Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5–11 y) on overall COVID-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in BrazilResearch in context
Summary: Background: Developing countries have experienced significant COVID-19 disease burden. With the emergence of new variants, particularly omicron, the disease burden in children has increased. When the first COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in children aged 5–11 years of age, very few c...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023-01-01
|
| Series: | The Lancet Regional Health. Americas |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667193X22002137 |
| _version_ | 1797946335488376832 |
|---|---|
| author | Gabriel Cardozo Müller Leonardo Souto Ferreira Felipe Ernesto Mesias Campos Marcelo Eduardo Borges Gabriel Berg de Almeida Silas Poloni Lorena Mendes Simon Ângela Maria Bagattini Michelle Quarti José Alexandre Felizola Diniz Filho Roberto André Kraenkel Renato Mendes Coutinho Suzi Alves Camey Ricardo de Souza Kuchenbecker Cristiana Maria Toscano |
| author_facet | Gabriel Cardozo Müller Leonardo Souto Ferreira Felipe Ernesto Mesias Campos Marcelo Eduardo Borges Gabriel Berg de Almeida Silas Poloni Lorena Mendes Simon Ângela Maria Bagattini Michelle Quarti José Alexandre Felizola Diniz Filho Roberto André Kraenkel Renato Mendes Coutinho Suzi Alves Camey Ricardo de Souza Kuchenbecker Cristiana Maria Toscano |
| author_sort | Gabriel Cardozo Müller |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Background: Developing countries have experienced significant COVID-19 disease burden. With the emergence of new variants, particularly omicron, the disease burden in children has increased. When the first COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in children aged 5–11 years of age, very few countries recommended vaccination due to limited risk-benefit evidence for vaccination of this population. In Brazil, ranking second in the global COVID-19 death toll, the childhood COVID-19 disease burden increased significantly in early 2022. This prompted a risk-benefit assessment of the introduction and scaling-up of COVID-19 vaccination of children. Methods: To estimate the potential impact of vaccinating children aged 5–11 years with mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine in the context of omicron dominance, we developed a discrete-time SEIR-like model stratified in age groups, considering a three-month time horizon. We considered three scenarios: No vaccination, slow, and maximum vaccination paces. In each scenario, we estimated the potential reduction in total COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, hospitalization costs, and potential years of life lost, considering the absence of vaccination as the base-case scenario. Findings: We estimated that vaccinating at a maximum pace could prevent, between mid-January and April 2022, about 26,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations, and 4200 deaths in all age groups; of which 5400 hospitalizations and 410 deaths in children aged 5–11 years. Continuing vaccination at a slow/current pace would prevent 1450 deaths and 9700 COVID-19 hospitalizations in all age groups in this same time period; of which 180 deaths and 2390 hospitalizations in children only. Interpretation: Maximum vaccination of children results in a significant reduction of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths and should be enforced in developing countries with significant disease incidence in children. Funding: This manuscript was funded by the Brazilian Council for Scientific and Technology Development (CNPq – Process # 402834/2020-8). |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T21:09:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ffa274fbea31474cae24a1e42e9d9e15 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2667-193X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T21:09:24Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Lancet Regional Health. Americas |
| spelling | doaj.art-ffa274fbea31474cae24a1e42e9d9e152023-01-21T04:22:00ZengElsevierThe Lancet Regional Health. Americas2667-193X2023-01-0117100396Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5–11 y) on overall COVID-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in BrazilResearch in contextGabriel Cardozo Müller0Leonardo Souto Ferreira1Felipe Ernesto Mesias Campos2Marcelo Eduardo Borges3Gabriel Berg de Almeida4Silas Poloni5Lorena Mendes Simon6Ângela Maria Bagattini7Michelle Quarti8José Alexandre Felizola Diniz Filho9Roberto André Kraenkel10Renato Mendes Coutinho11Suzi Alves Camey12Ricardo de Souza Kuchenbecker13Cristiana Maria Toscano14Programa de Pós-graduação em Epidemiologia, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil; Corresponding author. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Campus Saúde, Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 2400, 2° andar, Floresta, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.Observatório Covid-19, Brazil; Instituto de Física Teórica, Universidade Estadual Paulista, São Paulo, SP, BrazilObservatório Covid-19, Brazil; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, BrazilObservatório Covid-19, BrazilDepartamento de Infectologia, Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu, Universidade Estadual Paulista, São Paulo, BrazilObservatório Covid-19, Brazil; Instituto de Física Teórica, Universidade Estadual Paulista, São Paulo, SP, BrazilDepartamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, BrazilDepartamento de Saúde Coletiva, Instituto de Patologia Tropical e Saúde Pública, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, BrazilDepartamento de Saúde Coletiva, Instituto de Patologia Tropical e Saúde Pública, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, BrazilDepartamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, BrazilObservatório Covid-19, Brazil; Instituto de Física Teórica, Universidade Estadual Paulista, São Paulo, SP, BrazilObservatório Covid-19, Brazil; Centro de Matemática, Computação e Cognição, Universidade Federal do ABC, Santo André, SP, BrazilPrograma de Pós-graduação em Epidemiologia, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil; Instituto de Matemática e Estatística, Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil; Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, BrazilPrograma de Pós-graduação em Epidemiologia, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil; Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, BrazilDepartamento de Saúde Coletiva, Instituto de Patologia Tropical e Saúde Pública, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, BrazilSummary: Background: Developing countries have experienced significant COVID-19 disease burden. With the emergence of new variants, particularly omicron, the disease burden in children has increased. When the first COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in children aged 5–11 years of age, very few countries recommended vaccination due to limited risk-benefit evidence for vaccination of this population. In Brazil, ranking second in the global COVID-19 death toll, the childhood COVID-19 disease burden increased significantly in early 2022. This prompted a risk-benefit assessment of the introduction and scaling-up of COVID-19 vaccination of children. Methods: To estimate the potential impact of vaccinating children aged 5–11 years with mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine in the context of omicron dominance, we developed a discrete-time SEIR-like model stratified in age groups, considering a three-month time horizon. We considered three scenarios: No vaccination, slow, and maximum vaccination paces. In each scenario, we estimated the potential reduction in total COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, hospitalization costs, and potential years of life lost, considering the absence of vaccination as the base-case scenario. Findings: We estimated that vaccinating at a maximum pace could prevent, between mid-January and April 2022, about 26,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations, and 4200 deaths in all age groups; of which 5400 hospitalizations and 410 deaths in children aged 5–11 years. Continuing vaccination at a slow/current pace would prevent 1450 deaths and 9700 COVID-19 hospitalizations in all age groups in this same time period; of which 180 deaths and 2390 hospitalizations in children only. Interpretation: Maximum vaccination of children results in a significant reduction of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths and should be enforced in developing countries with significant disease incidence in children. Funding: This manuscript was funded by the Brazilian Council for Scientific and Technology Development (CNPq – Process # 402834/2020-8).http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667193X22002137COVID-19 vaccinesVaccinationInfectious disease modelingChildrenSARS-CoV-2 variants |
| spellingShingle | Gabriel Cardozo Müller Leonardo Souto Ferreira Felipe Ernesto Mesias Campos Marcelo Eduardo Borges Gabriel Berg de Almeida Silas Poloni Lorena Mendes Simon Ângela Maria Bagattini Michelle Quarti José Alexandre Felizola Diniz Filho Roberto André Kraenkel Renato Mendes Coutinho Suzi Alves Camey Ricardo de Souza Kuchenbecker Cristiana Maria Toscano Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5–11 y) on overall COVID-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in BrazilResearch in context The Lancet Regional Health. Americas COVID-19 vaccines Vaccination Infectious disease modeling Children SARS-CoV-2 variants |
| title | Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5–11 y) on overall COVID-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in BrazilResearch in context |
| title_full | Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5–11 y) on overall COVID-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in BrazilResearch in context |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5–11 y) on overall COVID-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in BrazilResearch in context |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5–11 y) on overall COVID-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in BrazilResearch in context |
| title_short | Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5–11 y) on overall COVID-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in BrazilResearch in context |
| title_sort | modeling the impact of child vaccination 5 11 y on overall covid 19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in brazilresearch in context |
| topic | COVID-19 vaccines Vaccination Infectious disease modeling Children SARS-CoV-2 variants |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667193X22002137 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gabrielcardozomuller modelingtheimpactofchildvaccination511yonoverallcovid19relatedhospitalizationsandmortalityinacontextofomicronvariantpredominanceanddifferentvaccinationcoveragepacesinbrazilresearchincontext AT leonardosoutoferreira modelingtheimpactofchildvaccination511yonoverallcovid19relatedhospitalizationsandmortalityinacontextofomicronvariantpredominanceanddifferentvaccinationcoveragepacesinbrazilresearchincontext AT felipeernestomesiascampos modelingtheimpactofchildvaccination511yonoverallcovid19relatedhospitalizationsandmortalityinacontextofomicronvariantpredominanceanddifferentvaccinationcoveragepacesinbrazilresearchincontext AT marceloeduardoborges modelingtheimpactofchildvaccination511yonoverallcovid19relatedhospitalizationsandmortalityinacontextofomicronvariantpredominanceanddifferentvaccinationcoveragepacesinbrazilresearchincontext AT gabrielbergdealmeida modelingtheimpactofchildvaccination511yonoverallcovid19relatedhospitalizationsandmortalityinacontextofomicronvariantpredominanceanddifferentvaccinationcoveragepacesinbrazilresearchincontext AT silaspoloni modelingtheimpactofchildvaccination511yonoverallcovid19relatedhospitalizationsandmortalityinacontextofomicronvariantpredominanceanddifferentvaccinationcoveragepacesinbrazilresearchincontext AT lorenamendessimon modelingtheimpactofchildvaccination511yonoverallcovid19relatedhospitalizationsandmortalityinacontextofomicronvariantpredominanceanddifferentvaccinationcoveragepacesinbrazilresearchincontext AT angelamariabagattini modelingtheimpactofchildvaccination511yonoverallcovid19relatedhospitalizationsandmortalityinacontextofomicronvariantpredominanceanddifferentvaccinationcoveragepacesinbrazilresearchincontext AT michellequarti modelingtheimpactofchildvaccination511yonoverallcovid19relatedhospitalizationsandmortalityinacontextofomicronvariantpredominanceanddifferentvaccinationcoveragepacesinbrazilresearchincontext AT josealexandrefelizoladinizfilho modelingtheimpactofchildvaccination511yonoverallcovid19relatedhospitalizationsandmortalityinacontextofomicronvariantpredominanceanddifferentvaccinationcoveragepacesinbrazilresearchincontext AT robertoandrekraenkel modelingtheimpactofchildvaccination511yonoverallcovid19relatedhospitalizationsandmortalityinacontextofomicronvariantpredominanceanddifferentvaccinationcoveragepacesinbrazilresearchincontext AT renatomendescoutinho modelingtheimpactofchildvaccination511yonoverallcovid19relatedhospitalizationsandmortalityinacontextofomicronvariantpredominanceanddifferentvaccinationcoveragepacesinbrazilresearchincontext AT suzialvescamey modelingtheimpactofchildvaccination511yonoverallcovid19relatedhospitalizationsandmortalityinacontextofomicronvariantpredominanceanddifferentvaccinationcoveragepacesinbrazilresearchincontext AT ricardodesouzakuchenbecker modelingtheimpactofchildvaccination511yonoverallcovid19relatedhospitalizationsandmortalityinacontextofomicronvariantpredominanceanddifferentvaccinationcoveragepacesinbrazilresearchincontext AT cristianamariatoscano modelingtheimpactofchildvaccination511yonoverallcovid19relatedhospitalizationsandmortalityinacontextofomicronvariantpredominanceanddifferentvaccinationcoveragepacesinbrazilresearchincontext |