Modeling the Market-Driven Composition of the Passenger Vehicle Market during the Transition to Electric Vehicles

The automotive market is currently shifting away from traditional vehicles reliant on internal combustion engines, favoring battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The widespread acceptance of these vehicles, especially without...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Vikram Mittal, Rajesh Shah
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2023-12-01
Series:Modelling
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2673-3951/5/1/7
_version_ 1797239969592377344
author Vikram Mittal
Rajesh Shah
author_facet Vikram Mittal
Rajesh Shah
author_sort Vikram Mittal
collection DOAJ
description The automotive market is currently shifting away from traditional vehicles reliant on internal combustion engines, favoring battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The widespread acceptance of these vehicles, especially without government subsidies, hinges on market dynamics, particularly customers opting for vehicles with the lowest overall cost of ownership. This paper aims to model the total cost of ownership for various powertrains, encompassing conventional vehicles, HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs, focusing on both sedans and sports utility vehicles. The modeling uses vehicle dynamics to approximate the fuel and electricity consumption rates for each powertrain. Following this, the analysis estimates the purchase cost and the lifetime operational cost for each vehicle type, factoring in average daily mileage. As drivers consider vehicle replacements, their choice tends to lean towards the most economical option, especially when performance metrics (e.g., range, acceleration, and payload) are comparable across the choices. The analysis seeks to determine the percentage of drivers likely to choose each vehicle type based on their specific driving habits. Advances in battery technology will reduce the battery weight and cost; further, the cost of electricity will decrease as more renewable energy sources will be integrated into the grid. In turn, the total cost of ownership will decrease for the electrified vehicles. By following battery trends, this study is able to model the makeup of the automotive market over time as it transitions from fossil-fuel based vehicles to fully electric vehicles. The model finds until the cost of batteries and electricity is significantly reduced, the composition of the vehicle market is a mixture of all vehicle types.
first_indexed 2024-04-24T17:59:59Z
format Article
id doaj.art-fa8f6a2725c640caac02cfec9feb5707
institution Directory Open Access Journal
issn 2673-3951
language English
last_indexed 2024-04-24T17:59:59Z
publishDate 2023-12-01
publisher MDPI AG
record_format Article
series Modelling
spelling doaj.art-fa8f6a2725c640caac02cfec9feb57072024-03-27T13:56:30ZengMDPI AGModelling2673-39512023-12-01519911610.3390/modelling5010007Modeling the Market-Driven Composition of the Passenger Vehicle Market during the Transition to Electric VehiclesVikram Mittal0Rajesh Shah1Department of Systems Engineering, United States Military Academy, West Point, NY 10996, USAKoehler Instrument Company, Bohemia, NY 11716, USAThe automotive market is currently shifting away from traditional vehicles reliant on internal combustion engines, favoring battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The widespread acceptance of these vehicles, especially without government subsidies, hinges on market dynamics, particularly customers opting for vehicles with the lowest overall cost of ownership. This paper aims to model the total cost of ownership for various powertrains, encompassing conventional vehicles, HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs, focusing on both sedans and sports utility vehicles. The modeling uses vehicle dynamics to approximate the fuel and electricity consumption rates for each powertrain. Following this, the analysis estimates the purchase cost and the lifetime operational cost for each vehicle type, factoring in average daily mileage. As drivers consider vehicle replacements, their choice tends to lean towards the most economical option, especially when performance metrics (e.g., range, acceleration, and payload) are comparable across the choices. The analysis seeks to determine the percentage of drivers likely to choose each vehicle type based on their specific driving habits. Advances in battery technology will reduce the battery weight and cost; further, the cost of electricity will decrease as more renewable energy sources will be integrated into the grid. In turn, the total cost of ownership will decrease for the electrified vehicles. By following battery trends, this study is able to model the makeup of the automotive market over time as it transitions from fossil-fuel based vehicles to fully electric vehicles. The model finds until the cost of batteries and electricity is significantly reduced, the composition of the vehicle market is a mixture of all vehicle types.https://www.mdpi.com/2673-3951/5/1/7technology forecastingbatteriessustainabilityelectric vehicleslife-cycle cost analysisdrive-cycle models
spellingShingle Vikram Mittal
Rajesh Shah
Modeling the Market-Driven Composition of the Passenger Vehicle Market during the Transition to Electric Vehicles
Modelling
technology forecasting
batteries
sustainability
electric vehicles
life-cycle cost analysis
drive-cycle models
title Modeling the Market-Driven Composition of the Passenger Vehicle Market during the Transition to Electric Vehicles
title_full Modeling the Market-Driven Composition of the Passenger Vehicle Market during the Transition to Electric Vehicles
title_fullStr Modeling the Market-Driven Composition of the Passenger Vehicle Market during the Transition to Electric Vehicles
title_full_unstemmed Modeling the Market-Driven Composition of the Passenger Vehicle Market during the Transition to Electric Vehicles
title_short Modeling the Market-Driven Composition of the Passenger Vehicle Market during the Transition to Electric Vehicles
title_sort modeling the market driven composition of the passenger vehicle market during the transition to electric vehicles
topic technology forecasting
batteries
sustainability
electric vehicles
life-cycle cost analysis
drive-cycle models
url https://www.mdpi.com/2673-3951/5/1/7
work_keys_str_mv AT vikrammittal modelingthemarketdrivencompositionofthepassengervehiclemarketduringthetransitiontoelectricvehicles
AT rajeshshah modelingthemarketdrivencompositionofthepassengervehiclemarketduringthetransitiontoelectricvehicles