US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits
We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops' yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming futu...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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IOP Publishing
2016
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/100822 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5533-6570 |
| _version_ | 1811085527869292544 |
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| author | Wing, Ian Sue Monier, Erwan Stern, Ari Mundra, Anupriya |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science Wing, Ian Sue Monier, Erwan Stern, Ari Mundra, Anupriya |
| author_sort | Wing, Ian Sue |
| collection | MIT |
| description | We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops' yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming's economic effects on major crops are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B). |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:11:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/100822 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:11:00Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1008222022-10-01T13:36:01Z US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits Wing, Ian Sue Monier, Erwan Stern, Ari Mundra, Anupriya Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change Monier, Erwan We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops' yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming's economic effects on major crops are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B). United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Climate Change Division (Cooperative Agreement XA-83600001) United States. Dept. of Energy. Office of Biological and Environmental Research (Grant DEFG02-94ER61937) 2016-01-14T00:19:44Z 2016-01-14T00:19:44Z 2015-10 2015-09 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1748-9326 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/100822 Wing, Ian Sue, Erwan Monier, Ari Stern, and Anupriya Mundra. “US Major Crops’ Uncertain Climate Change Risks and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Benefits.” Environmental Research Letters 10, no. 11 (October 28, 2015): 115002. © 2015 IOP Publishing Ltd https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5533-6570 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/115002 Environmental Research Letters Creative Commons Attribution http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ application/pdf IOP Publishing IOP Publishing |
| spellingShingle | Wing, Ian Sue Monier, Erwan Stern, Ari Mundra, Anupriya US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits |
| title | US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits |
| title_full | US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits |
| title_fullStr | US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits |
| title_full_unstemmed | US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits |
| title_short | US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits |
| title_sort | us major crops uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/100822 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5533-6570 |
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