Methane mitigation timelines to inform energy technology evaluation
Energy technologies emitting differing proportions of methane (CH[subscript 4]) and carbon dioxide (CO[subscript 2]) vary significantly in their relative climate impacts over time, due to the distinct atmospheric lifetimes and radiative efficiencies of the two gases. Standard technology comparisons...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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IOP Publishing
2016
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/100897 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9296-7865 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6305-2105 |
| _version_ | 1811082686274469888 |
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| author | Roy, Mandira Edwards, Morgan Rae Trancik, Jessika E. |
| author2 | MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society |
| author_facet | MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society Roy, Mandira Edwards, Morgan Rae Trancik, Jessika E. |
| author_sort | Roy, Mandira |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Energy technologies emitting differing proportions of methane (CH[subscript 4]) and carbon dioxide (CO[subscript 2]) vary significantly in their relative climate impacts over time, due to the distinct atmospheric lifetimes and radiative efficiencies of the two gases. Standard technology comparisons using the global warming potential (GWP) with a fixed time horizon do not account for the timing of emissions in relation to climate policy goals. Here we develop a portfolio optimization model that incorporates changes in technology impacts based on the temporal proximity of emissions to a radiative forcing (RF) stabilization target. An optimal portfolio, maximizing allowed energy consumption while meeting the RF target, is obtained by year-wise minimization of the marginal RF impact in an intended stabilization year. The optimal portfolio calls for using certain higher-CH[subscript 4]-emitting technologies prior to an optimal switching year, followed by CH[subscript 4]-light technologies as the stabilization year approaches. We apply the model to evaluate transportation technology pairs and find that accounting for dynamic emissions impacts, in place of using the static GWP, can result in CH[subscript 4] mitigation timelines and technology transitions that allow for significantly greater energy consumption while meeting a climate policy target. The results can inform the forward-looking evaluation of energy technologies by engineers, private investors, and policy makers. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:07:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/100897 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:07:19Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1008972022-10-01T08:20:52Z Methane mitigation timelines to inform energy technology evaluation Roy, Mandira Edwards, Morgan Rae Trancik, Jessika E. MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division Roy, Mandira Edwards, Morgan Rae Trancik, Jessika E. Energy technologies emitting differing proportions of methane (CH[subscript 4]) and carbon dioxide (CO[subscript 2]) vary significantly in their relative climate impacts over time, due to the distinct atmospheric lifetimes and radiative efficiencies of the two gases. Standard technology comparisons using the global warming potential (GWP) with a fixed time horizon do not account for the timing of emissions in relation to climate policy goals. Here we develop a portfolio optimization model that incorporates changes in technology impacts based on the temporal proximity of emissions to a radiative forcing (RF) stabilization target. An optimal portfolio, maximizing allowed energy consumption while meeting the RF target, is obtained by year-wise minimization of the marginal RF impact in an intended stabilization year. The optimal portfolio calls for using certain higher-CH[subscript 4]-emitting technologies prior to an optimal switching year, followed by CH[subscript 4]-light technologies as the stabilization year approaches. We apply the model to evaluate transportation technology pairs and find that accounting for dynamic emissions impacts, in place of using the static GWP, can result in CH[subscript 4] mitigation timelines and technology transitions that allow for significantly greater energy consumption while meeting a climate policy target. The results can inform the forward-looking evaluation of energy technologies by engineers, private investors, and policy makers. MIT Energy Initiative Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Charles E. Reed Faculty Initiative Fund New England University Transportation Center (DOT Grant DTRT12-G-UTC01) National Science Foundation (U.S.). Graduate Research Fellowship (Grant 1122374) 2016-01-18T21:34:09Z 2016-01-18T21:34:09Z 2015-11 2015-10 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1748-9326 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/100897 Roy, Mandira, Morgan R Edwards, and Jessika E Trancik. “Methane Mitigation Timelines to Inform Energy Technology Evaluation.” Environmental Research Letters 10, no. 11 (November 1, 2015): 114024. © 2015 IOP Publishing Ltd https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9296-7865 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6305-2105 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114024 Environmental Research Letters Creative Commons Attribution http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ application/pdf IOP Publishing IOP Publishing |
| spellingShingle | Roy, Mandira Edwards, Morgan Rae Trancik, Jessika E. Methane mitigation timelines to inform energy technology evaluation |
| title | Methane mitigation timelines to inform energy technology evaluation |
| title_full | Methane mitigation timelines to inform energy technology evaluation |
| title_fullStr | Methane mitigation timelines to inform energy technology evaluation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Methane mitigation timelines to inform energy technology evaluation |
| title_short | Methane mitigation timelines to inform energy technology evaluation |
| title_sort | methane mitigation timelines to inform energy technology evaluation |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/100897 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9296-7865 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6305-2105 |
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