Beyond Predicting the Number of Infections: Predicting Who is Likely to Be COVID Negative or Positive
Stephen X Zhang,1 Shuhua Sun,2 Asghar Afshar Jahanshahi,3 Yifei Wang,4 Abbas Nazarian Madavani,5 Jizhen Li,6 Maryam Mokhtari Dinani7 1Faculty of the Professions, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 2A. B. Freeman School of Business, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA; 3CENTRUM Cat&...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Dove Medical Press
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Risk Management and Healthcare Policy |
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| Online Access: | https://www.dovepress.com/beyond-predicting-the-number-of-infections-predicting-who-is-likely-to-peer-reviewed-article-RMHP |
| _version_ | 1818446391763009536 |
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| author | Zhang SX Sun S Afshar Jahanshahi A Wang Y Nazarian Madavani A Li J Mokhtari Dinani M |
| author_facet | Zhang SX Sun S Afshar Jahanshahi A Wang Y Nazarian Madavani A Li J Mokhtari Dinani M |
| author_sort | Zhang SX |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Stephen X Zhang,1 Shuhua Sun,2 Asghar Afshar Jahanshahi,3 Yifei Wang,4 Abbas Nazarian Madavani,5 Jizhen Li,6 Maryam Mokhtari Dinani7 1Faculty of the Professions, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 2A. B. Freeman School of Business, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA; 3CENTRUM Católica Graduate Business School (CCGBS), Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP), Lima, Peru; 4School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 5Faculty of Sport Sciences, Shahid Rajaee Teacher Training University, Tehran, Iran; 6School of Economics & Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; 7Faculty of Sport Sciences, Alzahra University, Tehran, IranCorrespondence: Stephen X ZhangFaculty of the Professions, University of Adelaide, 9-28 Nexus 10 Tower, 10 Pulteney St, Adelaide, SA 5000, AustraliaTel +61 8 8313 9310Fax +61 8 8223 4782Email stephen.x.zhang@gmail.comBackground: This study aims to identify individuals’ likelihood of being COVID negative or positive, enabling more targeted infectious disease prevention and control when there is a shortage of COVID-19 testing kits.Methods: We conducted a primary survey of 521 adults on April 1– 10, 2020 in Iran, where 3% reported being COVID-19 positive and 15% were unsure whether they were infected. This relatively high positive rate enabled us to conduct the analysis at the 5% significance level.Results: Adults who exercised more were more likely to be COVID-19 negative. Each additional hour of exercise per day predicted a 78% increase in the likelihood of being COVID-19 negative. Adults with chronic health issues were 48% more likely to be COVID-19 negative. Those working from home were the most likely to be COVID-19 negative, and those who had stopped working due to the pandemic were the most likely to be COVID-19 positive. Adults employed in larger organizations were less likely to be COVID-19 positive.Conclusion: This study enables more targeted infectious disease prevention and control by identifying the risk factors of COVID-19 infections from a set of readily accessible information. We hope this research opens a new research avenue to predict the individual likelihood of COVID-19 infection by risk factors.Keywords: individual infection prediction, COVID-19 infection, testing shortage, risk factors |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T19:46:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fd695da12ce64e33b476b84784e8597a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1179-1594 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T19:46:59Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | Dove Medical Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Risk Management and Healthcare Policy |
| spelling | doaj.art-fd695da12ce64e33b476b84784e8597a2022-12-21T22:49:33ZengDove Medical PressRisk Management and Healthcare Policy1179-15942020-12-01Volume 132811281859947Beyond Predicting the Number of Infections: Predicting Who is Likely to Be COVID Negative or PositiveZhang SXSun SAfshar Jahanshahi AWang YNazarian Madavani ALi JMokhtari Dinani MStephen X Zhang,1 Shuhua Sun,2 Asghar Afshar Jahanshahi,3 Yifei Wang,4 Abbas Nazarian Madavani,5 Jizhen Li,6 Maryam Mokhtari Dinani7 1Faculty of the Professions, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 2A. B. Freeman School of Business, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA; 3CENTRUM Católica Graduate Business School (CCGBS), Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP), Lima, Peru; 4School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 5Faculty of Sport Sciences, Shahid Rajaee Teacher Training University, Tehran, Iran; 6School of Economics & Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; 7Faculty of Sport Sciences, Alzahra University, Tehran, IranCorrespondence: Stephen X ZhangFaculty of the Professions, University of Adelaide, 9-28 Nexus 10 Tower, 10 Pulteney St, Adelaide, SA 5000, AustraliaTel +61 8 8313 9310Fax +61 8 8223 4782Email stephen.x.zhang@gmail.comBackground: This study aims to identify individuals’ likelihood of being COVID negative or positive, enabling more targeted infectious disease prevention and control when there is a shortage of COVID-19 testing kits.Methods: We conducted a primary survey of 521 adults on April 1– 10, 2020 in Iran, where 3% reported being COVID-19 positive and 15% were unsure whether they were infected. This relatively high positive rate enabled us to conduct the analysis at the 5% significance level.Results: Adults who exercised more were more likely to be COVID-19 negative. Each additional hour of exercise per day predicted a 78% increase in the likelihood of being COVID-19 negative. Adults with chronic health issues were 48% more likely to be COVID-19 negative. Those working from home were the most likely to be COVID-19 negative, and those who had stopped working due to the pandemic were the most likely to be COVID-19 positive. Adults employed in larger organizations were less likely to be COVID-19 positive.Conclusion: This study enables more targeted infectious disease prevention and control by identifying the risk factors of COVID-19 infections from a set of readily accessible information. We hope this research opens a new research avenue to predict the individual likelihood of COVID-19 infection by risk factors.Keywords: individual infection prediction, COVID-19 infection, testing shortage, risk factorshttps://www.dovepress.com/beyond-predicting-the-number-of-infections-predicting-who-is-likely-to-peer-reviewed-article-RMHPindividual infection predictioncovid-19 infectiontesting shortagerisk factors |
| spellingShingle | Zhang SX Sun S Afshar Jahanshahi A Wang Y Nazarian Madavani A Li J Mokhtari Dinani M Beyond Predicting the Number of Infections: Predicting Who is Likely to Be COVID Negative or Positive Risk Management and Healthcare Policy individual infection prediction covid-19 infection testing shortage risk factors |
| title | Beyond Predicting the Number of Infections: Predicting Who is Likely to Be COVID Negative or Positive |
| title_full | Beyond Predicting the Number of Infections: Predicting Who is Likely to Be COVID Negative or Positive |
| title_fullStr | Beyond Predicting the Number of Infections: Predicting Who is Likely to Be COVID Negative or Positive |
| title_full_unstemmed | Beyond Predicting the Number of Infections: Predicting Who is Likely to Be COVID Negative or Positive |
| title_short | Beyond Predicting the Number of Infections: Predicting Who is Likely to Be COVID Negative or Positive |
| title_sort | beyond predicting the number of infections predicting who is likely to be covid negative or positive |
| topic | individual infection prediction covid-19 infection testing shortage risk factors |
| url | https://www.dovepress.com/beyond-predicting-the-number-of-infections-predicting-who-is-likely-to-peer-reviewed-article-RMHP |
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