Sensitivity and attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for streamflow change in the Baiyangdian catchment, China
In the past 50 years, the decrease of river runoff in China has attracted wide attention from government decision-making departments and the public. The Baiyangdian catchment is one of the regions with the most serious water shortage and the most prominent human-water conflicts, and attribution anal...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2021-02-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X20311602 |
| _version_ | 1818425840568893440 |
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| author | Henian Wang Xizhi Lv Manyin Zhang |
| author_facet | Henian Wang Xizhi Lv Manyin Zhang |
| author_sort | Henian Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In the past 50 years, the decrease of river runoff in China has attracted wide attention from government decision-making departments and the public. The Baiyangdian catchment is one of the regions with the most serious water shortage and the most prominent human-water conflicts, and attribution analysis of the runoff change is of considerable interest at a range of spatial scales. The Budyko framework has been widely used to attribute changes in streamflow to the effects of climate and catchment changes. In this study, we used the elasticity method based on the Budyko framework to examine the sensitivity of streamflow to climate and catchment variables, which indicated that a 1-mm decrease in precipitation would induce a 0.3546-mm decrease in streamflow, a 1-mm decrease in potential evapotranspiration would induce a 0.1045-mm increase in streamflow, and an increase of 1 in the catchment characteristic coefficient would induce a 79.6711-mm decrease in streamflow. The absolute sensitivities of streamflow to climate variables decreased with increases in the aridity index, which indicates that the streamflow was more sensitive to climate change in wet regions. Among the total changes in streamflow (−43.41 mm), the effect of climate change was +3.86 mm (accounting for 7.55%), and the effect of the catchment characteristic changes is −45.99 mm (accounting for 89.95%) based on the sensitivity analyses. The results indicate that streamflow changes in the Baiyangdian catchment are mainly caused by catchment changes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T14:20:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fbcf89143f154935bd9a82a903c33511 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T14:20:20Z |
| publishDate | 2021-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-fbcf89143f154935bd9a82a903c335112022-12-21T22:58:06ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2021-02-01121107221Sensitivity and attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for streamflow change in the Baiyangdian catchment, ChinaHenian Wang0Xizhi Lv1Manyin Zhang2Institute of Wetland Research, Chinese Academy of Forestry, No.1 Dongxiaofu, Haidian district, Beijing 100091, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Wetland Services and Restoration, Beijing 100091, ChinaYellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Zhengzhou 450003, China; Corresponding authors at: Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, No. 45 Shunhe Road, Zhengzhou 450003, China (X. Lv). Institute of Wetland Research, Chinese Academy of Forestry, No.1 Dongxiaofu, Haidian district, Beijing 100091, China (M. Zhang).Institute of Wetland Research, Chinese Academy of Forestry, No.1 Dongxiaofu, Haidian district, Beijing 100091, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Wetland Services and Restoration, Beijing 100091, China; Corresponding authors at: Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, No. 45 Shunhe Road, Zhengzhou 450003, China (X. Lv). Institute of Wetland Research, Chinese Academy of Forestry, No.1 Dongxiaofu, Haidian district, Beijing 100091, China (M. Zhang).In the past 50 years, the decrease of river runoff in China has attracted wide attention from government decision-making departments and the public. The Baiyangdian catchment is one of the regions with the most serious water shortage and the most prominent human-water conflicts, and attribution analysis of the runoff change is of considerable interest at a range of spatial scales. The Budyko framework has been widely used to attribute changes in streamflow to the effects of climate and catchment changes. In this study, we used the elasticity method based on the Budyko framework to examine the sensitivity of streamflow to climate and catchment variables, which indicated that a 1-mm decrease in precipitation would induce a 0.3546-mm decrease in streamflow, a 1-mm decrease in potential evapotranspiration would induce a 0.1045-mm increase in streamflow, and an increase of 1 in the catchment characteristic coefficient would induce a 79.6711-mm decrease in streamflow. The absolute sensitivities of streamflow to climate variables decreased with increases in the aridity index, which indicates that the streamflow was more sensitive to climate change in wet regions. Among the total changes in streamflow (−43.41 mm), the effect of climate change was +3.86 mm (accounting for 7.55%), and the effect of the catchment characteristic changes is −45.99 mm (accounting for 89.95%) based on the sensitivity analyses. The results indicate that streamflow changes in the Baiyangdian catchment are mainly caused by catchment changes.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X20311602Attribution analysisBudyko hypothesisStreamflow changeBaiyangdian catchment |
| spellingShingle | Henian Wang Xizhi Lv Manyin Zhang Sensitivity and attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for streamflow change in the Baiyangdian catchment, China Ecological Indicators Attribution analysis Budyko hypothesis Streamflow change Baiyangdian catchment |
| title | Sensitivity and attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for streamflow change in the Baiyangdian catchment, China |
| title_full | Sensitivity and attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for streamflow change in the Baiyangdian catchment, China |
| title_fullStr | Sensitivity and attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for streamflow change in the Baiyangdian catchment, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sensitivity and attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for streamflow change in the Baiyangdian catchment, China |
| title_short | Sensitivity and attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for streamflow change in the Baiyangdian catchment, China |
| title_sort | sensitivity and attribution analysis based on the budyko hypothesis for streamflow change in the baiyangdian catchment china |
| topic | Attribution analysis Budyko hypothesis Streamflow change Baiyangdian catchment |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X20311602 |
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