Extreme sea level variability dominates coastal flood risk changes at decadal time scales
Coastal flood risk assessments typically ignore interannual to multidecadal variability stemming from mean sea level, storm surges, and long period tides (i.e. 4.4 year perigean and 18.6 year nodal cycles), although combined these can lead to significant variations in extreme sea levels (ESL). Here,...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd4aa |
| _version_ | 1797747900834381824 |
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| author | M M Rashid T Wahl D P Chambers |
| author_facet | M M Rashid T Wahl D P Chambers |
| author_sort | M M Rashid |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Coastal flood risk assessments typically ignore interannual to multidecadal variability stemming from mean sea level, storm surges, and long period tides (i.e. 4.4 year perigean and 18.6 year nodal cycles), although combined these can lead to significant variations in extreme sea levels (ESL). Here, we examine the effects of ESL variability on the amplification of flood frequencies and risks for 17 major U.S. coastal cities. We also quantify the relative importance of ESL variability compared to long-term relative sea level rise (RSLR). Results show that, depending on the region, observed ESL variability can lead to amplification factors of up to 79, indicating that the 100 year return period event can become a 1.26 year event during certain time periods when ESL variability peaks high. Additionally, depending on the RSLR scenario considered, the observed range of ESL variability is equivalent to the RSLR projected to occur over the next few years in some locations and several decades (up to 2100) in others. These ESL fluctuations also modulate flood risk estimates, with the aggregated 100 year flood losses for the 17 major U.S. coastal cities changing by up to US$ 141 979 million (or 28%). This study demonstrates the importance of including ESL variability in regional coastal flood risk assessments; it highlights the importance of being aware and vigilant of these variations when observed and projected ESL situations are quantified assuming that certain sea level components are stationary. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fc3d9a441d004765991746b03bca2a1e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:15Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-fc3d9a441d004765991746b03bca2a1e2023-08-09T14:52:13ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116202402610.1088/1748-9326/abd4aaExtreme sea level variability dominates coastal flood risk changes at decadal time scalesM M Rashid0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0315-9055T Wahl1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3643-5463D P Chambers2Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering and National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida , Orlando, FL 32816-2450, United States of AmericaCivil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering and National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida , Orlando, FL 32816-2450, United States of AmericaCollege of Marine Science, University of South Florida , St. Petersburg, FL, United States of AmericaCoastal flood risk assessments typically ignore interannual to multidecadal variability stemming from mean sea level, storm surges, and long period tides (i.e. 4.4 year perigean and 18.6 year nodal cycles), although combined these can lead to significant variations in extreme sea levels (ESL). Here, we examine the effects of ESL variability on the amplification of flood frequencies and risks for 17 major U.S. coastal cities. We also quantify the relative importance of ESL variability compared to long-term relative sea level rise (RSLR). Results show that, depending on the region, observed ESL variability can lead to amplification factors of up to 79, indicating that the 100 year return period event can become a 1.26 year event during certain time periods when ESL variability peaks high. Additionally, depending on the RSLR scenario considered, the observed range of ESL variability is equivalent to the RSLR projected to occur over the next few years in some locations and several decades (up to 2100) in others. These ESL fluctuations also modulate flood risk estimates, with the aggregated 100 year flood losses for the 17 major U.S. coastal cities changing by up to US$ 141 979 million (or 28%). This study demonstrates the importance of including ESL variability in regional coastal flood risk assessments; it highlights the importance of being aware and vigilant of these variations when observed and projected ESL situations are quantified assuming that certain sea level components are stationary.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd4aaextreme sea levelcoastal floodannual average lossesamplification factor |
| spellingShingle | M M Rashid T Wahl D P Chambers Extreme sea level variability dominates coastal flood risk changes at decadal time scales Environmental Research Letters extreme sea level coastal flood annual average losses amplification factor |
| title | Extreme sea level variability dominates coastal flood risk changes at decadal time scales |
| title_full | Extreme sea level variability dominates coastal flood risk changes at decadal time scales |
| title_fullStr | Extreme sea level variability dominates coastal flood risk changes at decadal time scales |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extreme sea level variability dominates coastal flood risk changes at decadal time scales |
| title_short | Extreme sea level variability dominates coastal flood risk changes at decadal time scales |
| title_sort | extreme sea level variability dominates coastal flood risk changes at decadal time scales |
| topic | extreme sea level coastal flood annual average losses amplification factor |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd4aa |
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