Steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990
Abstract The change in global mean surface temperature is a crucial and broadly used indicator of the evolution of climate change. Any decadal scale changes in warming rate are however obfuscated by internal variability. Here we show that the surface temperature increase through the recent La Nina i...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-11-01
|
| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01061-4 |
| _version_ | 1797636725987606528 |
|---|---|
| author | B. H. Samset C. Zhou J. S. Fuglestvedt M. T. Lund J. Marotzke M. D. Zelinka |
| author_facet | B. H. Samset C. Zhou J. S. Fuglestvedt M. T. Lund J. Marotzke M. D. Zelinka |
| author_sort | B. H. Samset |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The change in global mean surface temperature is a crucial and broadly used indicator of the evolution of climate change. Any decadal scale changes in warming rate are however obfuscated by internal variability. Here we show that the surface temperature increase through the recent La Nina influenced years (2022) is consistent with the 50-year trend of 0.18 °C/decade. We use an Earth System Model based tool to filter out modulations to the warming rate by sea-surface temperature patterns and find consistent warming rates in four major global temperature data series. However, we also find clear indications, in all observational series, of a step-up in warming rate since around 1990. CMIP6 models generally do not capture this observed combination of long-term warming rate and recent increase. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T12:38:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ffe77c9a74d448d99de6c4139daac360 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T12:38:15Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj.art-ffe77c9a74d448d99de6c4139daac3602023-11-05T12:30:29ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352023-11-01411610.1038/s43247-023-01061-4Steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990B. H. Samset0C. Zhou1J. S. Fuglestvedt2M. T. Lund3J. Marotzke4M. D. Zelinka5CICERO Center for International Climate ResearchNanjing UniversityCICERO Center for International Climate ResearchCICERO Center for International Climate ResearchMax Planck Institute for MeteorologyLawrence Livermore National LaboratoryAbstract The change in global mean surface temperature is a crucial and broadly used indicator of the evolution of climate change. Any decadal scale changes in warming rate are however obfuscated by internal variability. Here we show that the surface temperature increase through the recent La Nina influenced years (2022) is consistent with the 50-year trend of 0.18 °C/decade. We use an Earth System Model based tool to filter out modulations to the warming rate by sea-surface temperature patterns and find consistent warming rates in four major global temperature data series. However, we also find clear indications, in all observational series, of a step-up in warming rate since around 1990. CMIP6 models generally do not capture this observed combination of long-term warming rate and recent increase.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01061-4 |
| spellingShingle | B. H. Samset C. Zhou J. S. Fuglestvedt M. T. Lund J. Marotzke M. D. Zelinka Steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990 Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990 |
| title_full | Steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990 |
| title_fullStr | Steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990 |
| title_short | Steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990 |
| title_sort | steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01061-4 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bhsamset steadyglobalsurfacewarmingfrom1973to2022butincreasedwarmingrateafter1990 AT czhou steadyglobalsurfacewarmingfrom1973to2022butincreasedwarmingrateafter1990 AT jsfuglestvedt steadyglobalsurfacewarmingfrom1973to2022butincreasedwarmingrateafter1990 AT mtlund steadyglobalsurfacewarmingfrom1973to2022butincreasedwarmingrateafter1990 AT jmarotzke steadyglobalsurfacewarmingfrom1973to2022butincreasedwarmingrateafter1990 AT mdzelinka steadyglobalsurfacewarmingfrom1973to2022butincreasedwarmingrateafter1990 |