Environmental spaces for palsas and peat plateaus are disappearing at a circumpolar scale
<p>Anthropogenic climate change threatens northern permafrost environments. This compromises the existence of permafrost landforms, such as palsas and peat plateaus, which have been assessed to be critically endangered habitats. In this study, we integrated geospatial datasets and statistical...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023-08-01
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| Series: | The Cryosphere |
| Online Access: | https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/3157/2023/tc-17-3157-2023.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>Anthropogenic climate change threatens northern
permafrost environments. This compromises the existence of permafrost
landforms, such as palsas and peat plateaus, which have been assessed to be
critically endangered habitats. In this study, we integrated geospatial
datasets and statistical methods to model the suitable environments for
palsas and peat plateaus across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region.
The models were calibrated using data from years 1950–2000. The effects of
climate change on the suitable environments for the landforms were assessed
by using low-, moderate-, and high-emissions scenarios (Representative
Concentration Pathway climate scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5,
respectively) for two periods (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Hotspots for
palsa and peat plateau environments occurred in northern Europe, western
Siberia, and subarctic Canada. Climate change was predicted to cause an
almost complete loss (decrease of 98.2 %) of suitable environmental
spaces under the high-emissions scenario by 2061–2080, while under low- and
moderate-emissions scenarios the predicted loss was 76.3 % and 89.3 %
respectively. Our modeling results are in line with previously published
thermokarst data pointing out areas of recent degradation of palsa and peat
plateau environments. Our results provide new insights into the distribution
of the permafrost landforms in less studied areas such as central and
eastern Siberia. In addition, the predictions provide new understanding of
the changing geoecological conditions of the circumpolar region with
important implications for greenhouse gas emissions.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1994-0416 1994-0424 |