Prospects for the development of the energy complex of the North-East of Russia
THE PURPOSE. To analyze scenarios for the development of the energy complex of one of the regions of the North-East of Russia for the period up to 2030 with a target vision until 2050. This will require an analysis of the current state of the energy complex; show the latest changes in the power supp...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Kazan State Power Engineering University
2021-07-01
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| Series: | Известия высших учебных заведений: Проблемы энергетики |
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| Online Access: | https://www.energyret.ru/jour/article/view/1843 |
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| author | N. S. Volotkovskaya A. S. Semenov Y. V. Bebikhov V. A. Shevchuk O. V. Fedorov |
| author_facet | N. S. Volotkovskaya A. S. Semenov Y. V. Bebikhov V. A. Shevchuk O. V. Fedorov |
| author_sort | N. S. Volotkovskaya |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | THE PURPOSE. To analyze scenarios for the development of the energy complex of one of the regions of the North-East of Russia for the period up to 2030 with a target vision until 2050. This will require an analysis of the current state of the energy complex; show the latest changes in the power supply system; propose promising areas for the transfer of electricity. METHODS. To assess the current state of the electric power industry, from the point of view of the most efficient use of natural energy resources and the potential of the energy sector of the economy, methods of collecting and processing statistical data were applied. For the technical assessment of the state of electric power facilities, analytical and logical- probabilistic methods for determining reliability were applied. To predict energy consumption, mathematical modeling methods were used with the construction of approximating polynomials. RESULTS. The article evaluates the strategic and moderate scenarios for the development of the energy sector of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) in modern conditions, taking into account the increase in the energy efficiency of the region's economy. The indicators of electricity consumption throughout the republic, the Western Energy District and the decentralized power supply zone were subject to assessment. Long-term forecasts made do not confirm the development of events according to a more stringent strategic scenario. At the same time, the results for the moderate scenario are fully correlated with both the current state of the energy sector and the prospects for its development. CONCLUSION. Analysis of the current state and assessment of scenarios for the development of the energy sector of the republic's economy showed an increase in the reliability of power supply systems when organizing a "ring" in the Western Energy District; increase in useful electricity consumption by 2030; increase in electricity production; changes in the structure of electricity production. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T18:52:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-fef20078abcb4ce6b938fe154c0049f7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1998-9903 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T18:52:08Z |
| publishDate | 2021-07-01 |
| publisher | Kazan State Power Engineering University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Известия высших учебных заведений: Проблемы энергетики |
| spelling | doaj.art-fef20078abcb4ce6b938fe154c0049f72023-08-02T07:13:22ZengKazan State Power Engineering UniversityИзвестия высших учебных заведений: Проблемы энергетики1998-99032021-07-01233586910.30724/1998-9903-2021-23-3-58-69760Prospects for the development of the energy complex of the North-East of RussiaN. S. Volotkovskaya0A. S. Semenov1Y. V. Bebikhov2V. A. Shevchuk3O. V. Fedorov4Ammosov North-Eastern Federal University, Polytechnic Institute (branch)Ammosov North-Eastern Federal University, Polytechnic Institute (branch)Ammosov North-Eastern Federal University, Polytechnic Institute (branch); Heat and Water Supply Company (PJSC ALROSA)JSC Research and Production Center PolyusAlekseev Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University; Ammosov North-Eastern Federal University, Polytechnic Institute (branch)THE PURPOSE. To analyze scenarios for the development of the energy complex of one of the regions of the North-East of Russia for the period up to 2030 with a target vision until 2050. This will require an analysis of the current state of the energy complex; show the latest changes in the power supply system; propose promising areas for the transfer of electricity. METHODS. To assess the current state of the electric power industry, from the point of view of the most efficient use of natural energy resources and the potential of the energy sector of the economy, methods of collecting and processing statistical data were applied. For the technical assessment of the state of electric power facilities, analytical and logical- probabilistic methods for determining reliability were applied. To predict energy consumption, mathematical modeling methods were used with the construction of approximating polynomials. RESULTS. The article evaluates the strategic and moderate scenarios for the development of the energy sector of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) in modern conditions, taking into account the increase in the energy efficiency of the region's economy. The indicators of electricity consumption throughout the republic, the Western Energy District and the decentralized power supply zone were subject to assessment. Long-term forecasts made do not confirm the development of events according to a more stringent strategic scenario. At the same time, the results for the moderate scenario are fully correlated with both the current state of the energy sector and the prospects for its development. CONCLUSION. Analysis of the current state and assessment of scenarios for the development of the energy sector of the republic's economy showed an increase in the reliability of power supply systems when organizing a "ring" in the Western Energy District; increase in useful electricity consumption by 2030; increase in electricity production; changes in the structure of electricity production.https://www.energyret.ru/jour/article/view/1843energy complexelectric power industryenergy efficiencyelectricity consumptionpower supply systemsubstationdevelopment scenario |
| spellingShingle | N. S. Volotkovskaya A. S. Semenov Y. V. Bebikhov V. A. Shevchuk O. V. Fedorov Prospects for the development of the energy complex of the North-East of Russia Известия высших учебных заведений: Проблемы энергетики energy complex electric power industry energy efficiency electricity consumption power supply system substation development scenario |
| title | Prospects for the development of the energy complex of the North-East of Russia |
| title_full | Prospects for the development of the energy complex of the North-East of Russia |
| title_fullStr | Prospects for the development of the energy complex of the North-East of Russia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prospects for the development of the energy complex of the North-East of Russia |
| title_short | Prospects for the development of the energy complex of the North-East of Russia |
| title_sort | prospects for the development of the energy complex of the north east of russia |
| topic | energy complex electric power industry energy efficiency electricity consumption power supply system substation development scenario |
| url | https://www.energyret.ru/jour/article/view/1843 |
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