A probabilistic prediction of the next strong earthquake in the Acapulco-San Marcos segment, Mexico

A probabilistic prediction of the next strong earthquake in the Acapulco-San Marcos segment, Mexico

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Conditional probabilities for recurrence times of large earthquakes are a reasonable and valid form for estimating the likelihood of future large earthquakes. In this study we assume a gamma and a lognormal distribution for the recurrence time intervals of large earthquakes. The seismic process in t...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Sergio G. Ferráes
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Geofísica 2005-04-01
Series:Geofísica Internacional
Subjects:
Earthquakes
probabilistic prediction
conditional density
gamma distribution
lognormal distribution
recurrence time
prediction error
Online Access:http://www.geofisica.unam.mx/unid_apoyo/editorial/publicaciones/investigacion/geofisica_internacional/anteriores/2005/04/Ferraes.pdf

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