Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation
Climate change has been observed to expand distributions of woody plants in many areas of arctic and alpine environments—a phenomenon called shrubification. New spatial arrangements of shrubs cause further changes in vegetation via changing dynamics of biotic interactions. However, the mediating inf...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028 |
| _version_ | 1827871412170260480 |
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| author | Heidi K Mod Miska Luoto |
| author_facet | Heidi K Mod Miska Luoto |
| author_sort | Heidi K Mod |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change has been observed to expand distributions of woody plants in many areas of arctic and alpine environments—a phenomenon called shrubification. New spatial arrangements of shrubs cause further changes in vegetation via changing dynamics of biotic interactions. However, the mediating influence of shrubification is rarely acknowledged in predictions of tundra vegetation change. Here, we examine possible warming-induced landscape-level vegetation changes in a high-latitude environment using species distribution modelling (SDM), specifically concentrating on the impacts of shrubification on ambient vegetation. First, we produced estimates of current shrub and tree cover and forecasts of their expansion under climate change scenarios to be incorporated to SDMs of 116 vascular plants. Second, the predictions of vegetation change based on the models including only abiotic predictors and the models including abiotic, shrub and tree predictors were compared in a representative test area. Based on our model predictions, abundance of woody plants will expand, thus decreasing predicted species richness, amplifying species turnover and increasing the local extinction risk for ambient vegetation. However, the spatial variation demonstrated in our predictions highlights that tundra vegetation can be expected to show a wide variety of different responses to the combined effects of warming and shrubification, depending on the original plant species pool and environmental conditions. We conclude that realistic forecasts of the future require acknowledging the role of shrubification in warming-induced tundra vegetation change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:09:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ff94079a9dc14c9b910ecea5cab0273b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:09:05Z |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-ff94079a9dc14c9b910ecea5cab0273b2023-08-09T14:13:46ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262016-01-01111212402810.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetationHeidi K Mod0Miska Luoto1Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki , PO Box 64, (Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2a), FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland; Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne , UNIL Sorge, Le Biophore, CH-1015 Lausanne, SwitzerlandDepartment of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki , PO Box 64, (Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2a), FI-00014 University of Helsinki, FinlandClimate change has been observed to expand distributions of woody plants in many areas of arctic and alpine environments—a phenomenon called shrubification. New spatial arrangements of shrubs cause further changes in vegetation via changing dynamics of biotic interactions. However, the mediating influence of shrubification is rarely acknowledged in predictions of tundra vegetation change. Here, we examine possible warming-induced landscape-level vegetation changes in a high-latitude environment using species distribution modelling (SDM), specifically concentrating on the impacts of shrubification on ambient vegetation. First, we produced estimates of current shrub and tree cover and forecasts of their expansion under climate change scenarios to be incorporated to SDMs of 116 vascular plants. Second, the predictions of vegetation change based on the models including only abiotic predictors and the models including abiotic, shrub and tree predictors were compared in a representative test area. Based on our model predictions, abundance of woody plants will expand, thus decreasing predicted species richness, amplifying species turnover and increasing the local extinction risk for ambient vegetation. However, the spatial variation demonstrated in our predictions highlights that tundra vegetation can be expected to show a wide variety of different responses to the combined effects of warming and shrubification, depending on the original plant species pool and environmental conditions. We conclude that realistic forecasts of the future require acknowledging the role of shrubification in warming-induced tundra vegetation change.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028biotic interactionsclimate changeshrubspatial modellingtundravegetation |
| spellingShingle | Heidi K Mod Miska Luoto Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation Environmental Research Letters biotic interactions climate change shrub spatial modelling tundra vegetation |
| title | Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation |
| title_full | Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation |
| title_fullStr | Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation |
| title_short | Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation |
| title_sort | arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation |
| topic | biotic interactions climate change shrub spatial modelling tundra vegetation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028 |
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