Predictive Statistical Cost Estimation Model for Existing Single Family Home Elevation Projects

One of the most preferred flood mitigation techniques for existing homes is raising the elevation of the lowest floor above the base flood elevation (BFE). Determination of project effectiveness through benefit-cost analysis (BCA) relies on the expected avoided flood loss and the project cost. Conve...

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Main Authors: Arash Taghinezhad, Carol J. Friedland, Robert V. Rohli, Brian D. Marx, Jeffrey Giering, Isabelina Nahmens
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2021-06-01
Series:Frontiers in Built Environment
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fbuil.2021.646668/full
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author Arash Taghinezhad
Carol J. Friedland
Robert V. Rohli
Brian D. Marx
Jeffrey Giering
Isabelina Nahmens
author_facet Arash Taghinezhad
Carol J. Friedland
Robert V. Rohli
Brian D. Marx
Jeffrey Giering
Isabelina Nahmens
author_sort Arash Taghinezhad
collection DOAJ
description One of the most preferred flood mitigation techniques for existing homes is raising the elevation of the lowest floor above the base flood elevation (BFE). Determination of project effectiveness through benefit-cost analysis (BCA) relies on the expected avoided flood loss and the project cost. Conventional construction cost estimates are highly detailed, considering specific details of the project; however, mitigation project decisions must often be made while considering only highly generalized building details. To provide a robust, generalized project cost estimation method, this paper implements data modeling and mining methods such as multiple regression, random forest, generalized additive model (GAM), and model evaluation and selection with cross-validation methods to hindcast elevation costs for existing single-family homes based on average floor area, increase in floor elevation, number of stories, and foundation type. Project cost data for homes elevated in Louisiana, United States, between 2005 and 2015 are used in cost prediction analysis. The statistical modeling results are compared with detailed estimations for several types of home foundations over a range of elevations. The results show substantial agreement between regression predictions and detailed estimates using RSMeans cost data.
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spelling doaj.art-fa1b82c45645468d800a2f6f98911caf2022-12-21T21:59:49ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Built Environment2297-33622021-06-01710.3389/fbuil.2021.646668646668Predictive Statistical Cost Estimation Model for Existing Single Family Home Elevation ProjectsArash Taghinezhad0Carol J. Friedland1Robert V. Rohli2Brian D. Marx3Jeffrey Giering4Isabelina Nahmens5Bert S. Turner Department of Construction Management, College of Engineering, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United statesBert S. Turner Department of Construction Management, College of Engineering, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United statesDepartment of Oceanography & Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United StatesDepartment of Experimental Statistics, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United StatesLouisiana Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, Baton Rouge, LA, United StatesDepartment of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United StatesOne of the most preferred flood mitigation techniques for existing homes is raising the elevation of the lowest floor above the base flood elevation (BFE). Determination of project effectiveness through benefit-cost analysis (BCA) relies on the expected avoided flood loss and the project cost. Conventional construction cost estimates are highly detailed, considering specific details of the project; however, mitigation project decisions must often be made while considering only highly generalized building details. To provide a robust, generalized project cost estimation method, this paper implements data modeling and mining methods such as multiple regression, random forest, generalized additive model (GAM), and model evaluation and selection with cross-validation methods to hindcast elevation costs for existing single-family homes based on average floor area, increase in floor elevation, number of stories, and foundation type. Project cost data for homes elevated in Louisiana, United States, between 2005 and 2015 are used in cost prediction analysis. The statistical modeling results are compared with detailed estimations for several types of home foundations over a range of elevations. The results show substantial agreement between regression predictions and detailed estimates using RSMeans cost data.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fbuil.2021.646668/fullflood mitigationFreeboardcost estimationregressionrandom forestGAM
spellingShingle Arash Taghinezhad
Carol J. Friedland
Robert V. Rohli
Brian D. Marx
Jeffrey Giering
Isabelina Nahmens
Predictive Statistical Cost Estimation Model for Existing Single Family Home Elevation Projects
Frontiers in Built Environment
flood mitigation
Freeboard
cost estimation
regression
random forest
GAM
title Predictive Statistical Cost Estimation Model for Existing Single Family Home Elevation Projects
title_full Predictive Statistical Cost Estimation Model for Existing Single Family Home Elevation Projects
title_fullStr Predictive Statistical Cost Estimation Model for Existing Single Family Home Elevation Projects
title_full_unstemmed Predictive Statistical Cost Estimation Model for Existing Single Family Home Elevation Projects
title_short Predictive Statistical Cost Estimation Model for Existing Single Family Home Elevation Projects
title_sort predictive statistical cost estimation model for existing single family home elevation projects
topic flood mitigation
Freeboard
cost estimation
regression
random forest
GAM
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fbuil.2021.646668/full
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AT briandmarx predictivestatisticalcostestimationmodelforexistingsinglefamilyhomeelevationprojects
AT jeffreygiering predictivestatisticalcostestimationmodelforexistingsinglefamilyhomeelevationprojects
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