A Novel and Accurate Method for Estimating Deaths and Cases During Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases Including COVID-19

Michael J Cook,1 Basant K Puri2 1Vis a Vis Symposiums, Bury St. Edmunds, UK; 2C.A.R., Cambridge, UKCorrespondence: Michael J Cook, Email mcook98@msn.comIntroduction: Epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases plays an important role in driving public health policy. Commonly used models are des...

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Main Authors: Cook MJ, Puri BK
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Dove Medical Press 2023-10-01
Series:International Journal of General Medicine
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.dovepress.com/a-novel-and-accurate-method-for-estimating-deaths-and-cases-during-out-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-IJGM
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author Cook MJ
Puri BK
author_facet Cook MJ
Puri BK
author_sort Cook MJ
collection DOAJ
description Michael J Cook,1 Basant K Puri2 1Vis a Vis Symposiums, Bury St. Edmunds, UK; 2C.A.R., Cambridge, UKCorrespondence: Michael J Cook, Email mcook98@msn.comIntroduction: Epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases plays an important role in driving public health policy. Commonly used models are described, including those based on exponential growth (Laplace and related distributions); susceptible-infected-removed; the Gompertz distribution; and the skew-reflected-Gompertz distribution. These are all sensitive to the timing of peak infection. The development of a novel method for forecasting the number of deaths occurring during epidemics of infectious diseases is described.Methods: The mathematical development of the authors’ novel asymmetric difference model is detailed in this paper. Its predictions for mortality rates associated with the COVID-19 pandemic for 14 countries were compared with the corresponding published mortality data.Results: Forecasts by the asymmetric difference model of deaths from SARS-CoV-2 in different countries, actual recorded deaths to 30th June 2020, and corresponding errors included UK (42,700; 55,904; − 24%); Poland (1490; 1444; +3%); Denmark (580; 605; − 4%); Netherlands (6510; 6189; +5%); France (34,280; 29,836; +15%); Canada (1500; 8591; − 78%); USA (44,540; 124,734; − 64%); and Italy (22,020; 34,980; − 37%). The model output was dependent upon forecast date accuracy for the peak of the disease outbreak. For Spain, the forecast date was one day early and for 10 (71%) countries the forecast peak occurred within seven days (inclusive) of the actual date.Discussion: Mortality prediction by the asymmetric difference model is relatively accurate. Furthermore, this new model does not appear to be as unduly sensitive to the timing of peak infection as other models. Indeed, its prediction of peak infection also appears to be relatively accurate.Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, infectious disease modelling, SARS-CoV-2, epidemic forecasting, pandemic forecasting
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spelling doaj.art-fecdcfbfa8e54f58b39a89280341f6f72023-10-19T17:10:54ZengDove Medical PressInternational Journal of General Medicine1178-70742023-10-01Volume 164705471887460A Novel and Accurate Method for Estimating Deaths and Cases During Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases Including COVID-19Cook MJPuri BKMichael J Cook,1 Basant K Puri2 1Vis a Vis Symposiums, Bury St. Edmunds, UK; 2C.A.R., Cambridge, UKCorrespondence: Michael J Cook, Email mcook98@msn.comIntroduction: Epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases plays an important role in driving public health policy. Commonly used models are described, including those based on exponential growth (Laplace and related distributions); susceptible-infected-removed; the Gompertz distribution; and the skew-reflected-Gompertz distribution. These are all sensitive to the timing of peak infection. The development of a novel method for forecasting the number of deaths occurring during epidemics of infectious diseases is described.Methods: The mathematical development of the authors’ novel asymmetric difference model is detailed in this paper. Its predictions for mortality rates associated with the COVID-19 pandemic for 14 countries were compared with the corresponding published mortality data.Results: Forecasts by the asymmetric difference model of deaths from SARS-CoV-2 in different countries, actual recorded deaths to 30th June 2020, and corresponding errors included UK (42,700; 55,904; − 24%); Poland (1490; 1444; +3%); Denmark (580; 605; − 4%); Netherlands (6510; 6189; +5%); France (34,280; 29,836; +15%); Canada (1500; 8591; − 78%); USA (44,540; 124,734; − 64%); and Italy (22,020; 34,980; − 37%). The model output was dependent upon forecast date accuracy for the peak of the disease outbreak. For Spain, the forecast date was one day early and for 10 (71%) countries the forecast peak occurred within seven days (inclusive) of the actual date.Discussion: Mortality prediction by the asymmetric difference model is relatively accurate. Furthermore, this new model does not appear to be as unduly sensitive to the timing of peak infection as other models. Indeed, its prediction of peak infection also appears to be relatively accurate.Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, infectious disease modelling, SARS-CoV-2, epidemic forecasting, pandemic forecastinghttps://www.dovepress.com/a-novel-and-accurate-method-for-estimating-deaths-and-cases-during-out-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-IJGMcovid-19coronavirusinfectious disease modellingsars-cov-2epidemic forecastingpandemic forecasting
spellingShingle Cook MJ
Puri BK
A Novel and Accurate Method for Estimating Deaths and Cases During Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases Including COVID-19
International Journal of General Medicine
covid-19
coronavirus
infectious disease modelling
sars-cov-2
epidemic forecasting
pandemic forecasting
title A Novel and Accurate Method for Estimating Deaths and Cases During Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases Including COVID-19
title_full A Novel and Accurate Method for Estimating Deaths and Cases During Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases Including COVID-19
title_fullStr A Novel and Accurate Method for Estimating Deaths and Cases During Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases Including COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed A Novel and Accurate Method for Estimating Deaths and Cases During Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases Including COVID-19
title_short A Novel and Accurate Method for Estimating Deaths and Cases During Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases Including COVID-19
title_sort novel and accurate method for estimating deaths and cases during outbreaks of infectious diseases including covid 19
topic covid-19
coronavirus
infectious disease modelling
sars-cov-2
epidemic forecasting
pandemic forecasting
url https://www.dovepress.com/a-novel-and-accurate-method-for-estimating-deaths-and-cases-during-out-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-IJGM
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