Vulnerability of cocoa-based agroforestry systems to climate change in West Africa
Abstract Previous research indicates that some important cocoa cultivated areas in West Africa will become unsuitable for growing cocoa in the next decades. However, it is not clear if this change will be mirrored by the shade tree species that could be used in cocoa-based agroforestry systems (C-AF...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-06-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-37180-3 |
| _version_ | 1797795819707957248 |
|---|---|
| author | Antonio Jesús Ariza-Salamanca Rafael M. Navarro-Cerrillo José L. Quero-Pérez Belinda Gallardo-Armas Jayne Crozier Clare Stirling Kauê de Sousa Pablo González-Moreno |
| author_facet | Antonio Jesús Ariza-Salamanca Rafael M. Navarro-Cerrillo José L. Quero-Pérez Belinda Gallardo-Armas Jayne Crozier Clare Stirling Kauê de Sousa Pablo González-Moreno |
| author_sort | Antonio Jesús Ariza-Salamanca |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Previous research indicates that some important cocoa cultivated areas in West Africa will become unsuitable for growing cocoa in the next decades. However, it is not clear if this change will be mirrored by the shade tree species that could be used in cocoa-based agroforestry systems (C-AFS). We characterized current and future patterns of habitat suitability for 38 tree species (including cocoa), using a consensus method for species distribution modelling considering for the first time climatic and soil variables. The models projected an increase of up to 6% of the potential suitable area for cocoa by 2060 compared to its current suitable area in West Africa. Furthermore, the suitable area was highly reduced (14.5%) once considering only available land-use not contributing to deforestation. Regarding shade trees, 50% of the 37 shade tree species modelled will experience a decrease in geographic rate extent by 2040 in West Africa, and 60% by 2060. Hotspots of shade tree species richness overlap the current core cocoa production areas in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, suggesting a potential mismatch for the outer areas in West Africa. Our results highlight the importance of transforming cocoa-based agroforestry systems by changing shade tree species composition to adapt this production systems for future climate conditions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T03:23:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fa134758bf24409cbc788a45f000ac23 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T03:23:47Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-fa134758bf24409cbc788a45f000ac232023-06-25T11:13:27ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-06-0113111210.1038/s41598-023-37180-3Vulnerability of cocoa-based agroforestry systems to climate change in West AfricaAntonio Jesús Ariza-Salamanca0Rafael M. Navarro-Cerrillo1José L. Quero-Pérez2Belinda Gallardo-Armas3Jayne Crozier4Clare Stirling5Kauê de Sousa6Pablo González-Moreno7Department of Forest Engineering, Laboratory of Dendrochronology, Silviculture and Global Change, DendrodatLab-ERSAF, University of CordobaDepartment of Forest Engineering, Laboratory of Dendrochronology, Silviculture and Global Change, DendrodatLab-ERSAF, University of CordobaDepartment of Forest Engineering, Laboratory of Dendrochronology, Silviculture and Global Change, DendrodatLab-ERSAF, University of CordobaInstituto Pirenaico de Ecología - CSIC ESCABIMondelez UK R&D LimitedDepartment of Agricultural Sciences, Inland Norway University of Applied SciencesDepartment of Forest Engineering, Laboratory of Dendrochronology, Silviculture and Global Change, DendrodatLab-ERSAF, University of CordobaAbstract Previous research indicates that some important cocoa cultivated areas in West Africa will become unsuitable for growing cocoa in the next decades. However, it is not clear if this change will be mirrored by the shade tree species that could be used in cocoa-based agroforestry systems (C-AFS). We characterized current and future patterns of habitat suitability for 38 tree species (including cocoa), using a consensus method for species distribution modelling considering for the first time climatic and soil variables. The models projected an increase of up to 6% of the potential suitable area for cocoa by 2060 compared to its current suitable area in West Africa. Furthermore, the suitable area was highly reduced (14.5%) once considering only available land-use not contributing to deforestation. Regarding shade trees, 50% of the 37 shade tree species modelled will experience a decrease in geographic rate extent by 2040 in West Africa, and 60% by 2060. Hotspots of shade tree species richness overlap the current core cocoa production areas in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, suggesting a potential mismatch for the outer areas in West Africa. Our results highlight the importance of transforming cocoa-based agroforestry systems by changing shade tree species composition to adapt this production systems for future climate conditions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-37180-3 |
| spellingShingle | Antonio Jesús Ariza-Salamanca Rafael M. Navarro-Cerrillo José L. Quero-Pérez Belinda Gallardo-Armas Jayne Crozier Clare Stirling Kauê de Sousa Pablo González-Moreno Vulnerability of cocoa-based agroforestry systems to climate change in West Africa Scientific Reports |
| title | Vulnerability of cocoa-based agroforestry systems to climate change in West Africa |
| title_full | Vulnerability of cocoa-based agroforestry systems to climate change in West Africa |
| title_fullStr | Vulnerability of cocoa-based agroforestry systems to climate change in West Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Vulnerability of cocoa-based agroforestry systems to climate change in West Africa |
| title_short | Vulnerability of cocoa-based agroforestry systems to climate change in West Africa |
| title_sort | vulnerability of cocoa based agroforestry systems to climate change in west africa |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-37180-3 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT antoniojesusarizasalamanca vulnerabilityofcocoabasedagroforestrysystemstoclimatechangeinwestafrica AT rafaelmnavarrocerrillo vulnerabilityofcocoabasedagroforestrysystemstoclimatechangeinwestafrica AT joselqueroperez vulnerabilityofcocoabasedagroforestrysystemstoclimatechangeinwestafrica AT belindagallardoarmas vulnerabilityofcocoabasedagroforestrysystemstoclimatechangeinwestafrica AT jaynecrozier vulnerabilityofcocoabasedagroforestrysystemstoclimatechangeinwestafrica AT clarestirling vulnerabilityofcocoabasedagroforestrysystemstoclimatechangeinwestafrica AT kauedesousa vulnerabilityofcocoabasedagroforestrysystemstoclimatechangeinwestafrica AT pablogonzalezmoreno vulnerabilityofcocoabasedagroforestrysystemstoclimatechangeinwestafrica |