Three Gorges Dam: Potential differential drivers and trend in the spatio-temporal evolution of the change in snail density based on a Bayesian spatial–temporal model and 5-year longitudinal study
Abstract Background Snail abundance varies spatially and temporally. Few studies have elucidated the different effects of the determinants affecting snail density between upstream and downstream areas of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). We therefore investigated the differential drivers of changes in sna...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Parasites & Vectors |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-023-05846-6 |
| _version_ | 1797779089932681216 |
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| author | Yanfeng Gong Yixin Tong Honglin Jiang Ning Xu Jiangfan Yin Jiamin Wang Junhui Huang Yue Chen Qingwu Jiang Shizhu Li Yibiao Zhou |
| author_facet | Yanfeng Gong Yixin Tong Honglin Jiang Ning Xu Jiangfan Yin Jiamin Wang Junhui Huang Yue Chen Qingwu Jiang Shizhu Li Yibiao Zhou |
| author_sort | Yanfeng Gong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Snail abundance varies spatially and temporally. Few studies have elucidated the different effects of the determinants affecting snail density between upstream and downstream areas of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). We therefore investigated the differential drivers of changes in snail density in these areas, as well as the spatial–temporal effects of these changes. Methods A snail survey was conducted at 200 sites over a 5-year period to monitor dynamic changes in snail abundance within the Yangtze River basin. Data on corresponding variables that might affect snail abundance, such as meteorology, vegetation, terrain and economy, were collected from multiple data sources. A Bayesian spatial–temporal modeling framework was constructed to explore the differential determinants driving the change in snail density and the spatial–temporal effects of the change. Results Volatility in snail density was unambiguously detected in the downstream area of the TGD, while a small increment in volatility was detected in the upstream area. Regarding the downstream area of the TGD, snail density was positively associated with the average minimum temperature in January of the same year, the annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of the previous year and the second, third and fourth quartile, respectively, of average annual relative humidity of the previous year. Snail density was negatively associated with the average maximum temperature in July of the previous year and annual nighttime light of the previous year. An approximately inverted “U” curve of relative risk was detected among sites with a greater average annual ground surface temperature in the previous year. Regarding the upstream area, snail density was positively associated with NDVI and with the second, third and fourth quartile, respectively, of total precipitation of the previous year. Snail density was negatively associated with slope. Conclusions This study demonstrated a rebound in snail density between 2015 and 2019. In particular, temperature, humidity, vegetation and human activity were the main drivers affecting snail abundance in the downstream area of the TGD, while precipitation, slope and vegetation were the main drivers affecting snail abundance in the upstream area. These findings can assist authorities to develop and perform more precise strategies for surveys and control of snail populations. Graphical Abstract |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:25:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fd94b567314f41598f1ec2d578db0cae |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1756-3305 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:25:46Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Parasites & Vectors |
| spelling | doaj.art-fd94b567314f41598f1ec2d578db0cae2023-07-16T11:10:53ZengBMCParasites & Vectors1756-33052023-07-0116111210.1186/s13071-023-05846-6Three Gorges Dam: Potential differential drivers and trend in the spatio-temporal evolution of the change in snail density based on a Bayesian spatial–temporal model and 5-year longitudinal studyYanfeng Gong0Yixin Tong1Honglin Jiang2Ning Xu3Jiangfan Yin4Jiamin Wang5Junhui Huang6Yue Chen7Qingwu Jiang8Shizhu Li9Yibiao Zhou10Fudan University School of Public HealthFudan University School of Public HealthFudan University School of Public HealthFudan University School of Public HealthFudan University School of Public HealthFudan University School of Public HealthFudan University School of Public HealthSchool of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of OttawaFudan University School of Public HealthChinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases ResearchFudan University School of Public HealthAbstract Background Snail abundance varies spatially and temporally. Few studies have elucidated the different effects of the determinants affecting snail density between upstream and downstream areas of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). We therefore investigated the differential drivers of changes in snail density in these areas, as well as the spatial–temporal effects of these changes. Methods A snail survey was conducted at 200 sites over a 5-year period to monitor dynamic changes in snail abundance within the Yangtze River basin. Data on corresponding variables that might affect snail abundance, such as meteorology, vegetation, terrain and economy, were collected from multiple data sources. A Bayesian spatial–temporal modeling framework was constructed to explore the differential determinants driving the change in snail density and the spatial–temporal effects of the change. Results Volatility in snail density was unambiguously detected in the downstream area of the TGD, while a small increment in volatility was detected in the upstream area. Regarding the downstream area of the TGD, snail density was positively associated with the average minimum temperature in January of the same year, the annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of the previous year and the second, third and fourth quartile, respectively, of average annual relative humidity of the previous year. Snail density was negatively associated with the average maximum temperature in July of the previous year and annual nighttime light of the previous year. An approximately inverted “U” curve of relative risk was detected among sites with a greater average annual ground surface temperature in the previous year. Regarding the upstream area, snail density was positively associated with NDVI and with the second, third and fourth quartile, respectively, of total precipitation of the previous year. Snail density was negatively associated with slope. Conclusions This study demonstrated a rebound in snail density between 2015 and 2019. In particular, temperature, humidity, vegetation and human activity were the main drivers affecting snail abundance in the downstream area of the TGD, while precipitation, slope and vegetation were the main drivers affecting snail abundance in the upstream area. These findings can assist authorities to develop and perform more precise strategies for surveys and control of snail populations. Graphical Abstracthttps://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-023-05846-6Three Gorges DamSnail abundanceSpatial–temporal effectsOncomelania hupensis snail |
| spellingShingle | Yanfeng Gong Yixin Tong Honglin Jiang Ning Xu Jiangfan Yin Jiamin Wang Junhui Huang Yue Chen Qingwu Jiang Shizhu Li Yibiao Zhou Three Gorges Dam: Potential differential drivers and trend in the spatio-temporal evolution of the change in snail density based on a Bayesian spatial–temporal model and 5-year longitudinal study Parasites & Vectors Three Gorges Dam Snail abundance Spatial–temporal effects Oncomelania hupensis snail |
| title | Three Gorges Dam: Potential differential drivers and trend in the spatio-temporal evolution of the change in snail density based on a Bayesian spatial–temporal model and 5-year longitudinal study |
| title_full | Three Gorges Dam: Potential differential drivers and trend in the spatio-temporal evolution of the change in snail density based on a Bayesian spatial–temporal model and 5-year longitudinal study |
| title_fullStr | Three Gorges Dam: Potential differential drivers and trend in the spatio-temporal evolution of the change in snail density based on a Bayesian spatial–temporal model and 5-year longitudinal study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Three Gorges Dam: Potential differential drivers and trend in the spatio-temporal evolution of the change in snail density based on a Bayesian spatial–temporal model and 5-year longitudinal study |
| title_short | Three Gorges Dam: Potential differential drivers and trend in the spatio-temporal evolution of the change in snail density based on a Bayesian spatial–temporal model and 5-year longitudinal study |
| title_sort | three gorges dam potential differential drivers and trend in the spatio temporal evolution of the change in snail density based on a bayesian spatial temporal model and 5 year longitudinal study |
| topic | Three Gorges Dam Snail abundance Spatial–temporal effects Oncomelania hupensis snail |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-023-05846-6 |
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