Utilizing an Intervention Forecasting Approach to Improve Reefer Container Demand Forecasting Accuracy: A Case Study in Indonesia
The demand for reefer containers in Indonesia has been increasing due to both global and regional trade growth; however, logistics providers are still struggling with several related challenges, including a container shortage problem, which is due to ineffective forecasting practices. This study...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universitas Indonesia
2020-01-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Technology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ijtech.eng.ui.ac.id/article/view/3220 |
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| author | Sintia Putri Pradita Pornthipa Ongkunaruk Thaweephan Duke Leingpibul |
| author_facet | Sintia Putri Pradita Pornthipa Ongkunaruk Thaweephan Duke Leingpibul |
| author_sort | Sintia Putri Pradita |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The demand for reefer containers in Indonesia has been increasing due
to both global and regional trade growth; however, logistics providers are
still struggling with several related challenges, including a container
shortage problem, which is due to ineffective forecasting practices. This study
aimed to improve the accuracy of reefer container demand forecasting by
introducing an intervention forecasting approach. This approach will help
address the demand planning issue of reefer circulation. The intervention
forecasting approach combines human insights from the qualitative approach with
the mathematical precision of the quantitative approach in iterative sequences.
This field study was conducted with an Indonesian third party logistic company
in Eastern Indonesia. The training data set was analyzed to provide a pattern
of demand as well as some initial forecasting parameters (such as trend and
seasonal index). Then, an expert helped identify irregular demand points. The
demand data was then adjusted by a sales and marketing manager according to
related factors such as natural disasters, oil price increase, promotions. The
selected models were then further verified using a testing dataset, and the
forecast errors from various models using the raw and adjusted training data
sets were compared with those of the testing datasets. The results revealed
that the mean average percentage error (MAPE) after adjusting the demand was
5.43% to 6.22% for the training and 9.55% to 10.33% for the testing dataset,
which is lower than that of the traditional forecasting method when there was
no intervention. In summary, the adjustment forecast could increase forecast
accuracy by 42.39% and 39.42% for 20- and 40-feet containers, respectively. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T02:20:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fecf60be5d584f3f8cc85df5f86a71be |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2086-9614 2087-2100 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T02:20:01Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Universitas Indonesia |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Technology |
| spelling | doaj.art-fecf60be5d584f3f8cc85df5f86a71be2023-01-03T00:15:57ZengUniversitas IndonesiaInternational Journal of Technology2086-96142087-21002020-01-0111114415410.14716/ijtech.v11i1.32203220Utilizing an Intervention Forecasting Approach to Improve Reefer Container Demand Forecasting Accuracy: A Case Study in IndonesiaSintia Putri Pradita0Pornthipa Ongkunaruk1Thaweephan Duke Leingpibul2Department of Agro-Industrial Technology, Faculty of Agro-Industry, Kasetsart University, 50 Ngam Wong Wan Rd. Lad Yao, Chatuchak, Bangkok 10900, ThailandDepartment of Agro-Industrial Technology, Faculty of Agro-Industry, Kasetsart University, 50 Ngam Wong Wan Rd. Lad Yao, Chatuchak, Bangkok 10900, ThailandHaworth College of Business, Western Michigan University, 1903 Western Michigan Avenue Kalamazoo, MI 49008, USAThe demand for reefer containers in Indonesia has been increasing due to both global and regional trade growth; however, logistics providers are still struggling with several related challenges, including a container shortage problem, which is due to ineffective forecasting practices. This study aimed to improve the accuracy of reefer container demand forecasting by introducing an intervention forecasting approach. This approach will help address the demand planning issue of reefer circulation. The intervention forecasting approach combines human insights from the qualitative approach with the mathematical precision of the quantitative approach in iterative sequences. This field study was conducted with an Indonesian third party logistic company in Eastern Indonesia. The training data set was analyzed to provide a pattern of demand as well as some initial forecasting parameters (such as trend and seasonal index). Then, an expert helped identify irregular demand points. The demand data was then adjusted by a sales and marketing manager according to related factors such as natural disasters, oil price increase, promotions. The selected models were then further verified using a testing dataset, and the forecast errors from various models using the raw and adjusted training data sets were compared with those of the testing datasets. The results revealed that the mean average percentage error (MAPE) after adjusting the demand was 5.43% to 6.22% for the training and 9.55% to 10.33% for the testing dataset, which is lower than that of the traditional forecasting method when there was no intervention. In summary, the adjustment forecast could increase forecast accuracy by 42.39% and 39.42% for 20- and 40-feet containers, respectively.http://ijtech.eng.ui.ac.id/article/view/3220interventionqualitative forecasting methodreefer containersthird party logistics providerstime series forecasting |
| spellingShingle | Sintia Putri Pradita Pornthipa Ongkunaruk Thaweephan Duke Leingpibul Utilizing an Intervention Forecasting Approach to Improve Reefer Container Demand Forecasting Accuracy: A Case Study in Indonesia International Journal of Technology intervention qualitative forecasting method reefer containers third party logistics providers time series forecasting |
| title | Utilizing an Intervention Forecasting Approach to Improve Reefer Container Demand Forecasting Accuracy: A Case Study in Indonesia |
| title_full | Utilizing an Intervention Forecasting Approach to Improve Reefer Container Demand Forecasting Accuracy: A Case Study in Indonesia |
| title_fullStr | Utilizing an Intervention Forecasting Approach to Improve Reefer Container Demand Forecasting Accuracy: A Case Study in Indonesia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Utilizing an Intervention Forecasting Approach to Improve Reefer Container Demand Forecasting Accuracy: A Case Study in Indonesia |
| title_short | Utilizing an Intervention Forecasting Approach to Improve Reefer Container Demand Forecasting Accuracy: A Case Study in Indonesia |
| title_sort | utilizing an intervention forecasting approach to improve reefer container demand forecasting accuracy a case study in indonesia |
| topic | intervention qualitative forecasting method reefer containers third party logistics providers time series forecasting |
| url | http://ijtech.eng.ui.ac.id/article/view/3220 |
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