Expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games
We study whether experts and novices differ in the way they make predictions about National Football League games. In particular, we measure to what extent their predictions are consistent with five environmental regularities that could support decision making based on heuristics. These regularities...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/21/210729a/jdm210729a.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797764972572311552 |
|---|---|
| author | Lauren E. Montgomery Michael D. Lee |
| author_facet | Lauren E. Montgomery Michael D. Lee |
| author_sort | Lauren E. Montgomery |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We study whether experts
and novices differ in the way they make predictions about National Football
League games. In particular, we measure to what extent their predictions are
consistent with five environmental regularities that could support decision
making based on heuristics. These regularities involve the home team winning
more often, the team with the better win-loss record winning more often, the
team favored by the majority of media experts winning more often, and two
others related to surprise wins and losses in the teams’ previous game. Using
signal detection theory and hierarchical Bayesian analysis, we show that expert
predictions for the 2017 National Football League (NFL) season generally follow
these regularities in a near optimal way, but novice predictions do not. These
results support the idea that using heuristics adapted to the decision
environment can support accurate predictions and be an indicator of
expertise. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T20:04:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fba3f212d85b40b6be6fbf2ec8be7e5d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T20:04:20Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-fba3f212d85b40b6be6fbf2ec8be7e5d2023-08-02T02:16:05ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752021-11-0116613701391Expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL gamesLauren E. MontgomeryMichael D. LeeWe study whether experts and novices differ in the way they make predictions about National Football League games. In particular, we measure to what extent their predictions are consistent with five environmental regularities that could support decision making based on heuristics. These regularities involve the home team winning more often, the team with the better win-loss record winning more often, the team favored by the majority of media experts winning more often, and two others related to surprise wins and losses in the teams’ previous game. Using signal detection theory and hierarchical Bayesian analysis, we show that expert predictions for the 2017 National Football League (NFL) season generally follow these regularities in a near optimal way, but novice predictions do not. These results support the idea that using heuristics adapted to the decision environment can support accurate predictions and be an indicator of expertise.http://journal.sjdm.org/21/210729a/jdm210729a.pdfenvironmental regularities heuristic decision making predictions expert and novice decision making signal detection theorynakeywords |
| spellingShingle | Lauren E. Montgomery Michael D. Lee Expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games Judgment and Decision Making environmental regularities heuristic decision making predictions expert and novice decision making signal detection theorynakeywords |
| title | Expert and novice
sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games |
| title_full | Expert and novice
sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games |
| title_fullStr | Expert and novice
sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games |
| title_full_unstemmed | Expert and novice
sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games |
| title_short | Expert and novice
sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games |
| title_sort | expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting nfl games |
| topic | environmental regularities heuristic decision making predictions expert and novice decision making signal detection theorynakeywords |
| url | http://journal.sjdm.org/21/210729a/jdm210729a.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT laurenemontgomery expertandnovicesensitivitytoenvironmentalregularitiesinpredictingnflgames AT michaeldlee expertandnovicesensitivitytoenvironmentalregularitiesinpredictingnflgames |