A novel rare event approach to measure the randomness and concentration of road accidents.
BACKGROUND:Road accidents are one of the main causes of death around the world and yet, from a time-space perspective, they are a rare event. To help us prevent accidents, a metric to determine the level of concentration of road accidents in a city could aid us to determine whether most of the accid...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2018-01-01
|
| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC6082563?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1818305663146655744 |
|---|---|
| author | Rafael Prieto Curiel Humberto González Ramírez Steven Richard Bishop |
| author_facet | Rafael Prieto Curiel Humberto González Ramírez Steven Richard Bishop |
| author_sort | Rafael Prieto Curiel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BACKGROUND:Road accidents are one of the main causes of death around the world and yet, from a time-space perspective, they are a rare event. To help us prevent accidents, a metric to determine the level of concentration of road accidents in a city could aid us to determine whether most of the accidents are constrained in a small number of places (hence, the environment plays a leading role) or whether accidents are dispersed over a city as a whole (hence, the driver has the biggest influence). METHODS:Here, we apply a new metric, the Rare Event Concentration Coefficient (RECC), to measure the concentration of road accidents based on a mixture model applied to the counts of road accidents over a discretised space. A test application of a tessellation of the space and mixture model is shown using two types of road accident data: an urban environment recorded in London between 2005 and 2014 and a motorway environment recorded in Mexico between 2015 and 2016. FINDINGS:In terms of their concentration, about 5% of the road junctions are the site of 50% of the accidents while around 80% of the road junctions expect close to zero accidents. Accidents which occur in regions with a high accident rate can be considered to have a strong component related to the environment and therefore changes, such as a road intervention or a change in the speed limit, might be introduced and their impact measured by changes to the RECC metric. This new procedure helps us identify regions with a high accident rate and determine whether the observed number of road accidents at a road junction has decreased over time and hence track structural changes in the road accident settings. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T06:30:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fc847348b71b49e2afeed0f4ad7d2737 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T06:30:10Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-fc847348b71b49e2afeed0f4ad7d27372022-12-21T23:56:38ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032018-01-01138e020189010.1371/journal.pone.0201890A novel rare event approach to measure the randomness and concentration of road accidents.Rafael Prieto CurielHumberto González RamírezSteven Richard BishopBACKGROUND:Road accidents are one of the main causes of death around the world and yet, from a time-space perspective, they are a rare event. To help us prevent accidents, a metric to determine the level of concentration of road accidents in a city could aid us to determine whether most of the accidents are constrained in a small number of places (hence, the environment plays a leading role) or whether accidents are dispersed over a city as a whole (hence, the driver has the biggest influence). METHODS:Here, we apply a new metric, the Rare Event Concentration Coefficient (RECC), to measure the concentration of road accidents based on a mixture model applied to the counts of road accidents over a discretised space. A test application of a tessellation of the space and mixture model is shown using two types of road accident data: an urban environment recorded in London between 2005 and 2014 and a motorway environment recorded in Mexico between 2015 and 2016. FINDINGS:In terms of their concentration, about 5% of the road junctions are the site of 50% of the accidents while around 80% of the road junctions expect close to zero accidents. Accidents which occur in regions with a high accident rate can be considered to have a strong component related to the environment and therefore changes, such as a road intervention or a change in the speed limit, might be introduced and their impact measured by changes to the RECC metric. This new procedure helps us identify regions with a high accident rate and determine whether the observed number of road accidents at a road junction has decreased over time and hence track structural changes in the road accident settings.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC6082563?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | Rafael Prieto Curiel Humberto González Ramírez Steven Richard Bishop A novel rare event approach to measure the randomness and concentration of road accidents. PLoS ONE |
| title | A novel rare event approach to measure the randomness and concentration of road accidents. |
| title_full | A novel rare event approach to measure the randomness and concentration of road accidents. |
| title_fullStr | A novel rare event approach to measure the randomness and concentration of road accidents. |
| title_full_unstemmed | A novel rare event approach to measure the randomness and concentration of road accidents. |
| title_short | A novel rare event approach to measure the randomness and concentration of road accidents. |
| title_sort | novel rare event approach to measure the randomness and concentration of road accidents |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC6082563?pdf=render |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rafaelprietocuriel anovelrareeventapproachtomeasuretherandomnessandconcentrationofroadaccidents AT humbertogonzalezramirez anovelrareeventapproachtomeasuretherandomnessandconcentrationofroadaccidents AT stevenrichardbishop anovelrareeventapproachtomeasuretherandomnessandconcentrationofroadaccidents AT rafaelprietocuriel novelrareeventapproachtomeasuretherandomnessandconcentrationofroadaccidents AT humbertogonzalezramirez novelrareeventapproachtomeasuretherandomnessandconcentrationofroadaccidents AT stevenrichardbishop novelrareeventapproachtomeasuretherandomnessandconcentrationofroadaccidents |