A Rule-Based Predictive Model for Estimating Human Impact Data in Natural Onset Disasters—The Case of a PRED Model
<i>Background:</i> This paper proposes a framework to cope with the lack of data at the time of a disaster by employing predictive models. The framework can be used for disaster human impact assessment based on the socio-economic characteristics of the affected countries. <i>Method...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Logistics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2305-6290/7/2/31 |
| _version_ | 1797593828473962496 |
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| author | Sara Rye Emel Aktas |
| author_facet | Sara Rye Emel Aktas |
| author_sort | Sara Rye |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <i>Background:</i> This paper proposes a framework to cope with the lack of data at the time of a disaster by employing predictive models. The framework can be used for disaster human impact assessment based on the socio-economic characteristics of the affected countries. <i>Methods</i>: A panel data of 4252 natural onset disasters between 1980 to 2020 is processed through concept drift phenomenon and rule-based classifiers, namely the Moving Average (MA). <i>Results:</i> Predictive model for Estimating Data (PRED) is developed as a decision-making platform based on the Disaster Severity Analysis (DSA) Technique. <i>Conclusions:</i> comparison with the real data shows that the platform can predict the human impact of a disaster (fatality, injured, homeless) with up to 3% error; thus, it is able to inform the selection of disaster relief partners for various disaster scenarios. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T02:15:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fa8c70a7a49948079eb55d9be50a51f2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2305-6290 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T02:15:01Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Logistics |
| spelling | doaj.art-fa8c70a7a49948079eb55d9be50a51f22023-11-18T11:19:31ZengMDPI AGLogistics2305-62902023-05-01723110.3390/logistics7020031A Rule-Based Predictive Model for Estimating Human Impact Data in Natural Onset Disasters—The Case of a PRED ModelSara Rye0Emel Aktas1School of Social Sciences, Faculty of Management, Law and Social Sciences, University of Bradford, Richmond Rd., Bradford BD7 1DP, UKCranfield School of Management, Cranfield University, College Road, Cranfield MK43 0AL, UK<i>Background:</i> This paper proposes a framework to cope with the lack of data at the time of a disaster by employing predictive models. The framework can be used for disaster human impact assessment based on the socio-economic characteristics of the affected countries. <i>Methods</i>: A panel data of 4252 natural onset disasters between 1980 to 2020 is processed through concept drift phenomenon and rule-based classifiers, namely the Moving Average (MA). <i>Results:</i> Predictive model for Estimating Data (PRED) is developed as a decision-making platform based on the Disaster Severity Analysis (DSA) Technique. <i>Conclusions:</i> comparison with the real data shows that the platform can predict the human impact of a disaster (fatality, injured, homeless) with up to 3% error; thus, it is able to inform the selection of disaster relief partners for various disaster scenarios.https://www.mdpi.com/2305-6290/7/2/31decision methodsdisaster response networkdisaster impact predictiondisaster severityhumanitarian aid network |
| spellingShingle | Sara Rye Emel Aktas A Rule-Based Predictive Model for Estimating Human Impact Data in Natural Onset Disasters—The Case of a PRED Model Logistics decision methods disaster response network disaster impact prediction disaster severity humanitarian aid network |
| title | A Rule-Based Predictive Model for Estimating Human Impact Data in Natural Onset Disasters—The Case of a PRED Model |
| title_full | A Rule-Based Predictive Model for Estimating Human Impact Data in Natural Onset Disasters—The Case of a PRED Model |
| title_fullStr | A Rule-Based Predictive Model for Estimating Human Impact Data in Natural Onset Disasters—The Case of a PRED Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Rule-Based Predictive Model for Estimating Human Impact Data in Natural Onset Disasters—The Case of a PRED Model |
| title_short | A Rule-Based Predictive Model for Estimating Human Impact Data in Natural Onset Disasters—The Case of a PRED Model |
| title_sort | rule based predictive model for estimating human impact data in natural onset disasters the case of a pred model |
| topic | decision methods disaster response network disaster impact prediction disaster severity humanitarian aid network |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2305-6290/7/2/31 |
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