Generalizing the Results of Foresight Studies on the Development of Markets for Liquid Hydrocarbons across the World and Forming Consensus Forecast
The article is dedicated to the systematization of forecast trends in the development of liquid hydrocarbons across the world, as well as the formation of a consensus forecast for this area of energy use. There analyzed foresight studies carried out for individual organizations as well as the demand...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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PH "INZHEK"
2018-06-01
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| Series: | Problemi Ekonomiki |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.problecon.com/export_pdf/problems-of-economy-2018-2_0-pages-31_37.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797333458140266496 |
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| author | Rudyka Viktor I. Lelyuk Oleksіy V. |
| author_facet | Rudyka Viktor I. Lelyuk Oleksіy V. |
| author_sort | Rudyka Viktor I. |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The article is dedicated to the systematization of forecast trends in the development of liquid hydrocarbons across the world, as well as the formation of a consensus forecast for this area of energy use. There analyzed foresight studies carried out for individual organizations as well as the demand for liquid hydrocarbons, its consensus forecast being formed. The regional and sectoral structures of the world consumption of liquid hydrocarbons are determined, and their consensus forecasts are formed. The current trends in the consumption of liquid hydrocarbons and the extraction of crude oil are considered. The forecast trends in the expansion of the raw-material basket for the production of liquid hydrocarbons are analyzed. It is shown that the world oil production will remain the dominant source of supply of liquid hydrocarbons. The forecast of oil production in the world is formed. There carried out a comparative analysis of the data of different energy foresight studies on the world oil production. Using the consolidated forecast, its regional structure and consensus forecast are formed. Since forecasting oil prices is an integral part of making prognosis both of the market of liquid hydrocarbons and the entire energy landscape of the future, the forecasts of oil prices in the studies carried out for individual organizations are considered, and their consensus forecast is formed. Based on the study, the main trend in the sphere of liquid hydrocarbons and key trends in the long-term development of this sphere of energy use are highlighted. It is proved that the world oil market in the long term becomes even more concentrated, while the market for liquid hydrocarbons is undergoing significant diversification associated with the expansion of production and consumption of non-oil fuels. The low oil prices in the global market are revealed to be an obstacle to substitution of oil raw materials, as well as for the development of non-conventional oil resources. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T08:04:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-faa5503405974637a4315c3ce84431c1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2222-0712 2311-1186 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T08:04:10Z |
| publishDate | 2018-06-01 |
| publisher | PH "INZHEK" |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Problemi Ekonomiki |
| spelling | doaj.art-faa5503405974637a4315c3ce84431c12024-02-02T11:42:41ZengPH "INZHEK"Problemi Ekonomiki2222-07122311-11862018-06-012363137Generalizing the Results of Foresight Studies on the Development of Markets for Liquid Hydrocarbons across the World and Forming Consensus ForecastRudyka Viktor I.0Lelyuk Oleksіy V. 1Director, State Institute for designing enterprises of coke oven and by-product industry “GIPROKOKS”Research Centre of Industrial Problems of Development of NAS of UkraineThe article is dedicated to the systematization of forecast trends in the development of liquid hydrocarbons across the world, as well as the formation of a consensus forecast for this area of energy use. There analyzed foresight studies carried out for individual organizations as well as the demand for liquid hydrocarbons, its consensus forecast being formed. The regional and sectoral structures of the world consumption of liquid hydrocarbons are determined, and their consensus forecasts are formed. The current trends in the consumption of liquid hydrocarbons and the extraction of crude oil are considered. The forecast trends in the expansion of the raw-material basket for the production of liquid hydrocarbons are analyzed. It is shown that the world oil production will remain the dominant source of supply of liquid hydrocarbons. The forecast of oil production in the world is formed. There carried out a comparative analysis of the data of different energy foresight studies on the world oil production. Using the consolidated forecast, its regional structure and consensus forecast are formed. Since forecasting oil prices is an integral part of making prognosis both of the market of liquid hydrocarbons and the entire energy landscape of the future, the forecasts of oil prices in the studies carried out for individual organizations are considered, and their consensus forecast is formed. Based on the study, the main trend in the sphere of liquid hydrocarbons and key trends in the long-term development of this sphere of energy use are highlighted. It is proved that the world oil market in the long term becomes even more concentrated, while the market for liquid hydrocarbons is undergoing significant diversification associated with the expansion of production and consumption of non-oil fuels. The low oil prices in the global market are revealed to be an obstacle to substitution of oil raw materials, as well as for the development of non-conventional oil resources.http://www.problecon.com/export_pdf/problems-of-economy-2018-2_0-pages-31_37.pdfforesightconsensus forecastliquid hydrocarbonsoiloil productionoil consumptionelectric power sectorenergy resourcesraw materials basketstructuretrends |
| spellingShingle | Rudyka Viktor I. Lelyuk Oleksіy V. Generalizing the Results of Foresight Studies on the Development of Markets for Liquid Hydrocarbons across the World and Forming Consensus Forecast Problemi Ekonomiki foresight consensus forecast liquid hydrocarbons oil oil production oil consumption electric power sector energy resources raw materials basket structure trends |
| title | Generalizing the Results of Foresight Studies on the Development of Markets for Liquid Hydrocarbons across the World and Forming Consensus Forecast |
| title_full | Generalizing the Results of Foresight Studies on the Development of Markets for Liquid Hydrocarbons across the World and Forming Consensus Forecast |
| title_fullStr | Generalizing the Results of Foresight Studies on the Development of Markets for Liquid Hydrocarbons across the World and Forming Consensus Forecast |
| title_full_unstemmed | Generalizing the Results of Foresight Studies on the Development of Markets for Liquid Hydrocarbons across the World and Forming Consensus Forecast |
| title_short | Generalizing the Results of Foresight Studies on the Development of Markets for Liquid Hydrocarbons across the World and Forming Consensus Forecast |
| title_sort | generalizing the results of foresight studies on the development of markets for liquid hydrocarbons across the world and forming consensus forecast |
| topic | foresight consensus forecast liquid hydrocarbons oil oil production oil consumption electric power sector energy resources raw materials basket structure trends |
| url | http://www.problecon.com/export_pdf/problems-of-economy-2018-2_0-pages-31_37.pdf |
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