Climate or land cover variations: what is driving observed changes in river peak flows? A data-based attribution study
<p>Climate change and land cover changes are influencing the hydrological regime of rivers worldwide. In Flanders (Belgium), the intensification of the hydrological cycle caused by climate change is projected to cause more flooding in winters, and land use and land cover changes could amplify...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2019-02-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/23/871/2019/hess-23-871-2019.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811270214813220864 |
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| author | J. De Niel P. Willems |
| author_facet | J. De Niel P. Willems |
| author_sort | J. De Niel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Climate change and land cover changes are influencing the
hydrological regime of rivers worldwide. In Flanders (Belgium), the
intensification of the hydrological cycle caused by climate change is
projected to cause more flooding in winters, and land use and land cover changes
could amplify these effects by, for example, making runoff on paved
surfaces faster. The relative importance of both drivers, however, is still
uncertain, and interaction effects between both drivers are not yet well
understood.</p>
<p>In order to better understand the hydrological impact of climate variations
and land cover changes, including their interaction effects, we fitted a
statistical model for historical data over 3 decades for 29 catchments in
Flanders. The model is able to explain 60 % of the changes in river peak
flows over time. It was found that catchment characteristics explain up to
18 % of changes in river peak flows, 6 % of changes in climate variability and 8 % of land
cover changes. Steep catchments and catchments with a high proportion
of loamic soils are subject to higher peak flows, and an increase in urban
area of 1 % might cause increases in river peak flows up to 5 %.
Interactions between catchment characteristics, climate variations and land
cover changes explain up to 32 % of the peak-flow changes, where flat
catchments with a low loamic soil content are more sensitive to land cover
changes with respect to peak-flow anomalies. This shows the importance of
including such interaction terms in data-based attribution studies.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T21:56:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fec5d2ebaf52479f8729dfd18b837921 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T21:56:52Z |
| publishDate | 2019-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-fec5d2ebaf52479f8729dfd18b8379212022-12-22T03:15:18ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382019-02-012387188210.5194/hess-23-871-2019Climate or land cover variations: what is driving observed changes in river peak flows? A data-based attribution studyJ. De Niel0P. Willems1KU Leuven, Hydraulics Section, Department of Civil Engineering, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, 3001 Leuven, BelgiumKU Leuven, Hydraulics Section, Department of Civil Engineering, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, 3001 Leuven, Belgium<p>Climate change and land cover changes are influencing the hydrological regime of rivers worldwide. In Flanders (Belgium), the intensification of the hydrological cycle caused by climate change is projected to cause more flooding in winters, and land use and land cover changes could amplify these effects by, for example, making runoff on paved surfaces faster. The relative importance of both drivers, however, is still uncertain, and interaction effects between both drivers are not yet well understood.</p> <p>In order to better understand the hydrological impact of climate variations and land cover changes, including their interaction effects, we fitted a statistical model for historical data over 3 decades for 29 catchments in Flanders. The model is able to explain 60 % of the changes in river peak flows over time. It was found that catchment characteristics explain up to 18 % of changes in river peak flows, 6 % of changes in climate variability and 8 % of land cover changes. Steep catchments and catchments with a high proportion of loamic soils are subject to higher peak flows, and an increase in urban area of 1 % might cause increases in river peak flows up to 5 %. Interactions between catchment characteristics, climate variations and land cover changes explain up to 32 % of the peak-flow changes, where flat catchments with a low loamic soil content are more sensitive to land cover changes with respect to peak-flow anomalies. This shows the importance of including such interaction terms in data-based attribution studies.</p>https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/23/871/2019/hess-23-871-2019.pdf |
| spellingShingle | J. De Niel P. Willems Climate or land cover variations: what is driving observed changes in river peak flows? A data-based attribution study Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Climate or land cover variations: what is driving observed changes in river peak flows? A data-based attribution study |
| title_full | Climate or land cover variations: what is driving observed changes in river peak flows? A data-based attribution study |
| title_fullStr | Climate or land cover variations: what is driving observed changes in river peak flows? A data-based attribution study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate or land cover variations: what is driving observed changes in river peak flows? A data-based attribution study |
| title_short | Climate or land cover variations: what is driving observed changes in river peak flows? A data-based attribution study |
| title_sort | climate or land cover variations what is driving observed changes in river peak flows a data based attribution study |
| url | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/23/871/2019/hess-23-871-2019.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jdeniel climateorlandcovervariationswhatisdrivingobservedchangesinriverpeakflowsadatabasedattributionstudy AT pwillems climateorlandcovervariationswhatisdrivingobservedchangesinriverpeakflowsadatabasedattributionstudy |