Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models
We present three transmission models of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) with structural differences regarding the disease stage that provides the main contribution to transmission, including models with a prominent role of asymptomatic infection, and fit them to recent c...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2017-03-01
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| Series: | Epidemics |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436516300792 |
| _version_ | 1811313511943372800 |
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| author | Epke A. Le Rutte Lloyd A.C. Chapman Luc E. Coffeng Sarah Jervis Epco C. Hasker Shweta Dwivedi Morchan Karthick Aritra Das Tanmay Mahapatra Indrajit Chaudhuri Marleen C. Boelaert Graham F. Medley Sridhar Srikantiah T. Deirdre Hollingsworth Sake J. de Vlas |
| author_facet | Epke A. Le Rutte Lloyd A.C. Chapman Luc E. Coffeng Sarah Jervis Epco C. Hasker Shweta Dwivedi Morchan Karthick Aritra Das Tanmay Mahapatra Indrajit Chaudhuri Marleen C. Boelaert Graham F. Medley Sridhar Srikantiah T. Deirdre Hollingsworth Sake J. de Vlas |
| author_sort | Epke A. Le Rutte |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We present three transmission models of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) with structural differences regarding the disease stage that provides the main contribution to transmission, including models with a prominent role of asymptomatic infection, and fit them to recent case data from 8 endemic districts in Bihar, India. Following a geographical cross-validation of the models, we compare their predictions for achieving the WHO VL elimination targets with ongoing treatment and vector control strategies. All the transmission models suggest that the WHO elimination target (<1 new VL case per 10,000 capita per year at sub-district level) is likely to be met in Bihar, India, before or close to 2020 in sub-districts with a pre-control incidence of 10 VL cases per 10,000 people per year or less, when current intervention levels (60% coverage of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide and a delay of 40 days from onset of symptoms to treatment (OT)) are maintained, given the accuracy and generalizability of the existing data regarding incidence and IRS coverage. In settings with a pre-control endemicity level of 5/10,000, increasing the effective IRS coverage from 60 to 80% is predicted to lead to elimination of VL 1–3 years earlier (depending on the particular model), and decreasing OT from 40 to 20 days to bring elimination forward by approximately 1 year. However, in all instances the models suggest that L. donovani transmission will continue after 2020 and thus that surveillance and control measures need to remain in place until the longer-term aim of breaking transmission is achieved. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T10:55:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fb4f83ceceb14c19bf2f00108539f1d0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1755-4365 1878-0067 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T10:55:06Z |
| publishDate | 2017-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemics |
| spelling | doaj.art-fb4f83ceceb14c19bf2f00108539f1d02022-12-22T02:49:33ZengElsevierEpidemics1755-43651878-00672017-03-0118C678010.1016/j.epidem.2017.01.002Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission modelsEpke A. Le Rutte0Lloyd A.C. Chapman1Luc E. Coffeng2Sarah Jervis3Epco C. Hasker4Shweta Dwivedi5Morchan Karthick6Aritra Das7Tanmay Mahapatra8Indrajit Chaudhuri9Marleen C. Boelaert10Graham F. Medley11Sridhar Srikantiah12T. Deirdre Hollingsworth13Sake J. de Vlas14Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, P.O. Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The NetherlandsSchool of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Campus, Coventry CV4 7AL, United KingdomDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, P.O. Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The NetherlandsSchool of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Campus, Coventry CV4 7AL, United KingdomInstitute of Tropical Medicine, Nationalestraat 155, 2000 Antwerp, BelgiumCARE India Solutions for Sustainable Development, Patna, Bihar, IndiaCARE India Solutions for Sustainable Development, Patna, Bihar, IndiaCARE India Solutions for Sustainable Development, Patna, Bihar, IndiaCARE India Solutions for Sustainable Development, Patna, Bihar, IndiaCARE India Solutions for Sustainable Development, Patna, Bihar, IndiaInstitute of Tropical Medicine, Nationalestraat 155, 2000 Antwerp, BelgiumLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, United KingdomCARE India Solutions for Sustainable Development, Patna, Bihar, IndiaSchool of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Campus, Coventry CV4 7AL, United KingdomDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, P.O. Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The NetherlandsWe present three transmission models of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) with structural differences regarding the disease stage that provides the main contribution to transmission, including models with a prominent role of asymptomatic infection, and fit them to recent case data from 8 endemic districts in Bihar, India. Following a geographical cross-validation of the models, we compare their predictions for achieving the WHO VL elimination targets with ongoing treatment and vector control strategies. All the transmission models suggest that the WHO elimination target (<1 new VL case per 10,000 capita per year at sub-district level) is likely to be met in Bihar, India, before or close to 2020 in sub-districts with a pre-control incidence of 10 VL cases per 10,000 people per year or less, when current intervention levels (60% coverage of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide and a delay of 40 days from onset of symptoms to treatment (OT)) are maintained, given the accuracy and generalizability of the existing data regarding incidence and IRS coverage. In settings with a pre-control endemicity level of 5/10,000, increasing the effective IRS coverage from 60 to 80% is predicted to lead to elimination of VL 1–3 years earlier (depending on the particular model), and decreasing OT from 40 to 20 days to bring elimination forward by approximately 1 year. However, in all instances the models suggest that L. donovani transmission will continue after 2020 and thus that surveillance and control measures need to remain in place until the longer-term aim of breaking transmission is achieved.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436516300792Visceral leishmaniasisKala-azarEliminationMathematical modellingIndoor residual sprayingDetection and treatmentIndian subcontinentNeglected tropical diseaseSandflyTransmission dynamicsPredictions |
| spellingShingle | Epke A. Le Rutte Lloyd A.C. Chapman Luc E. Coffeng Sarah Jervis Epco C. Hasker Shweta Dwivedi Morchan Karthick Aritra Das Tanmay Mahapatra Indrajit Chaudhuri Marleen C. Boelaert Graham F. Medley Sridhar Srikantiah T. Deirdre Hollingsworth Sake J. de Vlas Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models Epidemics Visceral leishmaniasis Kala-azar Elimination Mathematical modelling Indoor residual spraying Detection and treatment Indian subcontinent Neglected tropical disease Sandfly Transmission dynamics Predictions |
| title | Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models |
| title_full | Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models |
| title_fullStr | Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models |
| title_short | Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models |
| title_sort | elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the indian subcontinent a comparison of predictions from three transmission models |
| topic | Visceral leishmaniasis Kala-azar Elimination Mathematical modelling Indoor residual spraying Detection and treatment Indian subcontinent Neglected tropical disease Sandfly Transmission dynamics Predictions |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436516300792 |
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