Regional ecological forecasting across scales: A manifesto for a biodiversity hotspot
Abstract Iterative near‐term ecological forecasting has great promise to provide vital information to decision‐makers while improving our ecological understanding, yet several logistical and fundamental challenges remain. The ecoinformatics requirements are onerous to develop and maintain, posing a...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Methods in Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.14046 |
| _version_ | 1797767027089211392 |
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| author | Jasper A. Slingsby Adam M. Wilson Brian Maitner Glenn R. Moncrieff |
| author_facet | Jasper A. Slingsby Adam M. Wilson Brian Maitner Glenn R. Moncrieff |
| author_sort | Jasper A. Slingsby |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Iterative near‐term ecological forecasting has great promise to provide vital information to decision‐makers while improving our ecological understanding, yet several logistical and fundamental challenges remain. The ecoinformatics requirements are onerous to develop and maintain, posing a barrier to entry for regions where funding and expertise are limited, and there are fundamental challenges to developing forecasts that fulfil information needs spanning spatial, temporal and biological scales. Using the hyperdiverse Cape Floristic Region of South Africa as a case study, we propose that developing regionally focussed sets of ecological forecasts will help resolve logistical challenges faced by under‐resourced regions of the world, while comparison or coupling of models across scales will facilitate new fundamental insights. We review information needs and existing models for the region and explore how they could be developed into a set of linked iterative near‐term forecasts. Comparing or coupling ecological forecasts from different scales within the same domain has much potential to provide new insights for decision‐makers and ecologists alike. They allow us to quantitatively link processes in space and time, potentially revealing feedbacks, interconnections and emergent properties, while providing powerful tools for testing decision scenarios and identifying trade‐offs or unanticipated outcomes. While the development of multiple or combined ecological forecasts that span scales is not trivial, there are logistical gains to be made from developing shared ecoinformatics pipelines that feed multiple models. Even where useful forecasts do not yet exist, the pipelines can be of great value in their own right, delivering frequent and up‐to‐date information to decision‐makers while providing the basis for forecast development and other scientific research. Viewed together, regionally focussed approaches to ecological forecasting present a compelling opportunity to overcome logistical constraints and to integrate across multiple scales of organisation, ultimately improving our understanding and management of ecosystems. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T20:32:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fcc484bdaa444d23840b5a4261ddbd25 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-210X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T20:32:50Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Methods in Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-fcc484bdaa444d23840b5a4261ddbd252023-08-01T18:55:49ZengWileyMethods in Ecology and Evolution2041-210X2023-03-0114375777010.1111/2041-210X.14046Regional ecological forecasting across scales: A manifesto for a biodiversity hotspotJasper A. Slingsby0Adam M. Wilson1Brian Maitner2Glenn R. Moncrieff3Department of Biological Sciences and Centre for Statistics in Ecology, Environment and Conservation University of Cape Town Cape Town South AfricaDepartment of Geography, Department of Environment and Sustainability University at Buffalo Buffalo New York USADepartment of Geography, Department of Environment and Sustainability University at Buffalo Buffalo New York USAFynbos Node, South African Environmental Observation Network, Centre for Biodiversity Conservation Cape Town South AfricaAbstract Iterative near‐term ecological forecasting has great promise to provide vital information to decision‐makers while improving our ecological understanding, yet several logistical and fundamental challenges remain. The ecoinformatics requirements are onerous to develop and maintain, posing a barrier to entry for regions where funding and expertise are limited, and there are fundamental challenges to developing forecasts that fulfil information needs spanning spatial, temporal and biological scales. Using the hyperdiverse Cape Floristic Region of South Africa as a case study, we propose that developing regionally focussed sets of ecological forecasts will help resolve logistical challenges faced by under‐resourced regions of the world, while comparison or coupling of models across scales will facilitate new fundamental insights. We review information needs and existing models for the region and explore how they could be developed into a set of linked iterative near‐term forecasts. Comparing or coupling ecological forecasts from different scales within the same domain has much potential to provide new insights for decision‐makers and ecologists alike. They allow us to quantitatively link processes in space and time, potentially revealing feedbacks, interconnections and emergent properties, while providing powerful tools for testing decision scenarios and identifying trade‐offs or unanticipated outcomes. While the development of multiple or combined ecological forecasts that span scales is not trivial, there are logistical gains to be made from developing shared ecoinformatics pipelines that feed multiple models. Even where useful forecasts do not yet exist, the pipelines can be of great value in their own right, delivering frequent and up‐to‐date information to decision‐makers while providing the basis for forecast development and other scientific research. Viewed together, regionally focussed approaches to ecological forecasting present a compelling opportunity to overcome logistical constraints and to integrate across multiple scales of organisation, ultimately improving our understanding and management of ecosystems.https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.14046adaptive managementbiodiversitydemographyecological forecastingmonitoringremote sensing |
| spellingShingle | Jasper A. Slingsby Adam M. Wilson Brian Maitner Glenn R. Moncrieff Regional ecological forecasting across scales: A manifesto for a biodiversity hotspot Methods in Ecology and Evolution adaptive management biodiversity demography ecological forecasting monitoring remote sensing |
| title | Regional ecological forecasting across scales: A manifesto for a biodiversity hotspot |
| title_full | Regional ecological forecasting across scales: A manifesto for a biodiversity hotspot |
| title_fullStr | Regional ecological forecasting across scales: A manifesto for a biodiversity hotspot |
| title_full_unstemmed | Regional ecological forecasting across scales: A manifesto for a biodiversity hotspot |
| title_short | Regional ecological forecasting across scales: A manifesto for a biodiversity hotspot |
| title_sort | regional ecological forecasting across scales a manifesto for a biodiversity hotspot |
| topic | adaptive management biodiversity demography ecological forecasting monitoring remote sensing |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.14046 |
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