Identifying Potential Climatic Refugia to Protect Populations of Goitered Gazelle (Gazelle subgutturosa) in the Face of Climate Change (A case Study: Central Iran)
Currently, conservation planning based on the future distribution of species is among the most important adaptive conservation approaches to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on species. In this study, by adapting an ensemble modelling approach, scenarios of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 and five...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
| Published: |
Isfahan University of Technology
2019-09-01
|
| Series: | Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ijae.iut.ac.ir/article-1-936-en.html |
| _version_ | 1818146798152187904 |
|---|---|
| author | Sh. Malakoutikhah S. Fakheran M. R. Hemami M. Tarkesh J. Senn |
| author_facet | Sh. Malakoutikhah S. Fakheran M. R. Hemami M. Tarkesh J. Senn |
| author_sort | Sh. Malakoutikhah |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Currently, conservation planning based on the future distribution of species is among the most important adaptive conservation approaches to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on species. In this study, by adapting an ensemble modelling approach, scenarios of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 and five global circulation models, the distribution of Goitered gazelle (Gazellea subgutturosa) under climate change was predicted in the central Iran (Isfahan, Semnan, Markazi, Fars and Yazd provinces). In addition, by comparing the current and future distributions, suitable habitats that would remain so in the future with the potential to function as climatic refugia were identified. The results revealed that by 2070, Goitered gazelle will have lost 46% and 70% of its habitats based on RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Across central Iran, only proportions of habitats in Isfahan and Semnan at higher latitudes were predicted to function as the climatic refugia. Based on RCP 8.5, however, all refugia in Isfahan, except for those in Mooteh Wildlife Refuge, were projected to disappear. According to the findings of this study, expanding the protected network and increasing connectivity in the areas where refugia are distributed, and enhancing the protection status of key no-hunting areas and wildlife refugees are recommended as the management approaches for the effective conservation of this species against climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T12:25:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fcf6cef1ff284c719740c7cfa3e13b30 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2476-3128 2476-3217 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T12:25:04Z |
| publishDate | 2019-09-01 |
| publisher | Isfahan University of Technology |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology |
| spelling | doaj.art-fcf6cef1ff284c719740c7cfa3e13b302022-12-22T01:07:26ZfasIsfahan University of TechnologyIranian Journal of Applied Ecology2476-31282476-32172019-09-0182115Identifying Potential Climatic Refugia to Protect Populations of Goitered Gazelle (Gazelle subgutturosa) in the Face of Climate Change (A case Study: Central Iran)Sh. Malakoutikhah0S. Fakheran1M. R. Hemami2M. Tarkesh3J. Senn4 Isfahan university of technology Isfahan university of technology Isfahan university of technology Isfahan university of technology swiss institute Currently, conservation planning based on the future distribution of species is among the most important adaptive conservation approaches to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on species. In this study, by adapting an ensemble modelling approach, scenarios of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 and five global circulation models, the distribution of Goitered gazelle (Gazellea subgutturosa) under climate change was predicted in the central Iran (Isfahan, Semnan, Markazi, Fars and Yazd provinces). In addition, by comparing the current and future distributions, suitable habitats that would remain so in the future with the potential to function as climatic refugia were identified. The results revealed that by 2070, Goitered gazelle will have lost 46% and 70% of its habitats based on RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Across central Iran, only proportions of habitats in Isfahan and Semnan at higher latitudes were predicted to function as the climatic refugia. Based on RCP 8.5, however, all refugia in Isfahan, except for those in Mooteh Wildlife Refuge, were projected to disappear. According to the findings of this study, expanding the protected network and increasing connectivity in the areas where refugia are distributed, and enhancing the protection status of key no-hunting areas and wildlife refugees are recommended as the management approaches for the effective conservation of this species against climate change.http://ijae.iut.ac.ir/article-1-936-en.htmlVulnerable ungulatesEnsemble modelling approachProtected areasLandscape connectivityClimatic refugia |
| spellingShingle | Sh. Malakoutikhah S. Fakheran M. R. Hemami M. Tarkesh J. Senn Identifying Potential Climatic Refugia to Protect Populations of Goitered Gazelle (Gazelle subgutturosa) in the Face of Climate Change (A case Study: Central Iran) Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology Vulnerable ungulates Ensemble modelling approach Protected areas Landscape connectivity Climatic refugia |
| title | Identifying Potential Climatic Refugia to Protect Populations of Goitered Gazelle (Gazelle subgutturosa) in the Face of Climate Change (A case Study: Central Iran) |
| title_full | Identifying Potential Climatic Refugia to Protect Populations of Goitered Gazelle (Gazelle subgutturosa) in the Face of Climate Change (A case Study: Central Iran) |
| title_fullStr | Identifying Potential Climatic Refugia to Protect Populations of Goitered Gazelle (Gazelle subgutturosa) in the Face of Climate Change (A case Study: Central Iran) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identifying Potential Climatic Refugia to Protect Populations of Goitered Gazelle (Gazelle subgutturosa) in the Face of Climate Change (A case Study: Central Iran) |
| title_short | Identifying Potential Climatic Refugia to Protect Populations of Goitered Gazelle (Gazelle subgutturosa) in the Face of Climate Change (A case Study: Central Iran) |
| title_sort | identifying potential climatic refugia to protect populations of goitered gazelle gazelle subgutturosa in the face of climate change a case study central iran |
| topic | Vulnerable ungulates Ensemble modelling approach Protected areas Landscape connectivity Climatic refugia |
| url | http://ijae.iut.ac.ir/article-1-936-en.html |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT shmalakoutikhah identifyingpotentialclimaticrefugiatoprotectpopulationsofgoiteredgazellegazellesubgutturosainthefaceofclimatechangeacasestudycentraliran AT sfakheran identifyingpotentialclimaticrefugiatoprotectpopulationsofgoiteredgazellegazellesubgutturosainthefaceofclimatechangeacasestudycentraliran AT mrhemami identifyingpotentialclimaticrefugiatoprotectpopulationsofgoiteredgazellegazellesubgutturosainthefaceofclimatechangeacasestudycentraliran AT mtarkesh identifyingpotentialclimaticrefugiatoprotectpopulationsofgoiteredgazellegazellesubgutturosainthefaceofclimatechangeacasestudycentraliran AT jsenn identifyingpotentialclimaticrefugiatoprotectpopulationsofgoiteredgazellegazellesubgutturosainthefaceofclimatechangeacasestudycentraliran |