Unraveling fundamental properties of power system resilience curves using unsupervised machine learning
Power system is vital to modern societies, while it is susceptible to hazard events. Thus, analyzing resilience characteristics of power system is important. The standard model of infrastructure resilience, the resilience triangle, has been the primary way of characterizing and quantifying resilienc...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-05-01
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| Series: | Energy and AI |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266654682400017X |
| _version_ | 1797295778571485184 |
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| author | Bo Li Ali Mostafavi |
| author_facet | Bo Li Ali Mostafavi |
| author_sort | Bo Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Power system is vital to modern societies, while it is susceptible to hazard events. Thus, analyzing resilience characteristics of power system is important. The standard model of infrastructure resilience, the resilience triangle, has been the primary way of characterizing and quantifying resilience in infrastructure systems for more than two decades. However, the theoretical model provides a one-size-fits-all framework for all infrastructure systems and specifies general characteristics of resilience curves (e.g., residual performance and duration of recovery). Little empirical work has been done to delineate infrastructure resilience curve archetypes and their fundamental properties based on observational data. Most of the existing studies examine the characteristics of infrastructure resilience curves based on analytical models constructed upon simulated system performance. There is a dire dearth of empirical studies in the field, which hindered our ability to fully understand and predict resilience characteristics in infrastructure systems. To address this gap, this study examined more than two hundred power-grid resilience curves related to power outages in three major extreme weather events in the United States. Through the use of unsupervised machine learning, we examined different curve archetypes, as well as the fundamental properties of each resilience curve archetype. The results show two primary archetypes for power grid resilience curves, triangular curves, and trapezoidal curves. Triangular curves characterize resilience behavior based on three fundamental properties: 1. critical functionality threshold, 2. critical functionality recovery rate, and 3. recovery pivot point. Trapezoidal archetypes explain resilience curves based on 1. duration of sustained function loss and 2. constant recovery rate. The longer the duration of sustained function loss, the slower the constant rate of recovery. The findings of this study provide novel perspectives enabling better understanding and prediction of resilience performance of power system infrastructure in extreme weather events. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T21:52:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fd02a1d85d964f429c11f08b0a928c26 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-5468 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T21:52:53Z |
| publishDate | 2024-05-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy and AI |
| spelling | doaj.art-fd02a1d85d964f429c11f08b0a928c262024-02-25T04:36:30ZengElsevierEnergy and AI2666-54682024-05-0116100351Unraveling fundamental properties of power system resilience curves using unsupervised machine learningBo Li0Ali Mostafavi1Corresponding author.; Urban Resilience. AI Lab, Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, 3136 TAMU College Station, TX, 77843-3136, USAUrban Resilience. AI Lab, Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, 3136 TAMU College Station, TX, 77843-3136, USAPower system is vital to modern societies, while it is susceptible to hazard events. Thus, analyzing resilience characteristics of power system is important. The standard model of infrastructure resilience, the resilience triangle, has been the primary way of characterizing and quantifying resilience in infrastructure systems for more than two decades. However, the theoretical model provides a one-size-fits-all framework for all infrastructure systems and specifies general characteristics of resilience curves (e.g., residual performance and duration of recovery). Little empirical work has been done to delineate infrastructure resilience curve archetypes and their fundamental properties based on observational data. Most of the existing studies examine the characteristics of infrastructure resilience curves based on analytical models constructed upon simulated system performance. There is a dire dearth of empirical studies in the field, which hindered our ability to fully understand and predict resilience characteristics in infrastructure systems. To address this gap, this study examined more than two hundred power-grid resilience curves related to power outages in three major extreme weather events in the United States. Through the use of unsupervised machine learning, we examined different curve archetypes, as well as the fundamental properties of each resilience curve archetype. The results show two primary archetypes for power grid resilience curves, triangular curves, and trapezoidal curves. Triangular curves characterize resilience behavior based on three fundamental properties: 1. critical functionality threshold, 2. critical functionality recovery rate, and 3. recovery pivot point. Trapezoidal archetypes explain resilience curves based on 1. duration of sustained function loss and 2. constant recovery rate. The longer the duration of sustained function loss, the slower the constant rate of recovery. The findings of this study provide novel perspectives enabling better understanding and prediction of resilience performance of power system infrastructure in extreme weather events.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266654682400017XPower systemInfrastructure resilienceUnsupervised learningTime-series clusteringResilience curve |
| spellingShingle | Bo Li Ali Mostafavi Unraveling fundamental properties of power system resilience curves using unsupervised machine learning Energy and AI Power system Infrastructure resilience Unsupervised learning Time-series clustering Resilience curve |
| title | Unraveling fundamental properties of power system resilience curves using unsupervised machine learning |
| title_full | Unraveling fundamental properties of power system resilience curves using unsupervised machine learning |
| title_fullStr | Unraveling fundamental properties of power system resilience curves using unsupervised machine learning |
| title_full_unstemmed | Unraveling fundamental properties of power system resilience curves using unsupervised machine learning |
| title_short | Unraveling fundamental properties of power system resilience curves using unsupervised machine learning |
| title_sort | unraveling fundamental properties of power system resilience curves using unsupervised machine learning |
| topic | Power system Infrastructure resilience Unsupervised learning Time-series clustering Resilience curve |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266654682400017X |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT boli unravelingfundamentalpropertiesofpowersystemresiliencecurvesusingunsupervisedmachinelearning AT alimostafavi unravelingfundamentalpropertiesofpowersystemresiliencecurvesusingunsupervisedmachinelearning |