Integrate Risk From Climate Change in China Under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C.
Abstract. Risk of climate‐related impacts results from the interaction of climate‐related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems. Despite the commitment of the Paris Agreement, the integrate research on climate change risk com...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2019-12-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001194 |
| _version_ | 1818011386437959680 |
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| author | Shaohong Wu Lulu Liu Jiangbo Gao Wentao Wang |
| author_facet | Shaohong Wu Lulu Liu Jiangbo Gao Wentao Wang |
| author_sort | Shaohong Wu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract. Risk of climate‐related impacts results from the interaction of climate‐related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems. Despite the commitment of the Paris Agreement, the integrate research on climate change risk combining risk‐causing factors and risk‐bearing bodies, the regional differences in climate impacts are still missing. In this paper we provide a quantitative assessment of hazards and socioeconomic risks of extreme events, risks of risk‐bearing bodies in China under global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C based on future climate scenarios, and quantitative evaluation theory for climate change risk. For severe heat waves, hazards might significantly intensify. Affected population under 2.0 °C warming might increase by more than 60% compared to that of 1.5 °C. Hazards of severe droughts and floods might strengthen under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Economic losses might double between warming levels of 1.5 and 2.0 °C, and the population affected by severe floods might continuously increase. Under the integrate effects of multiple disasters, the regions with high population and economic risks would be concentrated in eastern China. The scope would gradually expand to the west with socioeconomic development and intensification of extreme events. High ecological risks might be concentrated in the southern regions of the Yangtze River Basin, while the ecological risk in northern China would expand. High agriculture yield risks might be distributed mainly in south of the North China Plain, the Sichuan Basin, south of the Yangtze River, and west of Northwest China, and the risk levels might continuously increase. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T06:08:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fe444896d59b4a538f8f488581c4136d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T06:08:05Z |
| publishDate | 2019-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-fe444896d59b4a538f8f488581c4136d2022-12-22T02:08:29ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772019-12-017121307132210.1029/2019EF001194Integrate Risk From Climate Change in China Under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C.Shaohong Wu0Lulu Liu1Jiangbo Gao2Wentao Wang3Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaThe Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21 Ministry of Science and Technology Beijing ChinaAbstract. Risk of climate‐related impacts results from the interaction of climate‐related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems. Despite the commitment of the Paris Agreement, the integrate research on climate change risk combining risk‐causing factors and risk‐bearing bodies, the regional differences in climate impacts are still missing. In this paper we provide a quantitative assessment of hazards and socioeconomic risks of extreme events, risks of risk‐bearing bodies in China under global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C based on future climate scenarios, and quantitative evaluation theory for climate change risk. For severe heat waves, hazards might significantly intensify. Affected population under 2.0 °C warming might increase by more than 60% compared to that of 1.5 °C. Hazards of severe droughts and floods might strengthen under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Economic losses might double between warming levels of 1.5 and 2.0 °C, and the population affected by severe floods might continuously increase. Under the integrate effects of multiple disasters, the regions with high population and economic risks would be concentrated in eastern China. The scope would gradually expand to the west with socioeconomic development and intensification of extreme events. High ecological risks might be concentrated in the southern regions of the Yangtze River Basin, while the ecological risk in northern China would expand. High agriculture yield risks might be distributed mainly in south of the North China Plain, the Sichuan Basin, south of the Yangtze River, and west of Northwest China, and the risk levels might continuously increase.https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001194global warmingclimate changeintegrate riskextreme eventsvulnerability |
| spellingShingle | Shaohong Wu Lulu Liu Jiangbo Gao Wentao Wang Integrate Risk From Climate Change in China Under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C. Earth's Future global warming climate change integrate risk extreme events vulnerability |
| title | Integrate Risk From Climate Change in China Under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C. |
| title_full | Integrate Risk From Climate Change in China Under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C. |
| title_fullStr | Integrate Risk From Climate Change in China Under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Integrate Risk From Climate Change in China Under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C. |
| title_short | Integrate Risk From Climate Change in China Under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C. |
| title_sort | integrate risk from climate change in china under global warming of 1 5 and 2 0 °c |
| topic | global warming climate change integrate risk extreme events vulnerability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001194 |
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