Identification of FactorsInfluencing the Puumala Virus Seroprevalence within Its Reservoir in aMontane Forest Environment
Puumala virus (PUUV) is a major cause of mild to moderate haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and is transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). There has been a high cumulative incidence of recorded human cases in South-eastern Germany since 2004 when the region was first recognized as bein...
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MDPI AG
2014-10-01
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| Series: | Viruses |
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| Online Access: | http://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/6/10/3944 |
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| author | Bryan R. Thoma Jörg Müller Claus Bässler Enrico Georgi Anja Osterberg Susanne Schex Christian Bottomley Sandra S. Essbauer |
| author_facet | Bryan R. Thoma Jörg Müller Claus Bässler Enrico Georgi Anja Osterberg Susanne Schex Christian Bottomley Sandra S. Essbauer |
| author_sort | Bryan R. Thoma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Puumala virus (PUUV) is a major cause of mild to moderate haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and is transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). There has been a high cumulative incidence of recorded human cases in South-eastern Germany since 2004 when the region was first recognized as being endemic for PUUV. As the area is well known for outdoor recreation and the Bavarian Forest National Park (BFNP) is located in the region, the increasing numbers of recorded cases are of concern. To understand the population and environmental effects on the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles we trapped small mammals at 23 sites along an elevation gradient from 317 to 1420m above sea level. Generalized linear mixed effects models(GLMEM) were used to explore associations between the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles and climate and biotic factors. We found that the seroprevalence of PUUV was low (6%–7%) in 2008 and 2009, and reached 29% in 2010. PUUV seroprevalence was positively associated with the local species diversity and deadwood layer, and negatively associated with mean annual temperature, mean annual solar radiation, and herb layer. Based on these findings, an illustrative risk map for PUUV seroprevalence prediction in bank voles was created for an area of the national park. The map will help when planning infrastructure in the national park (e.g., huts, shelters, and trails). |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T09:40:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fbeb7cea2cdf4f3ba399fa9d2a085108 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4915 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T09:40:10Z |
| publishDate | 2014-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Viruses |
| spelling | doaj.art-fbeb7cea2cdf4f3ba399fa9d2a0851082022-12-21T23:52:14ZengMDPI AGViruses1999-49152014-10-016103944396710.3390/v6103944v6103944Identification of FactorsInfluencing the Puumala Virus Seroprevalence within Its Reservoir in aMontane Forest EnvironmentBryan R. Thoma0Jörg Müller1Claus Bässler2Enrico Georgi3Anja Osterberg4Susanne Schex5Christian Bottomley6Sandra S. Essbauer7Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, GermanyBavarian Forest National Park, Freyunger Str. 2, 94481 Grafenau, GermanyBavarian Forest National Park, Freyunger Str. 2, 94481 Grafenau, GermanyBundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, GermanyBundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, GermanyBundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, GermanyMRC Tropical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, UKBundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, GermanyPuumala virus (PUUV) is a major cause of mild to moderate haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and is transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). There has been a high cumulative incidence of recorded human cases in South-eastern Germany since 2004 when the region was first recognized as being endemic for PUUV. As the area is well known for outdoor recreation and the Bavarian Forest National Park (BFNP) is located in the region, the increasing numbers of recorded cases are of concern. To understand the population and environmental effects on the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles we trapped small mammals at 23 sites along an elevation gradient from 317 to 1420m above sea level. Generalized linear mixed effects models(GLMEM) were used to explore associations between the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles and climate and biotic factors. We found that the seroprevalence of PUUV was low (6%–7%) in 2008 and 2009, and reached 29% in 2010. PUUV seroprevalence was positively associated with the local species diversity and deadwood layer, and negatively associated with mean annual temperature, mean annual solar radiation, and herb layer. Based on these findings, an illustrative risk map for PUUV seroprevalence prediction in bank voles was created for an area of the national park. The map will help when planning infrastructure in the national park (e.g., huts, shelters, and trails).http://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/6/10/3944bank volePuumala virusclimatepopulationforestrisk predictionGLMEM |
| spellingShingle | Bryan R. Thoma Jörg Müller Claus Bässler Enrico Georgi Anja Osterberg Susanne Schex Christian Bottomley Sandra S. Essbauer Identification of FactorsInfluencing the Puumala Virus Seroprevalence within Its Reservoir in aMontane Forest Environment Viruses bank vole Puumala virus climate population forest risk prediction GLMEM |
| title | Identification of FactorsInfluencing the Puumala Virus Seroprevalence within Its Reservoir in aMontane Forest Environment |
| title_full | Identification of FactorsInfluencing the Puumala Virus Seroprevalence within Its Reservoir in aMontane Forest Environment |
| title_fullStr | Identification of FactorsInfluencing the Puumala Virus Seroprevalence within Its Reservoir in aMontane Forest Environment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identification of FactorsInfluencing the Puumala Virus Seroprevalence within Its Reservoir in aMontane Forest Environment |
| title_short | Identification of FactorsInfluencing the Puumala Virus Seroprevalence within Its Reservoir in aMontane Forest Environment |
| title_sort | identification of factorsinfluencing the puumala virus seroprevalence within its reservoir in amontane forest environment |
| topic | bank vole Puumala virus climate population forest risk prediction GLMEM |
| url | http://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/6/10/3944 |
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