Monitoring climate extremes using standardized evapotranspiration index and future projection of rainfall and temperature in the wettest parts of southwest Ethiopia
Ethiopia is categorized as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate extremes. A better understanding of climate extremes at short and long timescales is therefore crucial to minimize the potential impacts of these extremes. The present study aimed to characterize the frequency and severity of...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Environmental Challenges |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667010022000762 |
| _version_ | 1817986505590702080 |
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| author | Dessalegn Obsi Gemeda Diriba Korecha Weyessa Garedew |
| author_facet | Dessalegn Obsi Gemeda Diriba Korecha Weyessa Garedew |
| author_sort | Dessalegn Obsi Gemeda |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Ethiopia is categorized as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate extremes. A better understanding of climate extremes at short and long timescales is therefore crucial to minimize the potential impacts of these extremes. The present study aimed to characterize the frequency and severity of agricultural and hydrological drought in southwestern parts of Ethiopia over the period 1971 to 2020. Satellite blended/gridded and historical observed monthly rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature data of nine stations (Arjo, Bako Tibe, Bedele, Didessa Dildey, Gedo, Gimbi, Sekoru, Serbo and Nekemte) were obtained from Ethiopia National Meteorological Agency. We used standardized evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to calculate the dry and wet condition at 3-, 6-, and 12-months timescales. Besides, past climate change analysis, future rainfall and temperature were projected under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of CMIP5 for the near and mid-term (2041-2060) and end of the twenty-first century (2081-2100). Our results showed that the frequency of drought in the short timescales is much higher than that of the longer timescales. In the present study, a total of 108 and 111 drought months were observed at Bedele and Nekemte, respectively at SPEI 3 and both stations recorded a total of 101 at SPEI 6. An increase in projected mean minimum and maximum temperature by 1.2°C was observed by the end of 21st century comparative to the reference time (1986-2005) under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). Projected changes in rainfall showed a slight increase over the periods 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 under RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, while projected trends under RCP2.6 indicated a slight decrease. The results of this study will be useful to design effective climate resilience agriculture in the study area. Moreover, it provides evidences for policy makers towards climate change adaptation and mitigation in the southwestern parts of the country. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T00:10:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fc1e4d38739d47bca6f1bebbd0f54217 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2667-0100 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T00:10:06Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Challenges |
| spelling | doaj.art-fc1e4d38739d47bca6f1bebbd0f542172022-12-22T02:23:23ZengElsevierEnvironmental Challenges2667-01002022-04-017100517Monitoring climate extremes using standardized evapotranspiration index and future projection of rainfall and temperature in the wettest parts of southwest EthiopiaDessalegn Obsi Gemeda0Diriba Korecha1Weyessa Garedew2Jimma University College of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine, Department of Natural Resources Management, Jimma University, Ethiopia; Corresponding authors.Famine Early Warning Systems Network, Addis Ababa Ethiopia, EthiopiaJimma University College of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine, Department of Horticulture and Plant Sciences, Jimma University, EthiopiaEthiopia is categorized as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate extremes. A better understanding of climate extremes at short and long timescales is therefore crucial to minimize the potential impacts of these extremes. The present study aimed to characterize the frequency and severity of agricultural and hydrological drought in southwestern parts of Ethiopia over the period 1971 to 2020. Satellite blended/gridded and historical observed monthly rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature data of nine stations (Arjo, Bako Tibe, Bedele, Didessa Dildey, Gedo, Gimbi, Sekoru, Serbo and Nekemte) were obtained from Ethiopia National Meteorological Agency. We used standardized evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to calculate the dry and wet condition at 3-, 6-, and 12-months timescales. Besides, past climate change analysis, future rainfall and temperature were projected under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of CMIP5 for the near and mid-term (2041-2060) and end of the twenty-first century (2081-2100). Our results showed that the frequency of drought in the short timescales is much higher than that of the longer timescales. In the present study, a total of 108 and 111 drought months were observed at Bedele and Nekemte, respectively at SPEI 3 and both stations recorded a total of 101 at SPEI 6. An increase in projected mean minimum and maximum temperature by 1.2°C was observed by the end of 21st century comparative to the reference time (1986-2005) under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). Projected changes in rainfall showed a slight increase over the periods 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 under RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, while projected trends under RCP2.6 indicated a slight decrease. The results of this study will be useful to design effective climate resilience agriculture in the study area. Moreover, it provides evidences for policy makers towards climate change adaptation and mitigation in the southwestern parts of the country.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667010022000762Agricultural droughtClimate changeClimate change projectionDrought indicesrepresentative concentration pathways |
| spellingShingle | Dessalegn Obsi Gemeda Diriba Korecha Weyessa Garedew Monitoring climate extremes using standardized evapotranspiration index and future projection of rainfall and temperature in the wettest parts of southwest Ethiopia Environmental Challenges Agricultural drought Climate change Climate change projection Drought indices representative concentration pathways |
| title | Monitoring climate extremes using standardized evapotranspiration index and future projection of rainfall and temperature in the wettest parts of southwest Ethiopia |
| title_full | Monitoring climate extremes using standardized evapotranspiration index and future projection of rainfall and temperature in the wettest parts of southwest Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Monitoring climate extremes using standardized evapotranspiration index and future projection of rainfall and temperature in the wettest parts of southwest Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Monitoring climate extremes using standardized evapotranspiration index and future projection of rainfall and temperature in the wettest parts of southwest Ethiopia |
| title_short | Monitoring climate extremes using standardized evapotranspiration index and future projection of rainfall and temperature in the wettest parts of southwest Ethiopia |
| title_sort | monitoring climate extremes using standardized evapotranspiration index and future projection of rainfall and temperature in the wettest parts of southwest ethiopia |
| topic | Agricultural drought Climate change Climate change projection Drought indices representative concentration pathways |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667010022000762 |
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