Strategically robust urban planning? A demonstration of concept
Planning for the future is inherently risky. In most systems, exogenous driving forces affect any strategy's performance. Uncertainty about the state of those driving forces requires strategies that perform well in the face of a range of possible, even improbable, future conditions. This study...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
Pion Ltd.
2016
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/100713 |
| _version_ | 1811094116893720576 |
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| author | Swartz, Peter Goodings Zegras, P. Christopher |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science Swartz, Peter Goodings Zegras, P. Christopher |
| author_sort | Swartz, Peter Goodings |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Planning for the future is inherently risky. In most systems, exogenous driving forces affect any strategy's performance. Uncertainty about the state of those driving forces requires strategies that perform well in the face of a range of possible, even improbable, future conditions. This study formalizes the relationship between different methods proposed in the literature for rigorously exploring possible futures and then develops and applies the computational technique of scenario discovery to the policy option of a subsidy for low-income households in downtown Lisbon. The work demonstrates one way in which urban models can be applied to identify robust urban development strategies. Using the UrbanSim model, we offer the first known example of applying computational scenario-discovery techniques to the urban realm. We construct scenarios from combinations of values for presumed exogenous variables—population growth rate, employment growth rate, gas prices, and construction costs—using a Latin-hypercube-sample experimental design. We then data mine the resulting alternative futures to identify scenarios in which an example policy fails to achieve its goals. This demonstration of concept aims to lead to a new practical application of integrated urban models in a way that quantitatively tests the strategic robustness of urban interventions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:55:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/100713 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:55:21Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Pion Ltd. |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1007132022-09-29T17:04:26Z Strategically robust urban planning? A demonstration of concept Swartz, Peter Goodings Zegras, P. Christopher Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Urban Studies and Planning Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division Zegras, P. Christopher Swartz, Peter Goodings Zegras, P. Christopher Planning for the future is inherently risky. In most systems, exogenous driving forces affect any strategy's performance. Uncertainty about the state of those driving forces requires strategies that perform well in the face of a range of possible, even improbable, future conditions. This study formalizes the relationship between different methods proposed in the literature for rigorously exploring possible futures and then develops and applies the computational technique of scenario discovery to the policy option of a subsidy for low-income households in downtown Lisbon. The work demonstrates one way in which urban models can be applied to identify robust urban development strategies. Using the UrbanSim model, we offer the first known example of applying computational scenario-discovery techniques to the urban realm. We construct scenarios from combinations of values for presumed exogenous variables—population growth rate, employment growth rate, gas prices, and construction costs—using a Latin-hypercube-sample experimental design. We then data mine the resulting alternative futures to identify scenarios in which an example policy fails to achieve its goals. This demonstration of concept aims to lead to a new practical application of integrated urban models in a way that quantitatively tests the strategic robustness of urban interventions. MIT-Portugal Program (Portugal. Foundation for International Cooperation inScience, Technology and Higher Education) National Science Foundation (U.S.). Graduate Research Fellowship (Grant DGE-0940067/1122374) 2016-01-06T02:32:31Z 2016-01-06T02:32:31Z 2013 2012-07 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0265-8135 1472-3417 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/100713 Goodings Swartz, Peter, and P Christopher Zegras. “Strategically Robust Urban Planning? A Demonstration of Concept.” Environ. Plann. B 40, no. 5 (2013): 829–845. en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/b38135 Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ application/pdf Pion Ltd. Prof. Zegras via Peter Cohn |
| spellingShingle | Swartz, Peter Goodings Zegras, P. Christopher Strategically robust urban planning? A demonstration of concept |
| title | Strategically robust urban planning? A demonstration of concept |
| title_full | Strategically robust urban planning? A demonstration of concept |
| title_fullStr | Strategically robust urban planning? A demonstration of concept |
| title_full_unstemmed | Strategically robust urban planning? A demonstration of concept |
| title_short | Strategically robust urban planning? A demonstration of concept |
| title_sort | strategically robust urban planning a demonstration of concept |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/100713 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT swartzpetergoodings strategicallyrobusturbanplanningademonstrationofconcept AT zegraspchristopher strategicallyrobusturbanplanningademonstrationofconcept |