| Summary: | Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a widely prevalent disease with significant mortality and disability rates and has become the third leading cause of death globally. Patients with acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) often substantially suffer deterioration and death. Therefore, COPD patients deserve special consideration regarding treatment in this fragile population for pre-clinical health management. Based on the above, this paper proposes an AECOPD prediction model based on the Auto-Metric Graph Neural Network (AMGNN) using inspiratory and expiratory chest low-dose CT images. This study was approved by the ethics committee in the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University. Subsequently, 202 COPD patients with inspiratory and expiratory chest CT Images and their annual number of AECOPD were collected after the exclusion. First, the inspiratory and expiratory lung parenchyma images of the 202 COPD patients are extracted using a trained ResU-Net. Then, inspiratory and expiratory lung Radiomics and CNN features are extracted from the 202 inspiratory and expiratory lung parenchyma images by Pyradiomics and pre-trained Med3D (a heterogeneous 3D network), respectively. Last, Radiomics and CNN features are combined and then further selected by the Lasso algorithm and generalized linear model for determining node features and risk factors of AMGNN, and then the AECOPD prediction model is established. Compared to related models, the proposed model performs best, achieving an accuracy of 0.944, precision of 0.950, F1-score of 0.944, ad area under the curve of 0.965. Therefore, it is concluded that our model may become an effective tool for AECOPD prediction.
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