The Polar WRF Downscaled Historical and Projected Twenty-First Century Climate for the Coast and Foothills of Arctic Alaska
Climate change is most pronounced in the northern high latitude region. Yet, climate observations are unable to fully capture regional-scale dynamics due to the sparse weather station coverage, which limits our ability to make reliable climate-based assessments. A set of simulated data products was...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Earth Science |
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| Online Access: | http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2017.00111/full |
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| author | Lei Cai Vladimir A. Alexeev Christopher D. Arp Benjamin M. Jones Anna K. Liljedahl Anne Gädeke |
| author_facet | Lei Cai Vladimir A. Alexeev Christopher D. Arp Benjamin M. Jones Anna K. Liljedahl Anne Gädeke |
| author_sort | Lei Cai |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is most pronounced in the northern high latitude region. Yet, climate observations are unable to fully capture regional-scale dynamics due to the sparse weather station coverage, which limits our ability to make reliable climate-based assessments. A set of simulated data products was therefore developed for the North Slope of Alaska through a dynamical downscaling approach. The polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecast (Polar WRF) model was forced by three sources: The ERA-interim reanalysis data (for 1979–2014), the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0) historical simulation (for 1950–2005), and the CESM1.0 projected (for 2006–2100) simulations in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Climatic variables were produced in a 10-km grid spacing and a 3-h interval. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) proves the value of dynamical downscaling, which yields more realistic topographical-induced precipitation and air temperature, as well as corrects underestimations in observed precipitation. In summary, dry and cold biases to the north of the Brooks Range are presented in ERA-WRF, while CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) holds wet and warm biases in its historical period. A linear scaling method allowed for an adjustment of the biases, while keeping the majority of the variability and extreme values of modeled precipitation and air temperature. CESM-WRF under RCP 4.5 scenario projects smaller increase in precipitation and air temperature than observed in the historical CESM-WRF product, while the CESM-WRF under RCP 8.5 scenario shows larger changes. The fine spatial and temporal resolution, long temporal coverage, and multi-scenario projections jointly make the dataset appropriate to address a myriad of physical and biological changes occurring on the North Slope of Alaska. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T10:03:44Z |
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| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T10:03:44Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-fb810fcb86574a4fb3cd77b6520689072022-12-22T03:37:30ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Earth Science2296-64632018-01-01510.3389/feart.2017.00111308121The Polar WRF Downscaled Historical and Projected Twenty-First Century Climate for the Coast and Foothills of Arctic AlaskaLei Cai0Vladimir A. Alexeev1Christopher D. Arp2Benjamin M. Jones3Anna K. Liljedahl4Anne Gädeke5International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United StatesInternational Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United StatesWater and Environment Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United StatesU.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK, United StatesWater and Environment Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United StatesWater and Environment Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United StatesClimate change is most pronounced in the northern high latitude region. Yet, climate observations are unable to fully capture regional-scale dynamics due to the sparse weather station coverage, which limits our ability to make reliable climate-based assessments. A set of simulated data products was therefore developed for the North Slope of Alaska through a dynamical downscaling approach. The polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecast (Polar WRF) model was forced by three sources: The ERA-interim reanalysis data (for 1979–2014), the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0) historical simulation (for 1950–2005), and the CESM1.0 projected (for 2006–2100) simulations in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Climatic variables were produced in a 10-km grid spacing and a 3-h interval. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) proves the value of dynamical downscaling, which yields more realistic topographical-induced precipitation and air temperature, as well as corrects underestimations in observed precipitation. In summary, dry and cold biases to the north of the Brooks Range are presented in ERA-WRF, while CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) holds wet and warm biases in its historical period. A linear scaling method allowed for an adjustment of the biases, while keeping the majority of the variability and extreme values of modeled precipitation and air temperature. CESM-WRF under RCP 4.5 scenario projects smaller increase in precipitation and air temperature than observed in the historical CESM-WRF product, while the CESM-WRF under RCP 8.5 scenario shows larger changes. The fine spatial and temporal resolution, long temporal coverage, and multi-scenario projections jointly make the dataset appropriate to address a myriad of physical and biological changes occurring on the North Slope of Alaska.http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2017.00111/fullclimateNorth Slope of Alaskadynamical downscalingclimate projectionsbias correction |
| spellingShingle | Lei Cai Vladimir A. Alexeev Christopher D. Arp Benjamin M. Jones Anna K. Liljedahl Anne Gädeke The Polar WRF Downscaled Historical and Projected Twenty-First Century Climate for the Coast and Foothills of Arctic Alaska Frontiers in Earth Science climate North Slope of Alaska dynamical downscaling climate projections bias correction |
| title | The Polar WRF Downscaled Historical and Projected Twenty-First Century Climate for the Coast and Foothills of Arctic Alaska |
| title_full | The Polar WRF Downscaled Historical and Projected Twenty-First Century Climate for the Coast and Foothills of Arctic Alaska |
| title_fullStr | The Polar WRF Downscaled Historical and Projected Twenty-First Century Climate for the Coast and Foothills of Arctic Alaska |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Polar WRF Downscaled Historical and Projected Twenty-First Century Climate for the Coast and Foothills of Arctic Alaska |
| title_short | The Polar WRF Downscaled Historical and Projected Twenty-First Century Climate for the Coast and Foothills of Arctic Alaska |
| title_sort | polar wrf downscaled historical and projected twenty first century climate for the coast and foothills of arctic alaska |
| topic | climate North Slope of Alaska dynamical downscaling climate projections bias correction |
| url | http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2017.00111/full |
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