Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems

Abstract The Glasgow Climate Pact articulated the vital importance of renewables in reducing emissions on the way to net-zero pledges. During the power sector transition, foreseeing conditions affecting the plausibility of pathway options is crucial for specifying an optimal system development strat...

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Main Authors: Hasret Sahin, A. A. Solomon, Arman Aghahosseini, Christian Breyer
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2024-01-01
Series:Nature Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44232-9
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author Hasret Sahin
A. A. Solomon
Arman Aghahosseini
Christian Breyer
author_facet Hasret Sahin
A. A. Solomon
Arman Aghahosseini
Christian Breyer
author_sort Hasret Sahin
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The Glasgow Climate Pact articulated the vital importance of renewables in reducing emissions on the way to net-zero pledges. During the power sector transition, foreseeing conditions affecting the plausibility of pathway options is crucial for specifying an optimal system development strategy. This study examines the net energy performance of nine decarbonisation global energy transition scenarios until 2050 by applying a newly developed systemwide energy return on investment (EROI) model. All scenarios result in an EROI value above the upper limit of the net energy cliff, expected to be around 10. EROI trends heavily depend on transition paths. Once achieving higher renewable energy shares begin requiring significant enabling technologies, EROI continually declines as the shares increase. Shortening the transition period leads to a sharper declining of EROI, which stabilises after achieving 100% renewables. The vulnerability arising from natural gas and oil depletions may have worst impact on EROI of fossil fuels dominated systems.
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spelling doaj.art-faa7a29981ec4397b245ed30763a848b2024-01-07T12:34:40ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232024-01-0115111510.1038/s41467-023-44232-9Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systemsHasret Sahin0A. A. Solomon1Arman Aghahosseini2Christian Breyer3School of Energy Systems, LUT UniversitySchool of Energy Systems, LUT UniversitySchool of Energy Systems, LUT UniversitySchool of Energy Systems, LUT UniversityAbstract The Glasgow Climate Pact articulated the vital importance of renewables in reducing emissions on the way to net-zero pledges. During the power sector transition, foreseeing conditions affecting the plausibility of pathway options is crucial for specifying an optimal system development strategy. This study examines the net energy performance of nine decarbonisation global energy transition scenarios until 2050 by applying a newly developed systemwide energy return on investment (EROI) model. All scenarios result in an EROI value above the upper limit of the net energy cliff, expected to be around 10. EROI trends heavily depend on transition paths. Once achieving higher renewable energy shares begin requiring significant enabling technologies, EROI continually declines as the shares increase. Shortening the transition period leads to a sharper declining of EROI, which stabilises after achieving 100% renewables. The vulnerability arising from natural gas and oil depletions may have worst impact on EROI of fossil fuels dominated systems.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44232-9
spellingShingle Hasret Sahin
A. A. Solomon
Arman Aghahosseini
Christian Breyer
Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems
Nature Communications
title Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems
title_full Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems
title_fullStr Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems
title_full_unstemmed Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems
title_short Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems
title_sort systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44232-9
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AT christianbreyer systemwideenergyreturnoninvestmentinasustainabletransitiontowardsnetzeropowersystems