Prediction of electricity consumption demand pattern for 2018 in Ogun State, Nigeria
This study uses probabilistic load forecast technique to predict the load demand pattern in Ogun State for year 2018. Energy consumption data for Ogun State for year 2016 and 2017 was obtained from the regional headquarter of the Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company (IBEDC), Abeokuta. The result...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Joint Coordination Centre of the World Bank assisted National Agricultural Research Programme (NARP)
2018-07-01
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| Series: | Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management |
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| Online Access: | https://www.ajol.info/index.php/jasem/article/view/174442 |
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| author | O.O. Ade-Ikuesan M.O. Osifeko I.K. Okakwu K.S. Folaranmi P.O. Alao |
| author_facet | O.O. Ade-Ikuesan M.O. Osifeko I.K. Okakwu K.S. Folaranmi P.O. Alao |
| author_sort | O.O. Ade-Ikuesan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
This study uses probabilistic load forecast technique to predict the load demand pattern in Ogun State for year 2018. Energy consumption data for Ogun State for year 2016 and 2017 was obtained from the regional headquarter of the Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company (IBEDC), Abeokuta. The results of the study show that the energy consumption in Ogun State has the probability tendency of rising above 98,469.40 MWHR by 2.68%. Similarly, it was also established that the probability of energy consumed in the state rising below 46,494.68 MWHR within the next few months will be 5.98%. The probability that energy consumption in year 2018 will fall between 98,469.40 MWHR and 46,494.68 MWHR is 91.84%. Energy consumption in year 2018 will mostly fall between 63,500 MWHR – 86,000 MWHR. The result also indicated that energy consumption in 2018, has the highest probability of falling between 72,500 MWHR and 77,000 MWHR by 15.34%. It is unlikely it falls between 45,000 MWHR to 50,000 MWHR and 95,000 MWHR to 99,500 MWHR, with both range having their percentage probabilities at 0.19% and 2.99% respectively. Result of this study is useful to IBEDC for their operational planning and control activities.
Keywords: energy consumption forecast, probabilistic load forecast (PLF), deterministic forecast
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| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T14:49:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fe65a002a79744c184916b63768149cc |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2659-1502 2659-1499 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T14:49:49Z |
| publishDate | 2018-07-01 |
| publisher | Joint Coordination Centre of the World Bank assisted National Agricultural Research Programme (NARP) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-fe65a002a79744c184916b63768149cc2024-04-02T19:51:43ZengJoint Coordination Centre of the World Bank assisted National Agricultural Research Programme (NARP)Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management2659-15022659-14992018-07-0122610.4314/jasem.v22i6.7Prediction of electricity consumption demand pattern for 2018 in Ogun State, NigeriaO.O. Ade-IkuesanM.O. OsifekoI.K. OkakwuK.S. FolaranmiP.O. Alao This study uses probabilistic load forecast technique to predict the load demand pattern in Ogun State for year 2018. Energy consumption data for Ogun State for year 2016 and 2017 was obtained from the regional headquarter of the Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company (IBEDC), Abeokuta. The results of the study show that the energy consumption in Ogun State has the probability tendency of rising above 98,469.40 MWHR by 2.68%. Similarly, it was also established that the probability of energy consumed in the state rising below 46,494.68 MWHR within the next few months will be 5.98%. The probability that energy consumption in year 2018 will fall between 98,469.40 MWHR and 46,494.68 MWHR is 91.84%. Energy consumption in year 2018 will mostly fall between 63,500 MWHR – 86,000 MWHR. The result also indicated that energy consumption in 2018, has the highest probability of falling between 72,500 MWHR and 77,000 MWHR by 15.34%. It is unlikely it falls between 45,000 MWHR to 50,000 MWHR and 95,000 MWHR to 99,500 MWHR, with both range having their percentage probabilities at 0.19% and 2.99% respectively. Result of this study is useful to IBEDC for their operational planning and control activities. Keywords: energy consumption forecast, probabilistic load forecast (PLF), deterministic forecast https://www.ajol.info/index.php/jasem/article/view/174442energy consumption forecastprobabilistic load forecast (PLF)deterministic forecast |
| spellingShingle | O.O. Ade-Ikuesan M.O. Osifeko I.K. Okakwu K.S. Folaranmi P.O. Alao Prediction of electricity consumption demand pattern for 2018 in Ogun State, Nigeria Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management energy consumption forecast probabilistic load forecast (PLF) deterministic forecast |
| title | Prediction of electricity consumption demand pattern for 2018 in Ogun State, Nigeria |
| title_full | Prediction of electricity consumption demand pattern for 2018 in Ogun State, Nigeria |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of electricity consumption demand pattern for 2018 in Ogun State, Nigeria |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of electricity consumption demand pattern for 2018 in Ogun State, Nigeria |
| title_short | Prediction of electricity consumption demand pattern for 2018 in Ogun State, Nigeria |
| title_sort | prediction of electricity consumption demand pattern for 2018 in ogun state nigeria |
| topic | energy consumption forecast probabilistic load forecast (PLF) deterministic forecast |
| url | https://www.ajol.info/index.php/jasem/article/view/174442 |
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