Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into the Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China
The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the declin...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2016-04-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1561/2016/hess-20-1561-2016.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818560222399037440 |
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| author | J. Zheng G. Sun W. Li X. Yu C. Zhang Y. Gong L. Tu |
| author_facet | J. Zheng G. Sun W. Li X. Yu C. Zhang Y. Gong L. Tu |
| author_sort | J. Zheng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has
experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest
that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water
supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the
decline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate in
the past 4 decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify
the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate
variability to the decreasing inflow into the Miyun Reservoir during 1961–2008.
Different from previous studies on this watershed, we used a comprehensive
approach to quantify the timing of changes in hydrology and associated
environmental variables using the long-term historical hydrometeorology and
remote-sensing-based land use records. To effectively quantify the different
impacts of the climate variation and land use change on streamflow during
different sub-periods, an annual water balance model (AWB), the climate elasticity
model (CEM), and a rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct
attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant (<i>p</i> < 0.01)
decrease in annual streamflow, a significant positive trend in annual
potential evapotranspiration (<i>p</i> < 0.01), and an insignificant
(<i>p</i> > 0.1) negative trend in annual precipitation during 1961–2008.
We identified two streamflow breakpoints, 1983 and 1999, by the sequential
Mann–Kendall test and double-mass curve. Climate variability alone did not
explain the decrease in inflow to the Miyun Reservoir. Reduction of water yield
was closely related to increase in actual evapotranspiration due to the
expansion of forestland and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was
likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and
industrial uses in the basin. The contribution to the observed streamflow
decline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to
36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climate
variation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 %
during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that
climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the most
recent decade (i.e., 2000s). We conclude that future climate change and
variability will further challenge the water supply capacity of the Miyun
Reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management
strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation
management in the study basin. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T00:35:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fc147cf40fa64272a91ec9936aa0c835 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T00:35:43Z |
| publishDate | 2016-04-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-fc147cf40fa64272a91ec9936aa0c8352022-12-21T23:24:41ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382016-04-012041561157210.5194/hess-20-1561-2016Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into the Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, ChinaJ. Zheng0G. Sun1W. Li2X. Yu3C. Zhang4Y. Gong5L. Tu6College of Forestry, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 611130, ChinaEastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, 920 Main Campus, Venture II, Suite 300, Raleigh, NC 27606, USAEarth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USASchool of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, ChinaEarth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USACollege of Forestry, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 611130, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 611130, ChinaThe Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate in the past 4 decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into the Miyun Reservoir during 1961–2008. Different from previous studies on this watershed, we used a comprehensive approach to quantify the timing of changes in hydrology and associated environmental variables using the long-term historical hydrometeorology and remote-sensing-based land use records. To effectively quantify the different impacts of the climate variation and land use change on streamflow during different sub-periods, an annual water balance model (AWB), the climate elasticity model (CEM), and a rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant (<i>p</i> < 0.01) decrease in annual streamflow, a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration (<i>p</i> < 0.01), and an insignificant (<i>p</i> > 0.1) negative trend in annual precipitation during 1961–2008. We identified two streamflow breakpoints, 1983 and 1999, by the sequential Mann–Kendall test and double-mass curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to the Miyun Reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in actual evapotranspiration due to the expansion of forestland and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. The contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to 36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 % during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the most recent decade (i.e., 2000s). We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the water supply capacity of the Miyun Reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management in the study basin.http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1561/2016/hess-20-1561-2016.pdf |
| spellingShingle | J. Zheng G. Sun W. Li X. Yu C. Zhang Y. Gong L. Tu Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into the Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into the Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China |
| title_full | Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into the Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into the Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into the Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China |
| title_short | Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into the Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China |
| title_sort | impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into the miyun reservoir beijing china |
| url | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1561/2016/hess-20-1561-2016.pdf |
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