Forecasting Of Production And Export Indonesian Pepper Commodities Using Smoothing Exponential And Holt Winter Methods
Purpose: The last few years the contribution of Indonesian pepper in the world market has decreased and has been replaced by Vietnam. If in 2000 and a few years before Indonesia became the world’s main pepper exporter, since 2001 the position has been replaced by Vietnam. In 2006 Indonesia’s positi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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LPPM of Narotama University Surabaya
2021-04-01
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| Series: | IJEBD (International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Business Development) |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://jurnal.narotama.ac.id/index.php/ijebd/article/view/1368 |
| _version_ | 1797980647295287296 |
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| author | Hapiz Jasman Eman Lesmana Julita Nahar |
| author_facet | Hapiz Jasman Eman Lesmana Julita Nahar |
| author_sort | Hapiz Jasman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Purpose: The last few years the contribution of Indonesian pepper in the world market has decreased and has been replaced by Vietnam. If in 2000 and a few years before Indonesia became the world’s main pepper exporter, since 2001 the position has been replaced by Vietnam. In 2006 Indonesia’s position fell back to number three the world was replaced by Brazil which was ranked second. In 2006 Indonesian exports outperformed brazil and returned to rank second. Based on data from the Directorate General of Plantations in 2015, the area under pepper in Indonesia tends to decrease from 2004 to 2015 with an average reduction of area of 3064.5 hectares per year. Based on data from the Directorate General of Plantation in 2015, the area of pepper in Indonesia tends to decline from 2004-2015 with an average reduction of 3,064.5 hectares per year. The occurrence of the deduction according to the Ministry of Agriculture (2013), among others, is caused by: (a) drought; (b) Pest and disease attacks, especially stem rot and jaundice; and (c) conversion of pepper into mining or other plantation land, such as oil palm, rubber or cocoa.
Design/methodology/approach:. Methods used to predict the number of production and consumption of domestic and export of Indonesian pepper is Double exponential Smoothing Brown and the Smoothing exponential method of Holt-Winter.
Research limitations/implications: This Paper discusses the predictions of production and domestic consumption and the export of Indonesian pepper.
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| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T05:57:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fc246df4903f4043b80ccc2c56e94a34 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2597-4750 2597-4785 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T05:57:05Z |
| publishDate | 2021-04-01 |
| publisher | LPPM of Narotama University Surabaya |
| record_format | Article |
| series | IJEBD (International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Business Development) |
| spelling | doaj.art-fc246df4903f4043b80ccc2c56e94a342022-12-22T04:41:52ZengLPPM of Narotama University SurabayaIJEBD (International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Business Development)2597-47502597-47852021-04-014210.29138/ijebd.v4i2.1368Forecasting Of Production And Export Indonesian Pepper Commodities Using Smoothing Exponential And Holt Winter MethodsHapiz Jasman0Eman Lesmana1Julita Nahar2Prodi Matematika, Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Padjadjaran Jl. Raya Bandung Sumedang KM 21 Jatinangor SumedangProdi Matematika, Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Padjadjaran Jl. Raya Bandung Sumedang KM 21 Jatinangor SumedangProdi Matematika, Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Padjadjaran Jl. Raya Bandung Sumedang KM 21 Jatinangor Sumedang Purpose: The last few years the contribution of Indonesian pepper in the world market has decreased and has been replaced by Vietnam. If in 2000 and a few years before Indonesia became the world’s main pepper exporter, since 2001 the position has been replaced by Vietnam. In 2006 Indonesia’s position fell back to number three the world was replaced by Brazil which was ranked second. In 2006 Indonesian exports outperformed brazil and returned to rank second. Based on data from the Directorate General of Plantations in 2015, the area under pepper in Indonesia tends to decrease from 2004 to 2015 with an average reduction of area of 3064.5 hectares per year. Based on data from the Directorate General of Plantation in 2015, the area of pepper in Indonesia tends to decline from 2004-2015 with an average reduction of 3,064.5 hectares per year. The occurrence of the deduction according to the Ministry of Agriculture (2013), among others, is caused by: (a) drought; (b) Pest and disease attacks, especially stem rot and jaundice; and (c) conversion of pepper into mining or other plantation land, such as oil palm, rubber or cocoa. Design/methodology/approach:. Methods used to predict the number of production and consumption of domestic and export of Indonesian pepper is Double exponential Smoothing Brown and the Smoothing exponential method of Holt-Winter. Research limitations/implications: This Paper discusses the predictions of production and domestic consumption and the export of Indonesian pepper. https://jurnal.narotama.ac.id/index.php/ijebd/article/view/1368Brown Double Exponential Smoothing MethodForecastingHolt-Winter Method Indonesian PepperSmoothing Method |
| spellingShingle | Hapiz Jasman Eman Lesmana Julita Nahar Forecasting Of Production And Export Indonesian Pepper Commodities Using Smoothing Exponential And Holt Winter Methods IJEBD (International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Business Development) Brown Double Exponential Smoothing Method Forecasting Holt-Winter Method Indonesian Pepper Smoothing Method |
| title | Forecasting Of Production And Export Indonesian Pepper Commodities Using Smoothing Exponential And Holt Winter Methods |
| title_full | Forecasting Of Production And Export Indonesian Pepper Commodities Using Smoothing Exponential And Holt Winter Methods |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting Of Production And Export Indonesian Pepper Commodities Using Smoothing Exponential And Holt Winter Methods |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting Of Production And Export Indonesian Pepper Commodities Using Smoothing Exponential And Holt Winter Methods |
| title_short | Forecasting Of Production And Export Indonesian Pepper Commodities Using Smoothing Exponential And Holt Winter Methods |
| title_sort | forecasting of production and export indonesian pepper commodities using smoothing exponential and holt winter methods |
| topic | Brown Double Exponential Smoothing Method Forecasting Holt-Winter Method Indonesian Pepper Smoothing Method |
| url | https://jurnal.narotama.ac.id/index.php/ijebd/article/view/1368 |
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