Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban Shanghai, China from 1973 to 2017: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis
Background and purposeTo provide a comprehensive overview of epidemiological features and temporal trends of pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2017.MethodsData on pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai were obtained through the Shanghai Cancer Registry and the Vital Statistics System. Jo...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1113301/full |
| _version_ | 1797770998304473088 |
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| author | Mengyin Wu Kai Gu Yangming Gong Chunxiao Wu Yi Pang Wei Zhang Chunfang Wang Yan Shi Yingbin Liu Chen Fu Chen Fu |
| author_facet | Mengyin Wu Kai Gu Yangming Gong Chunxiao Wu Yi Pang Wei Zhang Chunfang Wang Yan Shi Yingbin Liu Chen Fu Chen Fu |
| author_sort | Mengyin Wu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background and purposeTo provide a comprehensive overview of epidemiological features and temporal trends of pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2017.MethodsData on pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai were obtained through the Shanghai Cancer Registry and the Vital Statistics System. Joinpoint analysis was used to describe the temporal trends and annual percent changes (APCs) and age-period-cohort analysis were used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on pancreatic cancer.ResultsThere were a total of 29,253 cases and 27,105 deaths of pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai over the 45-year study period. The overall average annual age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were 5.45/100,000 and 5.02/100,000, respectively. Both the incidence and mortality rates demonstrated fluctuating upward trends, with an average annual increase rate of 1.51% (APC = 1.51, P < 0.001) and 1.04% (APC = 1.04, P < 0.001), respectively. The upward trend in incidence was greater for females than for males, while the trend in mortality was seen in both sexes equally and continuously. In recent years (2013-2017), the age-specific incidence rates increased further than before, with statistically significant changes in the 35-year, 45- to 55-year and 70- to 85-year age groups (P < 0.05). The age-specific mortality rates also showed obvious upward trends, which in the 50- to 55-year, and 75- to 85-year age groups increased significantly. The results of the age-period-cohort analysis suggested significant effects of age, period, and cohort on the prevalence of pancreatic cancer.ConclusionThe prevalence of pancreatic cancer, dramatically influenced by socioeconomic development and lifestyles, demonstrated a significant upward trend from 1973 to 2017 in urban Shanghai and underscored the necessity and urgency for additional efforts in primary and secondary prevention measures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T21:31:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fb625c56a8b84c9fb75bb745f5e614c2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2234-943X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T21:31:08Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Oncology |
| spelling | doaj.art-fb625c56a8b84c9fb75bb745f5e614c22023-07-27T21:52:21ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Oncology2234-943X2023-07-011310.3389/fonc.2023.11133011113301Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban Shanghai, China from 1973 to 2017: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysisMengyin Wu0Kai Gu1Yangming Gong2Chunxiao Wu3Yi Pang4Wei Zhang5Chunfang Wang6Yan Shi7Yingbin Liu8Chen Fu9Chen Fu10Division of Noncommunicable Diseases and Injury, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, ChinaDivision of Noncommunicable Diseases and Injury, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, ChinaDivision of Noncommunicable Diseases and Injury, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, ChinaDivision of Noncommunicable Diseases and Injury, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, ChinaDivision of Noncommunicable Diseases and Injury, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, ChinaSKLORG & Department of Epidemiology, Shanghai Cancer Institute, Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDivision of Public Health Informatics, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, ChinaDivision of Noncommunicable Diseases and Injury, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Renji Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaShanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, ChinaShanghai Clinical Research Center for Aging and Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaBackground and purposeTo provide a comprehensive overview of epidemiological features and temporal trends of pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2017.MethodsData on pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai were obtained through the Shanghai Cancer Registry and the Vital Statistics System. Joinpoint analysis was used to describe the temporal trends and annual percent changes (APCs) and age-period-cohort analysis were used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on pancreatic cancer.ResultsThere were a total of 29,253 cases and 27,105 deaths of pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai over the 45-year study period. The overall average annual age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were 5.45/100,000 and 5.02/100,000, respectively. Both the incidence and mortality rates demonstrated fluctuating upward trends, with an average annual increase rate of 1.51% (APC = 1.51, P < 0.001) and 1.04% (APC = 1.04, P < 0.001), respectively. The upward trend in incidence was greater for females than for males, while the trend in mortality was seen in both sexes equally and continuously. In recent years (2013-2017), the age-specific incidence rates increased further than before, with statistically significant changes in the 35-year, 45- to 55-year and 70- to 85-year age groups (P < 0.05). The age-specific mortality rates also showed obvious upward trends, which in the 50- to 55-year, and 75- to 85-year age groups increased significantly. The results of the age-period-cohort analysis suggested significant effects of age, period, and cohort on the prevalence of pancreatic cancer.ConclusionThe prevalence of pancreatic cancer, dramatically influenced by socioeconomic development and lifestyles, demonstrated a significant upward trend from 1973 to 2017 in urban Shanghai and underscored the necessity and urgency for additional efforts in primary and secondary prevention measures.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1113301/fullprevalencetrendjoinpoint regression analysisage-period-cohort analysispancreatic cancer |
| spellingShingle | Mengyin Wu Kai Gu Yangming Gong Chunxiao Wu Yi Pang Wei Zhang Chunfang Wang Yan Shi Yingbin Liu Chen Fu Chen Fu Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban Shanghai, China from 1973 to 2017: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis Frontiers in Oncology prevalence trend joinpoint regression analysis age-period-cohort analysis pancreatic cancer |
| title | Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban Shanghai, China from 1973 to 2017: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_full | Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban Shanghai, China from 1973 to 2017: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_fullStr | Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban Shanghai, China from 1973 to 2017: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban Shanghai, China from 1973 to 2017: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_short | Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban Shanghai, China from 1973 to 2017: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_sort | pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban shanghai china from 1973 to 2017 a joinpoint regression and age period cohort analysis |
| topic | prevalence trend joinpoint regression analysis age-period-cohort analysis pancreatic cancer |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1113301/full |
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