The environmental consequences of climate-driven agricultural frontiers.
Growing conditions for crops such as coffee and wine grapes are shifting to track climate change. Research on these crop responses has focused principally on impacts to food production impacts, but evidence is emerging that they may have serious environmental consequences as well. Recent research ha...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2020-01-01
|
| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0228305 |
| _version_ | 1830281802030252032 |
|---|---|
| author | Lee Hannah Patrick R Roehrdanz Krishna Bahadur K C Evan D G Fraser Camila I Donatti Leonardo Saenz Timothy Max Wright Robert J Hijmans Mark Mulligan Aaron Berg Arnout van Soesbergen |
| author_facet | Lee Hannah Patrick R Roehrdanz Krishna Bahadur K C Evan D G Fraser Camila I Donatti Leonardo Saenz Timothy Max Wright Robert J Hijmans Mark Mulligan Aaron Berg Arnout van Soesbergen |
| author_sort | Lee Hannah |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Growing conditions for crops such as coffee and wine grapes are shifting to track climate change. Research on these crop responses has focused principally on impacts to food production impacts, but evidence is emerging that they may have serious environmental consequences as well. Recent research has documented potential environmental impacts of shifting cropping patterns, including impacts on water, wildlife, pollinator interaction, carbon storage and nature conservation, on national to global scales. Multiple crops will be moving in response to shifting climatic suitability, and the cumulative environmental effects of these multi-crop shifts at global scales is not known. Here we model for the first time multiple major global commodity crop suitability changes due to climate change, to estimate the impacts of new crop suitability on water, biodiversity and carbon storage. Areas that become newly suitable for one or more crops are Climate-driven Agricultural Frontiers. These frontiers cover an area equivalent to over 30% of the current agricultural land on the planet and have major potential impacts on biodiversity in tropical mountains, on water resources downstream and on carbon storage in high latitude lands. Frontier soils contain up to 177 Gt of C, which might be subject to release, which is the equivalent of over a century of current United States CO2 emissions. Watersheds serving over 1.8 billion people would be impacted by the cultivation of the climate-driven frontiers. Frontiers intersect 19 global biodiversity hotspots and the habitat of 20% of all global restricted range birds. Sound planning and management of climate-driven agricultural frontiers can therefore help reduce globally significant impacts on people, ecosystems and the climate system. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T02:24:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fc98cb62d53b45e2849e1e0d207d043b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T02:24:57Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-fc98cb62d53b45e2849e1e0d207d043b2022-12-21T20:39:58ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032020-01-01152e022830510.1371/journal.pone.0228305The environmental consequences of climate-driven agricultural frontiers.Lee HannahPatrick R RoehrdanzKrishna Bahadur K CEvan D G FraserCamila I DonattiLeonardo SaenzTimothy Max WrightRobert J HijmansMark MulliganAaron BergArnout van SoesbergenGrowing conditions for crops such as coffee and wine grapes are shifting to track climate change. Research on these crop responses has focused principally on impacts to food production impacts, but evidence is emerging that they may have serious environmental consequences as well. Recent research has documented potential environmental impacts of shifting cropping patterns, including impacts on water, wildlife, pollinator interaction, carbon storage and nature conservation, on national to global scales. Multiple crops will be moving in response to shifting climatic suitability, and the cumulative environmental effects of these multi-crop shifts at global scales is not known. Here we model for the first time multiple major global commodity crop suitability changes due to climate change, to estimate the impacts of new crop suitability on water, biodiversity and carbon storage. Areas that become newly suitable for one or more crops are Climate-driven Agricultural Frontiers. These frontiers cover an area equivalent to over 30% of the current agricultural land on the planet and have major potential impacts on biodiversity in tropical mountains, on water resources downstream and on carbon storage in high latitude lands. Frontier soils contain up to 177 Gt of C, which might be subject to release, which is the equivalent of over a century of current United States CO2 emissions. Watersheds serving over 1.8 billion people would be impacted by the cultivation of the climate-driven frontiers. Frontiers intersect 19 global biodiversity hotspots and the habitat of 20% of all global restricted range birds. Sound planning and management of climate-driven agricultural frontiers can therefore help reduce globally significant impacts on people, ecosystems and the climate system.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0228305 |
| spellingShingle | Lee Hannah Patrick R Roehrdanz Krishna Bahadur K C Evan D G Fraser Camila I Donatti Leonardo Saenz Timothy Max Wright Robert J Hijmans Mark Mulligan Aaron Berg Arnout van Soesbergen The environmental consequences of climate-driven agricultural frontiers. PLoS ONE |
| title | The environmental consequences of climate-driven agricultural frontiers. |
| title_full | The environmental consequences of climate-driven agricultural frontiers. |
| title_fullStr | The environmental consequences of climate-driven agricultural frontiers. |
| title_full_unstemmed | The environmental consequences of climate-driven agricultural frontiers. |
| title_short | The environmental consequences of climate-driven agricultural frontiers. |
| title_sort | environmental consequences of climate driven agricultural frontiers |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0228305 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT leehannah theenvironmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT patrickrroehrdanz theenvironmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT krishnabahadurkc theenvironmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT evandgfraser theenvironmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT camilaidonatti theenvironmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT leonardosaenz theenvironmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT timothymaxwright theenvironmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT robertjhijmans theenvironmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT markmulligan theenvironmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT aaronberg theenvironmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT arnoutvansoesbergen theenvironmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT leehannah environmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT patrickrroehrdanz environmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT krishnabahadurkc environmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT evandgfraser environmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT camilaidonatti environmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT leonardosaenz environmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT timothymaxwright environmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT robertjhijmans environmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT markmulligan environmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT aaronberg environmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers AT arnoutvansoesbergen environmentalconsequencesofclimatedrivenagriculturalfrontiers |