A comparison between ensemble and deterministic hydrological forecasts in an operational context
Ensemble forecasts can greatly benefit water resources management as they provide useful information regarding the uncertainty of the situation at hand. However, weather forecasting systems are evolving and the cost for reanalysis and reforecasts is prohibitive. Consequently, series of ensemble weat...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2011-03-01
|
| Series: | Advances in Geosciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.adv-geosci.net/29/85/2011/adgeo-29-85-2011.pdf |
| Summary: | Ensemble forecasts can greatly benefit water resources management as they
provide useful information regarding the uncertainty of the situation at
hand. However, weather forecasting systems are evolving and the cost for
reanalysis and reforecasts is prohibitive. Consequently, series of ensemble
weather forecasts from a particular version of the forecasting system are
often short. In this case study, we consider a hydrological event that took
place in 2003 on the Gatineau watershed in Canada and caused management
difficulties in a hydropower production context. The weather ensemble
forecasting system in place at that time is now obsolete, but we show that
with minimal post-processing of the forecasts, it is still beneficial to
exploit ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts, even if the latter
emerge from a more advanced meteorological model and possess superior
spatial resolution. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 1680-7340 1680-7359 |