A probabilistic prediction of the next strong earthquake in the Acapulco-San Marcos segment, Mexico
Conditional probabilities for recurrence times of large earthquakes are a reasonable and valid form for estimating the likelihood of future large earthquakes. In this study we assume a gamma and a lognormal distribution for the recurrence time intervals of large earthquakes. The seismic process in t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Geofísica
2005-04-01
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| Series: | Geofísica Internacional |
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| Online Access: | http://www.geofisica.unam.mx/unid_apoyo/editorial/publicaciones/investigacion/geofisica_internacional/anteriores/2005/04/Ferraes.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797716968021688320 |
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| author | Sergio G. Ferráes |
| author_facet | Sergio G. Ferráes |
| author_sort | Sergio G. Ferráes |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Conditional probabilities for recurrence times of large earthquakes are a reasonable and valid form for estimating the likelihood of future large earthquakes. In this study we assume a gamma and a lognormal distribution for the recurrence time intervals of large earthquakes. The seismic process in the Acapulco-San Marcos fault-segment can be modelled as a renewal process, using a list of historical strong earthquakes (Ms≥7). For the gamma model, a highly damaging earthquake (Ms≥7) may occur approximately before August 2016 ± 5.14 (yrs). For the lognormal model, a highly damaging strong earthquake (Ms≥7) may occur aproximately before July 2016 ± 5.15 (yrs). |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T08:29:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fe810c7df4f84949ab03d47ee74fb7bd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0016-7169 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T08:29:23Z |
| publishDate | 2005-04-01 |
| publisher | Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Geofísica |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geofísica Internacional |
| spelling | doaj.art-fe810c7df4f84949ab03d47ee74fb7bd2023-09-02T17:53:44ZengUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de GeofísicaGeofísica Internacional0016-71692005-04-01444347353A probabilistic prediction of the next strong earthquake in the Acapulco-San Marcos segment, MexicoSergio G. FerráesConditional probabilities for recurrence times of large earthquakes are a reasonable and valid form for estimating the likelihood of future large earthquakes. In this study we assume a gamma and a lognormal distribution for the recurrence time intervals of large earthquakes. The seismic process in the Acapulco-San Marcos fault-segment can be modelled as a renewal process, using a list of historical strong earthquakes (Ms≥7). For the gamma model, a highly damaging earthquake (Ms≥7) may occur approximately before August 2016 ± 5.14 (yrs). For the lognormal model, a highly damaging strong earthquake (Ms≥7) may occur aproximately before July 2016 ± 5.15 (yrs).http://www.geofisica.unam.mx/unid_apoyo/editorial/publicaciones/investigacion/geofisica_internacional/anteriores/2005/04/Ferraes.pdfEarthquakesprobabilistic predictionconditional densitygamma distributionlognormal distributionrecurrence timeprediction error |
| spellingShingle | Sergio G. Ferráes A probabilistic prediction of the next strong earthquake in the Acapulco-San Marcos segment, Mexico Geofísica Internacional Earthquakes probabilistic prediction conditional density gamma distribution lognormal distribution recurrence time prediction error |
| title | A probabilistic prediction of the next strong earthquake in the Acapulco-San Marcos segment, Mexico |
| title_full | A probabilistic prediction of the next strong earthquake in the Acapulco-San Marcos segment, Mexico |
| title_fullStr | A probabilistic prediction of the next strong earthquake in the Acapulco-San Marcos segment, Mexico |
| title_full_unstemmed | A probabilistic prediction of the next strong earthquake in the Acapulco-San Marcos segment, Mexico |
| title_short | A probabilistic prediction of the next strong earthquake in the Acapulco-San Marcos segment, Mexico |
| title_sort | probabilistic prediction of the next strong earthquake in the acapulco san marcos segment mexico |
| topic | Earthquakes probabilistic prediction conditional density gamma distribution lognormal distribution recurrence time prediction error |
| url | http://www.geofisica.unam.mx/unid_apoyo/editorial/publicaciones/investigacion/geofisica_internacional/anteriores/2005/04/Ferraes.pdf |
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