A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries

A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries

We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reprodu...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Kossi Amouzouvi, Kétévi A. Assamagan, Somiéalo Azote, Simon H. Connell, Jean Baptiste Fankam Fankam, Fenosoa Fanomezana, Aluwani Guga, Cyrille E. Haliya, Toivo S. Mabote, Francisco Fenias Macucule, Dephney Mathebula, Azwinndini Muronga, Kondwani C.C. Mwale, Ann Njeri, Ebode F. Onyie, Laza Rakotondravohitra, George Zimba
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2021-11-01
Series:Scientific African
Subjects:
COVID-19
SIDARTHE
Basic reproduction number
SARS-CoV-2
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246822762100291X
Description
Summary:We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R0, and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R0≤4 at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to R0∼1. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between 1−10% of the recovered cases.
ISSN:2468-2276

Similar Items