Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission
Summary: Superspreaders are recognized as being important drivers of disease spread. However, models to date have assumed random occurrence of superspreaders, irrespective of whom they were infected by. Evidence suggests though that those individuals infected by superspreaders may be more likely to...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-05-01
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| Series: | iScience |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004223006958 |
| _version_ | 1797842480615391232 |
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| author | Klara M. Wanelik Mike Begon Andy Fenton Rachel A. Norman Pablo M. Beldomenico |
| author_facet | Klara M. Wanelik Mike Begon Andy Fenton Rachel A. Norman Pablo M. Beldomenico |
| author_sort | Klara M. Wanelik |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Superspreaders are recognized as being important drivers of disease spread. However, models to date have assumed random occurrence of superspreaders, irrespective of whom they were infected by. Evidence suggests though that those individuals infected by superspreaders may be more likely to become superspreaders themselves. Here, we begin to explore, theoretically, the effects of such a positive feedback loop on (1) the final epidemic size, (2) the herd immunity threshold, (3) the basic reproduction number, R0, and (4) the peak prevalence of superspreaders, using a generic model (for a hypothetical acute viral infection) and illustrative parameter values. We show that positive feedback loops can have a profound effect on our chosen epidemic outcomes, even when the transmission advantage of superspreaders is moderate, and despite peak prevalence of superspreaders remaining low. We argue that positive superspreader feedback loops in different infectious diseases, including SARS-CoV-2, should be investigated further, both theoretically and empirically. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T16:48:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fe1e29e9b89c4cb4bf39373ede605d01 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2589-0042 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T16:48:36Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | iScience |
| spelling | doaj.art-fe1e29e9b89c4cb4bf39373ede605d012023-04-22T06:22:19ZengElsevieriScience2589-00422023-05-01265106618Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmissionKlara M. Wanelik0Mike Begon1Andy Fenton2Rachel A. Norman3Pablo M. Beldomenico4Department of Evolution, Ecology and Behaviour, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK; Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Corresponding authorDepartment of Evolution, Ecology and Behaviour, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UKDepartment of Evolution, Ecology and Behaviour, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UKDepartment of Computing Science and Mathematics, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, UKLaboratorio de Ecología de Enfermedades, Instituto de Ciencias Veterinarias del Litoral (Consejo de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas - Universidad Nacional del Litoral), Esperanza, ArgentinaSummary: Superspreaders are recognized as being important drivers of disease spread. However, models to date have assumed random occurrence of superspreaders, irrespective of whom they were infected by. Evidence suggests though that those individuals infected by superspreaders may be more likely to become superspreaders themselves. Here, we begin to explore, theoretically, the effects of such a positive feedback loop on (1) the final epidemic size, (2) the herd immunity threshold, (3) the basic reproduction number, R0, and (4) the peak prevalence of superspreaders, using a generic model (for a hypothetical acute viral infection) and illustrative parameter values. We show that positive feedback loops can have a profound effect on our chosen epidemic outcomes, even when the transmission advantage of superspreaders is moderate, and despite peak prevalence of superspreaders remaining low. We argue that positive superspreader feedback loops in different infectious diseases, including SARS-CoV-2, should be investigated further, both theoretically and empirically.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004223006958Health sciencesMedicineVirology |
| spellingShingle | Klara M. Wanelik Mike Begon Andy Fenton Rachel A. Norman Pablo M. Beldomenico Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission iScience Health sciences Medicine Virology |
| title | Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission |
| title_full | Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission |
| title_fullStr | Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission |
| title_full_unstemmed | Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission |
| title_short | Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission |
| title_sort | positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission |
| topic | Health sciences Medicine Virology |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004223006958 |
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