a result, TC intensity increases with carbon emissions. However, this increase is notably smaller than the maximum potential intensity theory as the TC intensity can reach a threshold if carbon emission still increases in the future. The involved mechanisms on the changes of TC track and intensity are also revealed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T02:59:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fa04cb071aca416d8dedecf1acae8618 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T02:59:09Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj.art-fa04cb071aca416d8dedecf1acae86182023-11-18T08:28:21ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922023-05-011511276310.3390/rs15112763Impact of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity: A Numerical InvestigationZhihao Feng0Jian Shi1Yuan Sun2Wei Zhong3Yixuan Shen4Shuo Lv5Yao Yao6Liang Zhao7College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, ChinaCollege of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, ChinaCollege of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 211100, ChinaCollege of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 211100, ChinaPLA Troop 32033, Haikou 570100, ChinaPLA Troop 31204, Guangzhou 510000, ChinaCollege of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 211100, ChinaCollege of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 211100, ChinaDespite numerous studies, the impact of global warming on the tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity by reasons of data inhomogeneity in remote sensing and large natural variability over a relatively short period of observation is still controversial. Three carbon-emission sensitivity experiments are conducted to investigate how TC track and intensity respond to changes in the oceanic and atmospheric environment under global warming. The results show a high sensitivity of the simulated TC track and intensity to global warming. On one hand, with increase in carbon emissions, the western Pacific subtropical high expands notably, increasing the poleward steering flow and eventually leading to a poleward shift of TC. On the other hand, the underlying sea-surface temperature and surface-entropy flux increase and, thus, favor the convections near the eyewall. Moreover, the TC structure becomes more upright, which is closely related to the larger pressure gradient near the eyewall. As a result, TC intensity increases with carbon emissions. However, this increase is notably smaller than the maximum potential intensity theory as the TC intensity can reach a threshold if carbon emission still increases in the future. The involved mechanisms on the changes of TC track and intensity are also revealed.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/11/2763tropical cycloneglobal warmingcarbon emissionssea-surface temperatureCOAWST models |
| spellingShingle | Zhihao Feng Jian Shi Yuan Sun Wei Zhong Yixuan Shen Shuo Lv Yao Yao Liang Zhao Impact of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity: A Numerical Investigation Remote Sensing tropical cyclone global warming carbon emissions sea-surface temperature COAWST models |
| title | Impact of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity: A Numerical Investigation |
| title_full | Impact of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity: A Numerical Investigation |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity: A Numerical Investigation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity: A Numerical Investigation |
| title_short | Impact of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity: A Numerical Investigation |
| title_sort | impact of global warming on tropical cyclone track and intensity a numerical investigation |
| topic | tropical cyclone global warming carbon emissions sea-surface temperature COAWST models |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/11/2763 |
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