Attribution analysis of multi-temporal scale changes of streamflow in the source area of Lancang River with seasonal scale Budyko model
Under the influence of climate change and human activities, the intra-annual distribution characteristics of streamflow have changed, directly affecting the exploitation of water resources and the health of ecosystems. The trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPW-MK) test method, concentration de...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1229198/full |
| _version_ | 1797741166278475776 |
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| author | Zhipei Liu Weiqiang Chen Yali Zhang Junchang Huang Yulong Guo Guangxing Ji |
| author_facet | Zhipei Liu Weiqiang Chen Yali Zhang Junchang Huang Yulong Guo Guangxing Ji |
| author_sort | Zhipei Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Under the influence of climate change and human activities, the intra-annual distribution characteristics of streamflow have changed, directly affecting the exploitation of water resources and the health of ecosystems. The trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPW-MK) test method, concentration degree and concentration period, and Bernaola-Galvan (BG) segmentation algorithm were applied to analyze variation trend, intra-annual distribution characteristics, and abrupt year of streamflow. Then, the monthly water storage and monthly actual evaporation of the source area of the Lancang River (SALR) were calculated by the monthly ABCD model. Finally, the contributions of different factors to runoff variability at multiple time scales were quantified using the seasonal-scale Budyko hypothesis approach. The results showed that: (1) The runoff revealed a significant upward trend on the annual scale. Runoff exhibited a significant upward trend in January, October and November, and runoff in other months and seasons exhibited an insignificant upward trend. (2) The intra-annual distribution characteristics of runoff in the SALR showed an obvious “Single-peak type“ distribution, reaching a maximum in July and August. (3) The year of sudden change in streamflow was 2008. (4) The contribution of climate change and human activities to the annual runoff change was 83.3% and 16.7%, respectively. The degree of influence of climate change on runoff change was ranked as spring (96.8%), autumn (85.3%), winter (82.2%) and summer (58.2%). The order of impact of human activity on runoff change was summer (41.8%), winter (17.8%), autumn (14.7%), spring (3.2%). |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T14:22:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fabc5e0251124caf8cdc8fa239334725 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-701X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T14:22:57Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-fabc5e0251124caf8cdc8fa2393347252023-08-18T14:19:55ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution2296-701X2023-08-011110.3389/fevo.2023.12291981229198Attribution analysis of multi-temporal scale changes of streamflow in the source area of Lancang River with seasonal scale Budyko modelZhipei LiuWeiqiang ChenYali ZhangJunchang HuangYulong GuoGuangxing JiUnder the influence of climate change and human activities, the intra-annual distribution characteristics of streamflow have changed, directly affecting the exploitation of water resources and the health of ecosystems. The trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPW-MK) test method, concentration degree and concentration period, and Bernaola-Galvan (BG) segmentation algorithm were applied to analyze variation trend, intra-annual distribution characteristics, and abrupt year of streamflow. Then, the monthly water storage and monthly actual evaporation of the source area of the Lancang River (SALR) were calculated by the monthly ABCD model. Finally, the contributions of different factors to runoff variability at multiple time scales were quantified using the seasonal-scale Budyko hypothesis approach. The results showed that: (1) The runoff revealed a significant upward trend on the annual scale. Runoff exhibited a significant upward trend in January, October and November, and runoff in other months and seasons exhibited an insignificant upward trend. (2) The intra-annual distribution characteristics of runoff in the SALR showed an obvious “Single-peak type“ distribution, reaching a maximum in July and August. (3) The year of sudden change in streamflow was 2008. (4) The contribution of climate change and human activities to the annual runoff change was 83.3% and 16.7%, respectively. The degree of influence of climate change on runoff change was ranked as spring (96.8%), autumn (85.3%), winter (82.2%) and summer (58.2%). The order of impact of human activity on runoff change was summer (41.8%), winter (17.8%), autumn (14.7%), spring (3.2%).https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1229198/fullstreamflow changesmultiple time scalesattribution analysisABCD hydrological modelBudyko hypothesis |
| spellingShingle | Zhipei Liu Weiqiang Chen Yali Zhang Junchang Huang Yulong Guo Guangxing Ji Attribution analysis of multi-temporal scale changes of streamflow in the source area of Lancang River with seasonal scale Budyko model Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution streamflow changes multiple time scales attribution analysis ABCD hydrological model Budyko hypothesis |
| title | Attribution analysis of multi-temporal scale changes of streamflow in the source area of Lancang River with seasonal scale Budyko model |
| title_full | Attribution analysis of multi-temporal scale changes of streamflow in the source area of Lancang River with seasonal scale Budyko model |
| title_fullStr | Attribution analysis of multi-temporal scale changes of streamflow in the source area of Lancang River with seasonal scale Budyko model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Attribution analysis of multi-temporal scale changes of streamflow in the source area of Lancang River with seasonal scale Budyko model |
| title_short | Attribution analysis of multi-temporal scale changes of streamflow in the source area of Lancang River with seasonal scale Budyko model |
| title_sort | attribution analysis of multi temporal scale changes of streamflow in the source area of lancang river with seasonal scale budyko model |
| topic | streamflow changes multiple time scales attribution analysis ABCD hydrological model Budyko hypothesis |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1229198/full |
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